The battle for Libya, an unpredictable conflict at the gates of Europe – 04/08/2019

Libya is on the brink of a generalized war that will radically change the years of diplomatic efforts to reconcile two rival political factions. An advance led by Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the east of the country, makes dialogue diplomats and the UN calls in vain for a truce. The result could shape not only the politics of Libya, but also to the security of the Mediterranean and the importance of democracy in the Middle East and North Africa. Last night, with 34 dead, fighting continued in the vicinity of Tripoli, the capital, between Haftar forces and Prime Minister Fayex al Serraj, recognized by the UN.

Why is Libya back in the spotlight? Three months ago, Haftar – a former ally of the late Libyan leader Muammar Kaddafi and later a CIA ally – launched a series of military offensives in his stronghold in eastern Libya, including taking a petroleum deposit in the country. in the south Its momentum was considered the precursor of an attack against the base of the Libyan rival: the fragile government recognized by the UN. The result could decide whether the country continues on the long path, led by the UN towards a form of democracy that brings together institutions that have long been divided in the country or, conversely, fall into a form of military government like the 39; Egypt.

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The United Nations had to hold a conference on April 14 and 15 to put the country on the path of reconciliation and elections, and Haftar could try to anticipate the conclusions of this conference.

The question is: who controls the country? After the June 2014 elections, the country was split when the House of Representatives withdrew to Tobruk and a group of leaders set up a Tripoli-based opposition administration. The separation reflects the historical division between the Libyan regions of Cyrenaica, east of Benghazi, and Tripolitania, to the west.

But power is divided between a number of coastal cities, mainly tribes and armed groups., some with Islamic inclinations and others not. It is only in Tripoli that there are four militias. The National Oil Corporation is the only national institution in force that has slowly increased support for oil production and is the main source of wealth.

Why is the situation so bad? With a war at the gates of Europe, the country has no democratic tradition, pbaded from the Italian colonial regime to a weak monarchy under King Idris, then to 20 years of dictatorship under Kaddafi. NATO's efforts to form a democracy after the dictator's death in 2011 have failed. Successive efforts by the UN to reconcile the country's factions have failed, largely because of power-sharing disputes and local and international oil interests.

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Turkey and Qatar have largely supported Tripoli, while the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia and Egypt supported Haftar, with growing support from the French. Italy, France and the UN have often organized competing peace processes, sometimes reflecting their commercial interests. The West aims to support the conference planned by the UN.

However, the days ahead and the fight will likely determine whether Haftar feels the need to listen.