The Argentine economy, the most vulnerable in the world …

Argentina is leading the ranking of the most vulnerable emerging countries, according to the indicator prepared by the Bloomberg agency from figures from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. In this way he moved to second place in Turkey. South Africa completes the podium, while Egypt and Colombia rank respectively fourth and fifth on a list of 20 countries.

Five factors explain Argentina's first place on the podium of the countries displaying the worst economic and financial indicators:

1) Short term external debt / very high GDP ratio (40.5%)

2) Gap of 35.8 percentage points of inflation compared to the target set for the first quarter of this year (Bloomberg takes as a reference the comparison of the 10% announced by the government while respecting the scheme targeting of inflation)

3) Low coverage reserve ratio. It has only 85.9%, against 159.9% in Brazil, 133% in Colombia, 116.1% in Mexico and 239.9% in Peru.

4) Current account deficit of 2% of GDP. Turkey has a surplus of 0.7%, Mexico and Brazil, a deficit of 1.7% and Peru 1.4%, but other countries in the ranking are performing lower than those of Argentina , such as South Africa per cent), Egypt (-2.4), Colombia (-3.9), Indonesia (-2.7) and Chile (-3.2 per cent)

5) Results in bulk in the section entitled "Government Effectiveness" (0.16% vs., for example, 0.85% of Chile that has one of the best indicators in the region).

According to the Bloomberg-designed indicator, Gersan Zurita, vice president of Moody's agency, said Wednesday in a statement that "the growing risk of policy change in Argentina could pose a threat to the access at the market". "This would put significant pressure on the government's liquidity situation and increase debt restructuring opportunities in the next two to three years," he added.

According to the rating agency, the Argentine economy is expected to contract by 1.5% in 2019, after falling 2.5% last year. "This, combined with high inflation and growing political uncertainty, will put several sectors of the economy in jeopardy," the agency said in a statement.

The US rating agency estimates that provinces and municipalities will be penalized by lower tax collections, higher levels of spending and foreign currency debt, while companies will be exposed to the weakening of the economy. economy and money, as well as uncertainty about the future of government policies.

In fact, last week, Moody's went from "stable" to "negative" to the credit prospects of eight provinces, the federal capital and the municipality of Cordoba, amid a worsening of expectations for the future from the country.

The rating agency also announced that it was changing the outlook from stable to negative for ten Argentine service and infrastructure companies. The companies concerned by this change of rating are Camuzzi Gas Pampeana, Distributorora Gas Gas S.A, Naturgy Ban, Metrogas, Empresa Distribuidora de Electricidad Salta and Empresa Distribuidora Norte. Similarly, the provincial energy company of Córdoba, Albanesi SA Generación Mediterráneo, Transportadora de Gas del Sur and the company YPF Energía Eléctrica are on the list of ten companies.

The decision to maintain ratings, but to change the outlook for the future of these Argentine companies, was taken by Moody's risk rating agent for Latin America. This change is due to the revision of the perspective of the B2 rating of the Argentine government, which went from stable to negative on July 12, and reflects the exposure of these companies to the regulatory and operational environment of the country. # 39; Argentina. "The examination of the negative rating outlook for the issuers listed above mainly reflects the negative outlook of the sovereign as all companies remain subject to regulation and the local operating environment," said the company's chief executive. 39, rating agency.