The Brexit, at its most dramatic time: the three possible routes for the UK

Theresa May sent the letter to Brussels on March 29, 2017. This triggered Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, which governs the process by which a state can leave the European Union (EU). I knew the road would be winding, but I imagined that two years later, when the time was up, the question would be resolved.

However, anything that could go wrong was even worse. May called for early elections in June 2017 to face bargaining in a strong position, but it was a kick. The Conservative party lost the parliamentary majority and, to continue on Downing Street, had to join the Unionist Party of Northern Ireland (DUP), advocating a total break with the party. ;Europe. It took away his ability to maneuver.

After a year of intense negotiations with the EU, In July 2018, the Prime Minister presented the "Plan of Auditors", a road map for the British exit. It was the beginning of a blockade that remains until today. Outside, European leaders rejected him for realizing that the UK had many claims. Inside, the conservative conservative defends him to the defense as too soft and leaves the country attached to Europe.

In a blow for may, Boris Johnson, Minister of Foreign Affairs and most visible figure of Brexit, has resigned with other members of the cabinet. The defections worsened on 25 November, when the European Council – which brings together the leaders of all the bloc's countries – approved the Checkers plan with some modifications. The most controversial for Tory and for the DUP was the inclusion of the so-called backstop in Ireland, a series of guarantees to prevent the establishment of a hard border on the island.

The May proposal was crushed in Parliament on Jan. 15 by 230 votes apart., becoming the biggest legislative defeat of a British government in history. The president survived a motion of censure and undertook a European tour to renegotiate the agreement, but returned empty-handed. On March 12, the House of Commons again rejected the plan by 149 votes..

Already without any margin of action, May was to go this Friday in Brussels, barely a week from day B to to request the 27 other heads of state to grant him an extension to avoid a Brexit without anesthesia. He wanted to have time until June and without any conditions. But Europe has long ago decided to pay a heavy price in London. It's logical. Facilitating things would involve inviting others to follow their path.

"The EU summit questioned the month of May about the possible consequences of their demands, the Council having found its answers insufficient, He spent a lot of time working in different scenarios and creating incentives for a possible political resolution. exceptional aspects of Brexit, "he said. Infobae Paul Gillespie, Deputy Director of the Institute of British and Irish Studies at University College Dublin.

A divorce without a provident scheme would also be costly for other countries on the continent, particularly the Republic of Ireland. they decided to give it a little air. There will be no break next Friday, but the UK has been forced to choose between three very uncomfortable alternatives.

Until the third is won, The EU has established that Parliament was to approve this week the plan agreed with May to grant a postponement to 22 May.. If lawmakers objected again to this project, Brussels would propose a short extension, until April 12th. In just two weeks, London should reach what it could not in two years: find a different solution, which, according to the rest of Europe and the majority of Commons.

Since it would not be strange that none of these alternatives ends well, the third becomes stronger: that finally the dreaded Brexit difficult, without agreement. The date would not be 29M but 12A, but the consequences would be the same.

"The EU will not renegotiate the agreement reached with MayThe options are therefore: to accept this pact, which is unlikely given what parliamentarians think; leave without any agreement, which is also unlikely; and try to change the situation in the UK, possibly with parliamentary control. But for the moment, we do not know what will happen, because there are too many uncertain things in the country, "said Simon Usherwood, professor at the University of Surrey's Department of Politics, during a dialogue with Infobae.

Scenario 1: quick agreement and "happy ending"

This would be the ideal result for May and for European leaders. The UK would have until May 22 to sanction all the additional laws required by the process, and this day would begin a transition period that could be extended until the end of 2020 or until 2022. Sufficient time for both parties to adapt to the new status of the bilateral relationship.

This is also the least achievable result. There is no reason to expect 75 lawmakers to change their minds and end up accompanying the same pact that they have blocked less than a month ago

There is an additional stumbling block. John Bercow, the eccentric Speaker of the House of Commons, said a few days ago that he was not going to allow this to be debated again. a project that has already been rejected twice, unless there are substantive changes. The government, which intends to vote between Tuesday and Wednesday, should find a way to overcome this obstacle.

