Swine fever threatens China again | An op …

The African swine fever (ASF) which has reduced the Chinese pig herd by 50 percent in recent years, threatens regrowth in this country thanks to new variants of the virus. As if a pandemic were not enough, ASF, which needs to be clarified does not affect humans and which seemed to be a problem overcome by China, the world’s largest pork consumer, is lurking again. Over the past few weeks they have turned on you alert. Production difficulties in China are fueling opportunities in other countries, such as Argentina. This This implies not only higher potential sales of pork, but of all types of animal meat., including beef, which is positive for the country in terms of currencies but also adds pressure on local inflation, as seen in recent months.

Global production of pork meat it is estimated at around 100 million tonnes, lower than the production of chicken meat (136 million tonnes) and higher than that of beef (72 million tonnes). the the market is dominated by China, the main producer, with almost 40 percent of the total, about 40 million tonnes per year. It is followed by the United States, Germany, Spain, Brazil, Russia, Vietnam and Canada.

The level of world production has declined over the past two years. This decrease is explained by the impact of African swine fever (ASF) in China. ASF does not affect humans, but it is very harmful to livestock. In recent years, it has severely slowed production in China and has also complicated the pork sector in Europe.

While the ASF problem seems to have been resolved, the logical delay in the re-composition of the pig herd and the China’s conviction on the need to diversify risks by offshoring production stimulates imports. The new difficulties that appear with the PPA are mounted on this process.

The information provided by the Asian giant indicates that the domestic price of pork in this country has the lowest value in a year and a half, although it is still well above the values ​​before 2019. In recent weeks, there was reports in areas of northern China where producers had to slaughter 20 percent of pig offspring due to ASF regrowthReuters reported. Among the causes of regrowth, we mention “an exceptionally cold winter, a high density of pigs after a year of restocking and new strains of African fever”. Moody’s agency also warned of the epidemic.

Serious supply problems with pork, which is the most consumed meat in China’s domestic market of 1.4 billion people, has pushed meat imports from all possible destinations. In the case of Argentina, beef exports have improved significantly: in 2020, 29 percent of the national meat production was exported, a record of around 917 thousand tonnes, half of which went to China, whose purchases have increased tenfold compared to 2015. In February last, 45 were exported 1,000 tons of product weight “. the best February in decades,” they say in the sector, of which 75% went to China. At the same time, the pressure of exports on production The local government has pushed up domestic beef prices, in fact the government considers this to be one of the areas of high inflation in recent times.

In pork, local production has doubled over the past ten years and around 700,000 tonnes are produced annually. Thus, Argentina is well below Germany (4.9 million tonnes), Spain (4.2), France (2.0) and Denmark (1.5 million) with greater acreage and greater availability of grain. For it China is looking to invest in production through the famous agreement that we will see for now. From this agreement, some 900,000 tonnes of production per year could be incorporated into large farms destined for the export market.