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Chile’s political scene will be put to the test again this Sunday, as thousands of voters go to the polls to elect their region governors in the second round.
At first it may seem like a local choice. But the truth is, the competition is being watched closely by analysts and pundits because its results can strongly influence the political future of the South American country.
During the last elections of voters, governors (first round), mayors and councilors, held in mid-May, independent candidates from outside the traditional parties prevailed with a margin against the right-wing and center-left blocs which have ruled Chile in the past. Last 30 years.
The result read by experts as a “punishment” to the establishment caused enormous surprise and defied all predictions that had been made until then.
For many, the nation ruled by Sebastien piera “changed” and, according to analysts, much of this phenomenon is explained by what is called the “social explosion“which debuted in October 2019.
“Dignity” and “no more abuse” were some of the phrases that were repeated during protests in Chile.
In this context, Sunday’s vote is of particular importance, as it will show whether this change in Chilean political preferences is being maintained or not.
And that’s all the more important when you consider that there are only five months left until the presidential election, scheduled for November 21.
One of the regions that generates the most expectations is the Metropolitan (which includes the capital, Santiago), where a center-left candidate competes with extensive experience in positions of power, Claudio Orrego, against the candidate supported by the Communist Party (PC) and for him Wide front (FA) a left-wing coalition that erupted a few years ago and challenged the hegemony of traditional pacts, Karina oliva.
This competition is called the “battle of santiago“.
Will the independents and the new leaders still triumph over the representatives of the traditional parties? Will the preference for candidates from a more radical left continue to grow at the expense of the center?
These are some of the questions ahead of the suffrage this weekend in Chile.
Governors-elect
It is the first time that governors have been elected directly by citizens, which marks a historic change in the political structure of the country.
Previously there was the figure of “Mayor“, who was appointed by the outgoing president.
Henceforth, the new regional chief who will take up his duties on July 14th and it will stay on for four years he will become an important counterweight to the president by having popular representation and key powers for decision-making in the region he represents.
The President of Chile, Sebastin Piera.
“The importance of this election is the democratization of regional governments, not only from the point of view of the citizen, but also of the political system itself, because a new actor is incorporated which, without a doubt, will be a counterweight to the central government », Explains the political scientist from the University of Santiago, Pamela Figueroa.
For this reason, for presidential candidates it is of the utmost importance who is elected.
Moreover, the pre-presidential elections have historically been a kind of “thermometer” to measure the political preferences of Chileans.
This is why experts assure that if the balance tilts to the left in the governors, the candidates for the presidential seat of this bloc could benefit more from it, and vice versa.
“The various conglomerates will demonstrate their ability to mobilize and convene people for this second round of governors. And those who win the election will be in a better position to launch the presidential campaign, ”says Figueroa.
The “Battle of Santiago”
The most emblematic case is that of the metropolitan region, where there are more than six million people authorized to vote, which represents almost a third of the total electoral list.
Claudio Orrego is supported by the presidential letter of the Socialist Party (PS), Paula Narvez, and that of the Christian Democracy (DC), Yasna Provost. Although the latter has not yet confirmed his interest in a candidacy, his good positioning in the polls has led several leaders to consider him as such. Orrego is also active in DC.
Claudio Orrego has a long history in positions of power.
In the meantime, Karina Oliva has received the explicit support of the candidate for the presidency of the PC, Daniel Jadû (which is one of the best placed in the polls), and the Frente Amplio, Gabriel Boric.
“If Orrego wins, it is good news for Provoste and for the sector of the traditional left, because they will be able to claim that the people are favorable to his proposals and not to the extreme left”, estimates the political scientist, Bunker Kenneth.
It could also be that the right wing who has been surprisingly excluded from this competition is turning to Orrego.
“Maybe someone could say that if Orrego wins it’s because the right was afraid and voted en masse for him, in the same way the right could vote for Yasna Provoste to prevent Jadue from entering in power “, explains Cristbal Bellolio, doctor. . of political and academic philosophy from the School of Government of the Adolfo Ibez University.
On the contrary, if Oliva is successful, specialists say it will be an “ideal” scenario, especially for Jadue, because the PC has already won the city hall of Santiago with Hirac Hassler in May.
Hirac Hassler (on the megaphone) has become the new mayor of Santiago.
