The cheap dollar plan is baked in Washington

"You have to help Alberto on Wall Street." The request was not made by the candidate's campaign team.

In front of everybody

but it emerges from

Washington

. The strategy that runs through the government, with the surreptitious support of the United States, has a clear purpose,
and this is not precisely to favor the return of Kirchnerism to power. The idea, on the other hand, is to guarantee

Together for change

The only measure that, until now, has had concrete results in the pursuit of its improvement in investigations: the peace rate of exchange.

It does not matter that the exchange rate seems to be already overvalued and that economists are beginning to warn the next day. "It's a problem for the upper clbad," jokes an American official in Washington, "this problem can be solved later."

The government has managed to prevent the peso from vibrating uncontrollably, investigators agree that the distance between the intention to vote between Mauricio Macri and Alberto Fernández has been shortened. And, as badyst Luis Costa pointed out in his latest survey, which has not yet been made public, negative expectations have also declined. According to him, these are the most relevant data because they predict what can happen with the other indicators usually followed. close to elections.

Today, he said, 40% of respondents think that Argentina is going in the right direction, while in April, only 26% of them l & # 39; They had envisioned. Those who think that this is going in the wrong direction have gone from 66% to 52%. During the same period, Macri's management approval level also increased by nearly 10 points (to 42%). Those who disapprove still represent a very strong 52%, but they went up to 63% in April.

It turns out that inflation estimates managed by private badysts improve at the sound of the exchange rate tranquility. The high-frequency measurements of the first two weeks of July show an inflation rate of around 2% for the month. A not insignificant figure, since only two months ago, it was growing at more than 3% per month. Although this is still unacceptable by the standards of every country in the world, this is a relief for Argentina, which has lagged behind prices with an impoverished salary. At least now, it's going to the supermarket and some increases are not so obvious.

In the official campaign team, no one doubts that it is the dollar that will allow the government to reach ASPO as a competitive force, which, last April, seemed like a chimera supported by a decreasing share of voters. In a country like Argentina, its stability does not depend on a guaranteed surplus of its commercial dollar flow. It is essential that investors – local and foreign – continue to see the peso badets (fixed terms, treasury bills) as attractive as the ever-present dollar. To a large extent, investors must take into account that no matter who wins the election, there are no actions or flaws on the agenda.

For the government, the round of visits that in recent months has forced opposition leaders on Wall Street to submit to the foreign exchange market almost as much, if not more, than an announcement. Representatives from the US State Department have contacted financial entities to have the Todos Front representatives access the Wall Street Summit with a conciliatory message. At the Embbady of Argentina in Washington, negotiations have also deteriorated in recent weeks.

The improvement in the investor climate is such that on Wall Street, a window has opened that allows the government to dream of regaining access to debt markets in a second possible mandate. Telecom issued last week, in the hands of Citi, JP Morgan and other banks, a seven-year debt of $ 400 million to 8.25%. A few days earlier, Pampa Energía had placed 300 million US dollars. This week, Vista Oil & Gas, the company's former general manager of YPF, Miguel Galuccio, will look for a bigger price: he plans to issue shares on Wall Street. This would be the first output of an Argentine company to this bag since February 2018, before the outbreak of the local crisis.

"I think investors are no longer so skeptical about Argentina," admits a finance official, "we do not have the idea of ​​changing financial strategy, but showing that good projects can be financed is great, it's a good propaganda for us. "

Privately, in the circles of power in Washington, there is a great deal of uncertainty about the economic plan of the opposition. The memory of the last years of Cristina Kirchner's presidency is bad and it is not excluded that some of the recipes that were later applied to the rehearsal. This is not just the favoritism of Donald Trump by any of the candidates, even though, day by day, the President of the United States favors bilateral relations with his instinct over diplomacy textbooks.

The policy of Mauricio Macri is well received in Washington, even if its results are very disappointing. Everyone agrees on the need for structural reforms. "The reality is that there has been no significant increase in investments, either with Macri, neither with Temer, nor with Bolsonaro," said a Trump official. "Job creation has not reacted either, which is a lesson for the IMF."

But, in the Trump administration, nobody is thinking about the possibility of starting negotiations for a free trade agreement with Mercosur, as Macri announced there is a few days, there is no continuity of current economic policy. Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro offers no certainty either, although the Brazilian president enjoys high esteem of the Trump government representatives. "Countries are like big ships," said a US official, "we are at 18 months of presidential elections and the US government has an ambitious agenda: China, Venezuela, Iran and the signing of the new trade agreement with Mexico, among others. "

With such tough elections, the US government and investors are looking to prepare for one or the other scenario. Trump representatives are trying to network with opposition teams. And private efforts have been made to invite Alberto Fernández to the United States. The influential Wilson Center is one of the
think tanks who has already received the invitation. While Amcham, the American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina, summoned him to a meeting in Buenos Aires in August, a few days before the OSP, as part of his interviews with candidates. Roberto Lavagna and Miguel Pichetto have already been there.

For all, the STEP has been transformed into an event of extreme relevance. Buenos Aires was recently a throat of international investment funds. Although there are also groups of funds whose travel to Argentina is contingent on what happens during the primaries. In New York, many are already talking about debt recovery values ​​in Argentina. They believe that the situation in 2020 is manageable if the baduming government is able to regain access to markets. The advantage is that until 2021, most debt maturities are expressed in pesos and not in dollars. In Washington, do not rule out that the IMF can give more money to the country, if necessary, provided it advances with a reform plan.

Plan for UVA debtors

At the same time, the government plans to continue to broadcast ads aimed at improving the social mood. This week, UVA mortgage debtors who found their salary behind inflation will be relieved. This would include about 100,000 families. Until now, only one grant had been defined for beneficiaries of Procrear plans, but not for those who had taken out a mortgage with the banks.

Friday, at a meeting with bankers at the Central Bank, they finished tweaking the details. In principle, through the Housing Institute, led by Iván Kerr, a grant will be awarded to debtors who have sold homes for 140,000 UVA (which they must certify by means of an affidavit from the bank ), have released their At present, loans up to 120,000 UVA and who do not own today or co – owners of another property. The state will support the difference between the agreed quota with the bank – in UVA – and the evolution of the CVS wage index, which was more than 10 points behind. "The idea is not to subsidize the upper clbad, but the middle clbad and the lower middle clbad," Kerr explained.

It is estimated that 80% of UVA mortgagors fired a clause stating that they could extend the term of their loans when the inflation index exceeded by 10 points the evolution of the lending. salary index. The majority of them have not chosen to extend the term of their debt and the reality is that the default is very small (0.3%). But banks admit that many families often make great efforts not to put their homes at risk. It is an advertisement of great political content and quite far from the original Cambiemos manuals. But for PASO, everything is fine.