Swine disease in China affects world meat markets

XIJIAHE, China – The victims of this epidemic are dying horribly.

First, there is a very high fever. The skin becomes red and purple. There are secretions in the eyes and nose, bloody diarrhea and, a few days later, death. The survival rate is almost nil.

According to China's official calculations, the current outbreak of African swine fever, which affects pigs but is safe for humans, has become catastrophic. According to the Chinese government, more than a million pigs have been slaughtered. More than one billion people who love pork are facing many other restrictions on supply. The need to fill this gap affects meat markets around the world.

However, the reality of the epidemic could be even darker. During interviews, many farmers stated that they had not informed local authorities of potential infections in their animals. Others said that officials had not responded quickly to reported outbreaks.

As a result, many farmers and livestock badysts badume that this highly contagious disease has infected more pigs and in more places than the Chinese authorities recognize.

When Ge Xiuxiu's pigs started dying this year, he did not inform the authorities. Ge, 48, doubts that the government can afford to keep its promise to compensate farmers like him who have been affected by the epidemic.

"To tell them that would not have made any difference," he said in front of his farm in Xijiahe, a town in China's Shandong Province. "Who would have done something about it? Whoever wants to do something must pay."

The need to fight African swine fever could not be more urgent for China, the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. However, it seems that the official response is adapting to a series of past crises related to the health and safety of the population in the country, including the AIDS epidemic in the 1990s, the epidemic of respiratory syndrome severe acute beginning of the decade of the two thousand and widespread contamination of baby preparations in 2008.

The tendency of the authorities to hide these problems is creating mistrust among the population; which makes the problems even more difficult to solve.

In the current crisis, not only farmers and industry experts are mistrusting, but also consumers. Some Chinese customers, who doubt claims that the disease does not harm people's health, are beginning to avoid pork consumption.

African swine fever, for which there is no treatment or vaccine, has spread to all provinces and regions of China; He has also crossed the border with Cambodia, Mongolia and Vietnam. Analysts at the Dutch bank Rabobank, which gives huge loans to the world's agricultural industry, have predicted that China will produce between 150 and 200 million fewer pigs this year because of those who have died. the infection or have been eliminated. This would be a considerable part of the 700 million pigs slaughtered in China in 2018.

The Chinese economy, already slowing down, is starting to feel the effects. In March, rising pork prices allowed inflation to reach its highest level in five months. The supply of live pigs in the country has dropped by a fifth compared to a year ago. The government, before the shortage, brought frozen pork to increase its strategic reserve. US pork futures rebounded, with financial traders betting that China buys more US beef.

China introduced new hygiene requirements, imposed quarantines and restricted the transport of pigs. However, these measures will have limited use if the authorities do not have a complete picture of the problem, or if they have it but do not share it with the population.

"There is no way to control something that we do not recognize exists," said Christine McCracken, an badyst at Rabobank. In places where infections have not been reported or recognized, farmers and pork producers may not be able to take adequate safety measures, he said. They can even sell and treat infected animals. African swine fever can last for weeks or months in raw or frozen pork.

"It's enough for a piece of infected meat to enter the chain to contaminate everything again," McCracken said.

Throughout the country, the timing and pattern of confirmed cases indicate that infections are reported in some areas long after the pigs have become ill, said Bi Jie, a livestock specialist in Tai, a city in the country . Shandong Province.

In August, the government reported the first case of African swine fever in China's northeastern Liaoning Province. In a few weeks, other cases have been reported in provinces hundreds of kilometers to the south.

It is unlikely that the disease has traveled so fast, said Bi. It is more likely that pigs were infected in all these places weeks before the official announcement of outbreaks. "If we badyze the reported situation, there are things that can not be explained," he said.

The Ministry of Agriculture has not responded to the request sent to it by fax for comments.

Shandong, where Xijiahe is located, is China's second most populous province and a major producer of pigs. However, until now, the national government has confirmed only one case of African swine fever in Shandong.

Previously, Shandong's pork products had tested positive for this disease in Taiwan and in the city of Hangzhou in the east. However, the authorities did not report any infections at that time in Shandong.

According to an internal report released in January by Jinan administrators and consulted by the New York Times, animal health inspection offices in Shandong provincial capital, Jinan, do not have enough staff or funds.

"This makes it difficult to prevent and control African swine fever," the report says.

Recently, after the reporters discovered several piles of rotting pigs near Shandong villages, a local official was interviewed on television when he became aware of the illegal dumps. The TV presenter repeated this question eight times before the manager, visibly uncomfortable, admits that no.

In Hejiage, a village in Shandong, He Shuxia lost pigs this year because of what appeared to be the dreaded plague. However, he did not inform the authorities.

The animals died very quickly, he said. He also feared further polluting his farm by receiving strangers or leaving him.

In nearby Junan County, no farmer has contacted the Livestock Industry Bureau's Disease Control Center to report possible cases of African swine fever, said Zhao Guihua, deputy director of the center. .

However, Zhao mentioned that he had received a call from a breeder whose pig had chewed a wire and had been electrocuted.

When asked why the breeders would not have reported infected pigs, Zhao said the only reason he could think was because they did not have any.

The shortage of pork in China depends on the speed with which farmers start raising pigs again.

In Hejiage, he stated that he was always afraid to do it. Ge, in Xijiahe, said he and his wife could try growing strawberries this year.

"We have nothing left," he said.

Luz Ding collaborated in the investigation.

* Copyright: c.2019 New York Times Press Service