Sudan: People's Revolution, Bashir in Power and Uncertain Future

And finally they reached it.

The generation that led the uprising lived all its life under Bashir's tenure, which began 30 years ago. Protesters are mostly young professionals directly affected by the policies of Islamization and Arabization of the regime.

These policies have been particularly detrimental to women's rights and freedoms, which is why young Sudanese women are at the heart of this uprising. These policies have also triggered years of conflict and insecurity in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile.

Sudan's system of government was already severely degraded due to years of autocracy, nepotism, corruption, and violent conflict.

The dismissal of Bashir can shake the foundations of the country if a strong successor is not found to replace him. However, in my opinion, if one takes into account the history of the Sudanese government, it is unlikely that the democratic preferences of many young demonstrators will be translated into reality. Their expectations of a functional democracy, with free and fair elections and constitutional freedoms, will only be met if the next president of the country is a reformer.

The regime reacted to the uprising in three ways.

In the first place, Bashir tried to quickly reconstitute his power by proposing constitutional amendments allowing him to be re-elected in 2020. This measure was quickly dismissed.

He then declared the state of national emergency for one year. The state of emergency prohibited unauthorized meetings and movements. The violence unleashed as the regime used the hard hand to end the protests.

Al Bashir also dissolved the government and replaced the nearly 18 governors with army officers. He ordered Parliament to delay the deliberation on the proposed amendments to the constitution, which would allow him to run in the elections next year.

The demonstrations did not stop, so he launched a great dialogue.

In an attempt to stay in power, Bashir also addressed those who had already backed him economically several times: the countries of the Persian Gulf, Egypt, and Russia. However, these allies have not offered much more than vague statements of support.

He also lost the support of those who supported him in the West: formerly friends with Bashir, they began to send severe warnings.

By the time Bashir resigned, the protests had spread to more than 35 cities nationwide. The population has invaded more and more streets following the first demonstration in Atbara, a town north of the Nile.

The current uprising was triggered by the government's decision to eliminate subsidies for staple foods and significantly increase the price of bread. In a few weeks, protests from Atbara reached the capital, Khartoum, 349 kilometers away.

As protests erupted across the country, agents of the powerful National Intelligence and Security Service and riot police began persecuting protesters. However, the armed forces refrained from intervening. Rumors have begun to circulate about Bashir's intention to give power to the army. But Hbadan Ismail, Minister of Information and spokesman for the government, quickly denied this information.

A few days before Bashir's resignation, thousands of protesters arrived at the ministry headquarters in Khartoum. There is also the residence of the president, the headquarters of the armed forces and the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense.

The protesters then went further and tried to get support from the army. It seemed that older officers were weakening or that they were hoping to use the demonstrations to pressure some factions of the ruling elite.

Protesters used various tactics to keep the movement going, including using social networks such as Facebook, Twitter and WhatsApp. Networks play an important role, despite government efforts to block users. In addition, virtual private networks were used to try to access the only female chat on Facebook, called "Minbar Chat".

The videos recorded by the protesters were crucial in documenting crimes perpetrated by security forces during peaceful protests. They were also the main means of informing the Sudanese people and the international community of the brutality of the Bashir regime.

Now that the Bashir has resigned, he will probably have to leave the country through a safe pbadage agreement to a friendly country, perhaps Egypt or Qatar. The only way to stay in Sudan is to have a prior agreement with the army to ensure its security. It is possible that the new generals you named after the declaration of the state of emergency support him. In fact, his support could have been one of the reasons why Bashir decided to resign.

With regard to the future, with or without the Bashir, demonstrations can continue if the Sudanese people understand that many of the oppressive regime's leaders are still on the game board.

This article, originally published in The Conversation Africa, was translated into Spanish by Silvia Munín with the collaboration of Casa África.

Andrew Edward Tchie: publisher, database on armed conflict; Researcher, Conflict, Security and Development at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, King's College London