The “Battle of Madrid”: the Spanish capital celebrates the most important elections in its history

MADRID.- More than five million Madrilenians are summoned to the polls today to the most important regional elections in the history of the Autonomous Community of Madrid. Never before has an exclusive competition in the capital acquired such a national dimension. The big favorite is the current president, Isabel Diaz Ayuso, of the People’s Party, which could double the result of just two years ago and reach 60 MPs. However, it seems difficult to him to reach 69, the threshold of the absolute majority.

Because of this national resonance, the campaign was one of the hardest in memory, with disqualifications, an altercation in the street, debates with the candidates whom the feud does not allow to end, and even threats of anonymous death. Due to this extreme polarization, and although it is still unfolding in the midst of the pandemic, experts expect significant electoral mobilization, which could exceed the 64% turnout in the last elections. In the early morning, queues formed in many polling stations.

This fact contrasts with the highest abstention recorded in all competitions since the arrival of Covid-19. For example, in the Catalan elections in February, the turnout dropped by almost 20 points. A remarkable novelty is that for the first time the call to the polls falls on a working day instead of a Sunday.. “We don’t know how this will affect, but I think it could benefit the right,” says sociologist Juan José Domínguez. Workers are entitled to four hours off to vote.

According to official data, at 1 p.m., the turnout was 28%, two points more than in 2019. Experts say that a key factor in these elections will be the mobilization of satellite towns south of Madrid, known as the “red belt”, Comme Parla. This city, of nearly 130,000 inhabitants, is a great stronghold of the PSOE, which has occupied the town hall since 1980 with the sole exception of 4 years. At Pinar de los Ríos school, 32% of Parleños had already gone to the polls, almost 6% more than in the last contest.

“I am on the left and what worries me the most is employment and health. I voted for the PSOE because their candidate is a calm man who does not enter into controversy, ”said Rai, a young mother of Dominican origin. However, because they are being held in a pandemic, these are not conventional elections and there could be vote transfers than usual. “I normally voted for the PSOE, but this time I will vote for Ayuso. With his decision to allow the hotel to open when it closed in the rest of Spain, he saved many jobs, ”says Joaquín Rodríguez, a waiter in a downtown bar.

Díaz Ayuso’s main opponent is Angel Gabilondo, the Socialist Party candidate, although the president ignored him to face the president directly Pedro Sanchez. Gabilondo won the last election against a then unknown Díaz Ayuso, but the general impression is that his candidacy was deflated, and there might even be a progress from Más Madrid, a social democratic split from Podemos. The latter have staked a lot by placing Pablo Iglesias at the top of the list, who left the vice-presidency of the government to go to Madrid.

On the flank of the right, Ciudadanos, who has been an uncomfortable government partner for Díaz Ayuso for the past two years, could be kicked out of parliament. The absorption of his voters, disillusioned by his erratic policy of pacts, could be one of the reasons that led the president to call an early election. Without citizens, VOX’s far right might be the only partner available for the PP to form a majority, something the moderate wing of the party does not see favorably, with the Galician president, Núñez Feijoo at the head.

The polls indicate a victory for the right, but the margin is not wide, especially if Ciudadanos does not exceed the 5% threshold and does not win a seat. Therefore, experts do not exclude a surprise, especially if there has been a strong mobilization of neighborhoods in the labor belt of the capital, located to the south. Polls will close at 8 p.m. (3 p.m. in Argentina), and it is expected that around three hours later the tally will already be at an advanced stage.

One of the main themes of the campaign was the debate around the lax policy to fight the Covid-19 epidemic applied by Díaz Ayuso, and this sparked tensions with the central government. While in much of the peninsula bars and restaurants were closed, in Madrid they could open until 11pm. Fiscal policy is another central issue. The ineffable president promised a general reduction in taxes, while the PSOE proposed not to touch them, and that the left refused to increase them.

The end result of the “Battle of Madrid” could mark the future of Spanish politics in the years to come, at least as far as the strategy of the right is concerned. In any case, the conflict of capital will serve to take the pulse of a society which has known the ravages of a very harsh pandemic and appears with a mixture of hope and fear of a return to a certain normality which could include a large-scale social crisis. dimensions.