Tension between China and the United States has brought soybeans down in Chicago

Soybean has had its lowest price in Chicago in the last decade due to the application of tariffs between the United States and China, in their bilateral trade, and significant stocks of the United States. During yesterday's round, the ton of oilseeds was valued at $ 292 a tonne, after touching $ 290 at the start of operations, as indicated by the Chicago Mercantil Exchange's list. On the other hand, the local market had a good start to the week in the Rosario Stock Exchange trading area, with a very active market driven by export demand for coarse grains with immediate delivery and taking off from the weak in the market. northern country.

In yesterday's round, the region's open offer for soya beans with unloading was 210 USD / t or its equivalent in pesos at the daily exchange rate (9,430 USD / t) , same value as during the session. previous. The export was openly offering $ 9,500 / t per packaged soybean room with immediate delivery, not excluding any better ones.

Planting delays in the US Midwest could result in the transfer of part of the corn acreage to soybeans, which would increase already large stocks of oilseeds.

Added to this is the intensification of the trade struggle between the two major economies of the world, with the order given by US President Donald Trump to the country's trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, to start imposing tariffs. on all remaining imports from China.

The trade war between the world's two major economic powers, China and the United States, has opened a new chapter that has once again put the agricultural and financial markets on hold, badysts at the Rosario Stock Exchange Julio Calzada warn Federico Di Yenno and Emilce Terré.

In a recent study, specialists have warned that, although the trade war may offer occasional business opportunities in the field of pork or soy, the net effect on the Argentine economy is barely positive. "Argentina is highly dependent on international trade and external financing, and the decline of these two factors exacerbates the vulnerability of the international economy in general and our country in particular," they said.

The Asian giant is the world's largest importer of soybeans and, traditionally, the United States was its largest supplier. The sharp decline in US soybean prices at the height of the conflict last year led to a significant increase in soybean production in the United States as even smaller, more inefficient mills found it profitable to return to business. they reminded the local entity.

Blow at the local industry

In the United States, soybean crushing has reached an all-time high, and as a result, soybean exports have risen 20% to the highest volume in history. "The greater competitiveness of US by-product exports has eroded Argentina's penetration into some key destinations, such as the countries of the European Union," he said.

In this scenario, the price of soybeans in Argentina and the United States has not stopped falling. "Initially, one could expect that the restrictions imposed by China on the purchase of soybeans in the United States could have a positive impact on the price of soybeans in Argentina, but the reality has determined a bearish scenario for oilseeds globally, The world accumulated stocks of unwanted beans ", warn Calzada, Di Yenno and Terré.

In addition, unlike flour, soybeans are concentrated in a single export destination, which increases the vulnerability of Argentina's external accounts (96% of soybean export shipments from the United States). Argentina were destined for China in 2018). .

"The continuation of the trade war would result in further damage for Argentina, its main export product being affected: soy flour," the report says.

Thick harvest

The Federal Revenue Administration (Afip) confiscated 4912 tons of cereals in activities carried out in Córdoba, San Luis, Buenos Aires and Rosario, as part of the Coarse Harvest 2019 operation. The value of the commodity exceeds $ 17 million. Afip used satellites and drones to optimize the results of the operation.