"The current plan is to vote on different options, such as the current agreement, the revocation of section 50 This would imply the cancellation of Brexit, the call for a new referendum and the current pact, as well as the formation of a customs union, a common market or a free trade Agreement. Parliamentarians could ultimately support more than one solution and we do not know how the government would react in this case, "he said. Infobae John Paul Salter, professor in the Department of Political Economy of King's College London.

Scenario 2: short extension and uncertainty

If, as expected, the May proposal is again rejected, the new deadline would be April 12. He is completely unsure of what can happen in the two weeks following March 29th. Brussels has simply said that London should find another solution, but we do not know how to find it..

Many lawmakers think the solution is that May resigns. With the prospect of a new Prime Minister unlocking the process, EU could grant further extension to call for early elections. It seems more plausible that May can find a different way out of this isolation in just 15 days.

"What he did Wednesday (accusing Parliament of not resolving the conflict) angered lawmakers and pushed many who voted for his plan to turn around. He convinced several members of his party that he had to leave as soon as possible. The problem is that they tried to overthrow it before Christmas, so they can not call another censure motion until December, "said Salter.

If May refuses to resign, It is difficult to think of a proposal that can be approved by most countries and at the same time meet the requirements of Europe.

"If I put my pessimism aside," Salter continued, "I imagine that a majority could be formed around a solution such as & # 39; Norway + & # 39; (a plan which implies that the United Kingdom has a status similar to that of Norway, which is part of the European Economic Area but not the EU). In this case, a quick round trip with Brussels should be organized to decide whether this can be implemented before 22 May. If the EU is in agreement with the content, but not with time, it is possible that it extends the extension, opening a new round of negotiations, presumably, with another prime Minister. This would mean participating in European elections and perhaps even organizing new general elections. "

It is no coincidence that the closest deadline set by the Council is April 12th. The deadline for the submission of candidates to the European Parliament expires. If there is a Brexit on 12A, the UK would not participate. But, if there was an agreement and another postponement, he should play in the May 26 elections.

"I do not think the House will approve the May Plan unless it is substantially amended and the chances are minimal.. If Parliament can not take charge of the process, which seems difficult because no option attracts the majority, we will be crushed. Alternatives such as the formation of a customs union, a second referendum or an early election seem unlikely. The only way to avoid a non-agreement is for the Prime Minister to be forced to resign, but I am not sure that will happen. We can not be sure of anything, but a Brexit without understanding is quite likely, "said Ash Amin, director of the Department of Geography at the University of Cambridge, accessed by Infobae.

Scenario 3: The most feared result

"Reports suggest that a no-deal is the second option if the House of Commons does not support its plan.For the government machine, it is very difficult to amend the existing legislation, which establishes that the UK should leave the EU on 29 March. May think that this gives him an advantage to vote on his pact, but he turned against all lawmakers by accusing them of dead endIt is very difficult for me to obtain a majority. In addition, many who voted against the plan prefer that there be no agreement rather than accompany theirs, "he said. Infobae Adrian Guelke, Professor Emeritus of the Center for Ethnic Conflict Studies at Queen's University Belfast.

If, after rejecting the Checkers plan for the third time, London does not present any other proposal that can be approved by Europe before April 12, it would automatically be excluded from the union. "The UK would leave the EU without an agreement, with truly horrible social, political and economic consequences. Unfortunately, this seems more feasible than other, more benign results, "added Guelke.

It is reasonable that this possibility is frightening. From one minute to the next, the country would break with a consolidated integration for 46 years. The commercial effects would be most obvious: products that today enter and exit freely will pay tariffs similar to those of any non-European country, closing markets and making goods and services more expensive.

Logistical problems could lead to a shortage of sensitive items, such as medication. Thousands of Britons living in the rest of Europe and Europeans living in the UK would remain in legal stalemate.

These dangers encourage many citizens to seek the unilateral cancellation of Brexit. European courts have decided that London can do this without the consent of its partners. An online petition filed on the Parliament website has already added more than 4 million signatures.

This seems politically unfeasible without early elections or a new plebiscite that somehow cancels the popular mandate of June 23, 2016. But British policy, which has long been bored in a predictable way, has become unfathomable.

"Like most of those who follow Brexit closely, I try to avoid the predictions. There is too much contingency, changing circumstances and British incompetence to allow rational conjecturesGillespie said.