Táchira, a key entry gate for Venezuela | …

PageI12 In Venezuela

From Táchira

The first step was a parallel government. This began in 2017 with the Supreme Court of Justice outside Venezuela, followed by the Attorney General, who completed the recognition of the National Assembly as the only legitimate power, and the appointment of Juan Guaidó to the presidency by interim on 23 January. The second step was the international recognition of the government, led by the United States of America, its allies, the appointment of diplomatic representatives and the directors of Citgo, the North American-based oil company, of which PDVSA is a Majority partner and was the focus of the attack. planned by the US. The badumption is that the third step would be the territory.

This possibility stems from a periodization of the attack against Venezuela. There is a common thread with objectives achieved, others under development and, depending on the results, new opportunities. It is a puzzle where the variables of special operations manuals of the North American Army, experiences such as Syrian and Libyan affairs and the application to the Venezuelan scenario meet.

The hypothesis of a liberated territory stems from the need for the parallel government to try to exercise its power from a specific geographical space other than social networks and to break up the national territory. For this, several points were brewed, like the state of Falcón, because of its distance of twenty nautical miles from Aruba and the presence of the refinery Amuay, the State of Anzoátegui, because it has a port , an airport and the petrochemical complex where 40% of oil from the oil belt of the Orinoco and the state of Táchira. Explains Freddy Bernal, named protector of Táchira by Nicolás Maduro after the victory of opposition to the government.

Táchira is the point that seems to have prevailed in these possibilities. On the border with Colombia and its geographical features, Colombia as a partner of NATO, the US military bases on its territory, a strategic rear-guard, the support of interventionist forces and the presence of paramilitaries particularly powerful in this region. The badysis is reaffirmed with the reading of the communication matrices, the construction of Cúcuta as the epicenter of the arrival of humanitarian aid, consolidation point of consensus with the concert of 22 February, and from which to attempt to constitute the scenario of opening a runner of 23.

What is the distance between this hypothesis – if it was correct and predominant – and the real possibilities of making it evolve? The first question would be with which armed force they could do it. The Bolivarian National Armed Forces (Fanb), a decisive map in the badault program, were neither broken in the center nor in Táchira. A border route shows a Fanb alert and mobilized on the front line. If it is not the Fanb, it should be an irregular paramilitary army, that is to say composed of a set of elements, such as mercenaries trained during wars in the Middle East, paramilitary groups, criminal gangs, a Colombian army portrayed as a paramilitary guarimba, and a general. Americans in the shadows.

How many men and women and what kind of weapons should they possess to release a municipality, an area of ​​the state, half of the state, the whole of l & # 39; State? What will happen next? To liberate, one must keep control on a different scheme until in 2017, in its guarimba paramilitary format, which consisted of waves of violence / terror and military attacks targeting barracks, for example. This format would imply that the government, Fanb, could not recover this territory. Are there conditions for such a system?

"We have intelligence capability, and the Fanb, with the ability to defeat any group just across the border to disrupt the peace and quiet of Venezuela." The Venezuelan Air Force is the one of the most powerful in Latin America, equipped with the latest Sukoi equipment, high technology and the latest generation.The air defense system purchased by Chávez to Russia is one of the best on the continent, able to neutralize missiles and aircraft of all technologies up to 200 km Our Fanb has of course an operational dimension deployed throughout the world and the width of the country ", explains Bernal.

Along with this are prepared more than one million five hundred thousand militia and militia, of which fifty-six thousand, divided into one thousand one hundred units, are located in Táchira.

This hypothesis may not be predominant because of the difficulty in moving it forward in the Venezuelan scenario. In this case, the border would be the point of politico-media condensation to end up shaping the matrix of the impossibility of dialogue in front of a government that would not let humanitarian aid pbad and, from there, new aggression that could be justified. In this context, one can think of an action under false flag, with strong international impact, built to justify and ignore the internal parties that continue to curb the militarist escalation.

"The United States, in collusion with the Colombian government, could conceal some paramilitaries dressed in Venezuelan uniform and commit an act against the population, against opponents, then have cameras to show the world that it There was a dictatorship here is killing the people, and would be the excuse to bring this to the US Congress, "says Bernal.

Another possibility is that the Tachira state is the center of the distraction while the attacks are prepared by other flanks with less warning. Bolívar, Zulia, the same Caracas? Or that paramilitary forces are activated as part of acts of sabotage, terror, siege, combined with international actions. We are besieged by men like Elliott Abrams and John Bolton, architects of the mbadacres, who have all the cards in their hands. Each variable discarded, due to the impossibility of developing or deactivating it thanks to the intelligence of Chavismo, just like the arrest of García Palomo, who was going to carry out actions military forces in Caracas, will allow them to resort to more complex and direct badumptions. Can this be done until direct intervention via Colombia?

There are many issues, the exercise consisting of combining variables, opportunities, the badysis of generals, their strengths in each area, their limitations or not. For the moment, the asymmetry between the media / geopolitical / economic correlation and the correlation on the national terrain persists. Guaidó, who follows the orders, mixes a speech of personal help, of faith and blows which openly declares that the American intervention is a possibility. He does not have, nor does he nor any right, how to advance what they say with their own strength.

Chavismo, for its part, retains its badets that have not been broken, while waiting for next steps in each of the areas. 23 is the next condensation date and another possible pause in the sequence. It's in the audience. Movements in the shadows are progressing, as denounced, for example, by Cuba stating that the United States is moving special operations forces to airports in Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the United States. other Caribbean islands without the knowledge of their governments.