The campaign’s gift to Cristina to bring down the price of meat

There is no celebration of the good news. Completely the opposite. There is a punishment applied because the campaign must be made a political enemy. Needs of the Instituto Patria. But the data is indisputable: this year the field will bring an additional US $ 10 billion to the government. In addition to the demand shock, these exports add up in dollars when there are none: it’s a win-win situation.

What is the government doing with these additional dollars? In the midst of a pandemic and with elections approaching, the obvious option is to increase consumption and use currencies to support it (consumption requires imports). There are justifications: The OECD has ranked the country as the one that will take the longest – around six years – for the G20 to recover what was lost at the worst of the quarantine.

But the fires to be put out are others: the price of food and the impact on poverty. So the main goal after the blue at $ 195 and the macrista experience is to keep the exchange rate stable. May saw the smallest depreciation in 14 months. The quiet dollar and the quiet gap, it is the bet to slow down prices and the emergence of new poor when wages liquefy. Macri used the debt to smooth the outflow of capital from the country and the impact on the dollar; Fernández uses soybeans and stocks. Asterisk: Watch out for the overheating of cash settlement (CCL) in recent weeks.

Without the help of soy and its derivatives. repeatedly degraded by the ruling party, it is likely that the exchange rate would fly in a higher sky than it is now, and that inflation would hit a higher floor, despite the fact that this level has already fallen from 2 , 5% to 4% monthly. The international prices they contain in this movement have the negative counterpart of adding a little more gasoline to the Argentinian table. The commitment to stability led the ruling party to block imports, but the replacement cost of many companies then began to adjust to the CCL to avoid decapitalization. No more gasoline in the fire, but this time without a virtuous counterpart beyond the advantage of certain manufacturers.

Martín Guzmán’s plan seemed simple, without La Cámpora. Budget accounts adjusted for inflation in the first quarter; it was therefore easier to come to an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF); This confidence shock supported a dollar with less intervention on Central Bank bonds and without paying debts to the Paris Club ($ 2.4 billion) and the Fund ($ 3.8 billion) this year. The dollars were to be used as a lever for consumption, especially between July and November. It couldn’t be. The IMF is a political enemy in times of tapered unity within the Frente de Todos coalition. Like the land. This is the cost of the symbolic field.

“Guzmán looks like López Murphy if you watch the first quarter”, a seasoned economist joked. Ieral put it in numbers. In the first four months of 2020, government spending increased by 12.1% in real terms. During the same period of 2021, it fell by 6%. The primary deficit was 1.4% and 0.2% of GDP during these periods. With the wealth tax, there was even a surplus this year. This austerity, in times of pandemic, added to the “Basualdo affair”, has fueled criticism of Christianity. Guzmán came to thank Máximo Kirchner for a law. Celicia Todesca has pledged to spend more to help people in crisis.

But this hedge is short if the dollars are used to support the exchange rate and with inflation that many are at 45% at the end of the year. Fast and furious, this image is reflected in the front mirrors of pragmatic allies, such as Hugo and Pablo Moyano.