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Despite weak returns this year, recent central bank announcements may have changed the outlook for peso traders.
Earning money with the Argentine peso required nerves of steel, a great time and a lot of confidence.
The Trans-Branded Peso fell more than any other pair in a broader group of major currencies this year, against a backdrop of persistent inflation, weak economic activity and deficits. However, high interest rates provide a good cushion for traders willing to take the risk.
Since the central bank began raising rates with a mbadive rise in late August, traders, convinced of the ability of policymakers to boost confidence enough to keep the market at 15% profits. The peso sank around 13% during this period.
It depends on when you participated. Operators who waited until this year only gained 0.3%, the second worst of Latin American currencies.
Despite weak returns this year, recent central bank announcements may have changed the outlook for peso traders. By stating that he would not buy dollars if the currency appreciated beyond the lower limit of the no-intervention zone, now set at 39.75 for a US dollar, the managers have significantly reduced the risk of rapid depreciation, which could have left some margin.
Retailers also made Treasury sales up in November in the range of $ 9.5 billion US, as well as potential entries related to the harvest season. The government's decision to freeze prices for some goods and services, which could not stop inflation in Latin America's recent history, can at least prevent a rise in CPI figures in the short run. term, paving the way for investors earn money.
The biggest risk for traders is the presidential election in October. The re-election of Mauricio Macri is far from such, volatility can increase and erode potential returns.
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