“If Karina Oliva wins the post of governor, it would be interesting because the CP would have the mayor of Santiago and, as an ally, the governor of the metropolitan region. I would say that for Jadue it’s an ideal scenario, ”he said. Bellolio.
The importance of the triumph of regional leaders also lies in the exposure that they will have in the months leading up to the presidential elections.
“The governors are going to be closer to the people, they are going to have a platform that can greatly benefit the candidates,” Bunker said.
This can eventually become a major drawback for candidates from the right-wing bloc. Chile Come on (currently in power), which was not only marginalized from competition in the metropolitan area but also from six other regions.
The ruling coalition has its eyes on the nine regions it has candidates for, three of which are particularly relevant: Arica, Los Ros and Coquimbo.
If he wins none, the electoral debacle suffered by the right in May will be reinforced and will inevitably affect his presidential aspirations.
“Replica” of the social outbreak
But beyond the preference for left, center-left or right, what to be is a choice between traditional leaderships, seen as part of the establishment, and new and disruptive faces, which have profoundly changed Chile over the past 30 years. years.
What is beyond doubt is that the results of these elections will be strongly influenced by a reformulation of the electoral political system Chilean who comes from the social outbreak.
In the demonstrations, a speech against the political class in general and the elites in particular resounded with force.
In addition, issues such as social justice, inequalities and discrimination took to the agenda, shifting the focus of the discussion.
Thus, support for candidates emerged independent and new leadership, which was reflected in the mid-May elections.
This time, several candidates for governor say they are independent and try to dissociate themselves from traditional political blocs (despite the fact that many are supported by them).
“What happened with the elections of May 15 and 16 is a replica of the social outbreak. Several of the discursive elements that were present in the epidemic, such as anti-political, anti-military, anti-establishment, had electoral correlates. What we will see now, with the second round of governors, is whether this response continues to exert its influence, “he explains. Cristbal Bellolio.
The social outbreak provoked a reformulation of the Chilean political system.
For his part, Bunker also asserts that in these elections there will be a competition between “the traditional politics and the new politics”.
“The bet of this new sector is to associate traditional politicians with an excessively complacent and corrupt system of which they are not part,” he said.
In the case of the metropolitan area, Karina oliva who represents a new and young leadership, and calls herself a feminist and a “popular woman”, has taken a distance from Claudio Orrego saying that it is part of “the same as always” and that its project is more akin to Chile “of the pre-social epidemic”.
The representative of the Large Front focused her speech on strengthening the “dignity of the people», A key demand during the demonstrations.
On the contrary, Orrego underlines his long experience in the civil service, from mayor of one of the most popular municipalities in Chile, Pealoln, to mayor and government official. “We are adding something that Oliva does not have, the experience of governing,” said the center-left candidate.
Yet the scenario is not easy for Orrego: despite the fact that initially all analysts were betting on his triumph, Oliva’s popularity increased considerably. And some polls predicted his victory.
“Nobody doubts, from a competition point of view, that he is better prepared. But it seems that being better prepared, or having a more complete program, is not the most decisive thing today”, explains Bellolio. .
The growing feminist movement in Chile has fostered female leadership.
“He’s a white, heterosexual, Catholic, upper-class man, who has had all the political positions there and has to have, who has participated in several governments … Therefore, he is the establishment. instead, she positions herself as a critic of 30 years of Chilean history, she is young, a woman, she has never held public office, Orrego is her perfect opponent.
“The vote for Karina Oliva is a vote against the political class of the last 30 years”, adds the political scientist.
Pamela Figueroa, for her part, underlines the growing preference for female leadership among Chilean voters, which could also work in Oliva’s favor.
“There is a high valuation of women’s leadership. Since the plebiscite, those who increased voter turnout were women and young people, and that explains the renewal of leadership, ”he says.
But experts warn that Orrego’s long experience in territorial work should not be underestimated.
In the home stretch of the governors’ campaign, expectations in Chile have risen dramatically.
We must now wait for the results to have a more precise idea of voters’ preferences after a social crisis as deep as the one this nation has been experiencing since October 2019.
What is happening here, experts say, should also be watched closely by other Latin American countries that are facing outbreaks and crises of representativeness, such as Colombia or Per.
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