The arrest of Temer complicates Bolsonaro's resistance to his pension reform

What first thing Thursday seemed to be a relief for Jair Bolsonaro yesterday has become a problem in the making. Some have speculated that the arrest of his predecessor, Michel Temer, accused of corruption in the course of the Lava Jato operation, would deflect the public attention of Bolsonaro, whose image falls just over two months after taking office. However, the Brazilian media pointed out yesterday that the arrest of Temer complicates the political establishment of the ruling party in Congress to get things done. his pension reform project, one of the pillars of the new government's economic program.

Bolsonaro does not have the majority and demands three-fifths of the votes of deputies and senators so that the project takes place in Parliament. Even before Temer's arrest, there were doubts about the government's ability to obtain the necessary support from the so-called "allied base" of the parliament. Now, the arrest of the former president raises uncertainty to the extent that the party tradition interprets the fall of Temer as a new judicial message against "the old policy".

Tensions between Congress and the executive were exposed yesterday at the voice of a key figure: the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), who had personally negotiated with lawmakers for get the votes for pension reform. . In addition to Temer, the federal police had arrested the former minister Thursday Wellington Moreira Franco (see infographic), who is the father-in-law of Maia's wife.

Former Brazilian President Michel Temer arrested for his case Lava Jato

It appeared yesterday that, after Temer's detention, Maia suspended all planned activities and contacted the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, to warn of what will happen: from now on, getting votes for the reform will be the sole responsibility of Bolsonaro. That they do not rely on him for that. The frictions between Maia and the executive are also not new: the president of the deputies is faced with the former judge Sérgio Moro, Minister of Justice of Bolsonaro and, precisely, great architect of the Operation Lava Jato.

Aware of the crisis at the door, the operators of Bolsonarism set to work to take off their leader from what could trigger the arrest of Temer and avoid further erosion of the relationship with Congress. According to Folha, in Plbadto, they view the latest events as a new episode in the eternal struggle between the legislature and the judiciary, and believe that it is best that Bolsonaro stays out of the way. "Let everyone answer for his actions," said the Brazilian president.

As if that were not enough, Bolsonaro is not having a good time. According to a poll released this week by Ibope, his approval has dropped 16% since January. "Bolsonaro has the worst popular rating for a new government since Fernando Collor de Mello says PROFILE Brazilian badyst Oliver Stuenkel, professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation. He lost two months that he should have used to explain the reforms and spent a lot of time on non-priority issues. And now, we are concerned about the government's ability to carry out these reforms. "

Pension reform strips Bolsonaro limits

The numbers in red. The Brazilian pension deficit reached a record high last year: $ 77 billion, or more than 4% of GDP. Brazil has already experienced five consecutive years of primary deficit in a context of recessionary or weak growth, while the fiscal impact of social security continues to grow. Today, it accounts for almost 60% of the public budget.

The pension reform project presented by Bolsonaro in Congress promises $ 310 billion in tax savings over the next decade. At Guedes' initiative, the Bolsonaro recipe proposes to establish a minimum retirement age, currently non-existent for private sector workers, 62 for women and 65 for men, with a transition of 12 years towards this regime. At the same time, introduce a voluntary private capitalization scheme, inspired by Chile, which coexists with the current public distribution system.

This is a more than desirable formula for the markets, but more than ever subject to the vagaries of politics.

"I am open to dialogue"

Jair Bolsonaro said yesterday from Santiago de Chile, where he attended the birth of Prosur (see page 30), who ignored the reasons why the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Rodrigo Maia, had decided to no longer seek votes for pension reform. "I want to know why he (Maia) leaves, I'm always open to dialogue, I'm out of Brazil, I just want to know your reasons, I did not give him the reasons to leave," the Brazilian president told the columnists from his country who accompanied him to Chile. The president felt that "only by discussing", it will be possible for Maia to join the work of obtaining the necessary votes for her crucial reform. On Twitter, one of the president's sons, the senator Flavio Bolsonarosaid Maia "is fundamental to approve the reform of the new welfare".