The bottom of the curve was short-lived and the coronavirus is developing again, in the middle of summer

Beyond summer that we thought had rightly been won, a little over three weeks ago, occasionally since the long weekend of December 8, cases of coronavirus have again increased. An infectologist consulted called him “alarm“. Other, “push back“. Other, “increase“. Another thought that the name is indistinct and that it is a Byzantine discussion. The truth is that by looking at the newly infected people reported every day (qualified by the average of the previous 7 days, it is a question of avoiding the contingencies which blur the “panorama”), the increase across the country is around 26%, but it worsens sufficiently in the radios of Buenos Aires and Buenos Aires. While the determinations in Buenos Aires doubled, in CABA almost tripled.

Epidemiologically, one piece of information is just that: it is not used to understand the progression of the pandemic. However, symbolically, it could indicate something else. This Tuesday evening, the Nation’s Ministry of Health reported 11,650 newly infected with the coronavirus. You must return to November 19 to review a number of this size, that is to say composed of five digits.

What has happened since? Or rather, what did not happen …

The numbers reflect the actions. On December 29, across the country, 6,700 new cases were recorded daily (on average), while the first week of December there were 5,300. It was hopeful days: in the city of Buenos Aires, there were 250 cases per day; now 700. And in the province of Buenos Aires, 1,300, compared to nearly 2,600 today (still taking last week’s average).

Although the increase may be due to the December holidays and it is not conclusive that the cases will continue to increase, authorities are starting to consider restrictions. And there is no source that ignores the question of how far the population has “relaxed”, despite the recommendations, perhaps relieved by the arrival of the Russian vaccine in the country, which was against -current of another effect which could have been beneficial: more caution, following the warning from Europe. In other words, therefore not trip over the same stone twice.

For the doctors consulted this Wednesday, it is the Chronicle of an announced regrowth.

“I am really very worried,” he said. Arnaldo Casiró, responsible for infectious diseases at Álvarez hospital, before specifying: “The cases are increasing a lot. The situation gets complicated and we go back to the beginning, quickly. We’ll see where to stop this, if at all.

Then he stressed that “people are giving less and less weight to protective measures. Many continue to think that it is over, that the vaccine is miraculous. But it’s not like that and the health team is exhausted. It’s a very complex combo and I don’t know how it’s going to end ”.

Positivity

An infectious disease doctor who preferred not to be named shared a daily impression: “I have a friend who is on the beach, on the coast, who told me a few days ago: ‘I’m the only idiot wearing a chin strap in all of Mar de las Pampas’“.

Increase in coronavirus cases reported on Tuesday could be attributed to what has been done many tests, over 45,000. However, cases reported in one day are not necessarily related to same-day testing, due to the logical delay in getting the results and the data downloads themselves.

Moreover, whoever looks at the daily reports for the last few weeks will see that if between 15,000 and 35,000 diagnostic tests are performed per day, at least two or three times per month they exceed 40,000 (it is not easy to find a logic of the how often it happens, but it does) and reached, in early December, nearly 50,000. Again, the loose data doesn’t say much.

However, the positivity (weekly average) grows slowly and approaches 30% (according to the data on the site CovidStats), a clear indicator that it will be necessary to reinforce the tests again, in order to stop the chain of infections before the thing escalates.

According to Javier Farina, doctor of the Argentine Society of Infectology (SADI), the greater number of tests does not influence this clear increase: “I would define it as’ ringing ‘or’ pushing back ‘, or as’possible second hello“. This is an important ringing case, especially in AMBA. And, yes, that worries. you must be on top because the trend is clearly on the rise“.

There are those who qualify the above data, arguing that “at least severe cases and death“. Farina, with a spoonful of realism, recalled what had already been said several times. AND not very good news: “The hospitalizations in intensive care and the deceased have a delay of three to four weeks. We have to wait for it, not for now but for about January 15th. It is true, anyway, that treatment has been improvedNot because there is a drug that is the miracle solution, but because of the global approach of these patients in intensive care ”.

In addition to chatting with Pablo Scapellato, an infectious disease physician from Santojanni Hospital and SADI, who was concerned and noted that “only by reducing circulation, social contact and improving distance and care “that the increase in cases will be stopped, Bugle speak with Jorge aliaga, tireless follower of Covid-19 curves, researcher at CONICET, former dean of the Faculty of Exact Sciences at UBA and current secretary of planning at Hurlingham National University.

Although he has observed an increase in cases inside the country, now it appears to be “calm”, he explained, and increasing mainly in the country. city and the Province of Buenos Aires.

But “you have to be very attentive to what is going on in the South of the country, which is sometimes misleading because it has few inhabitants and the numbers are lower than in Cordoba or Santa Fe. If you look at the infections per 100,000 inhabitants, it’s complicated from Neuquén down“.

Can we already talk about the second wave? According to Aliaga, “It is a larger and more comprehensive phenomenon that lasts for months. It is too early to say that there is a national effect. Yes, there is growth in AMBA and within the province of Buenos Aires. How long will this last? It depends on the people ”.

GS