The climate in the United States offers a new opportunity for Argentine cereals

Three weeks ago, the outlook for grain prices was bleak on the Chicago Stock Exchange, an inexorable reference for other global suppliers of grains and oilseeds. The trade war between

United States

and China; abundant US soybean and corn stocks; the growing supply of South America and the forecast of a major resumption of wheat production in the Northern Hemisphere have been the foundations that have plunged prices into a deep depression that , with nuances, has been reproduced on the domestic market.

But all of a sudden, the climate has burst out forcefully as the exclusive foundation of price formation. The succession of rainy days in grain-producing areas of the United States, which had recently been flooded by the overflow of the Missouri River, has limited the growth of plantations in the Midwest and Great Plains , with maize as the main crop damaged due to the limited planting window.

This new production scenario was combined with a position of speculative investment funds over-sold in all products and both generated an explosive combo for grain prices. Beyond a profit taking on grains, between the close of today's Friday's 10th and yesterday's, the price of corn has jumped 22.3% from 134.84 to $ 164.85 per tonne; that of wheat, 17.1%, from $ 153.96 to $ 180.23 and that of soybean, 9.4%, from $ 292.85 to $ 320.41.

Corn is in the lead because seedlings on 58% of the area are the worst because they record records and contrast with 90% of the same time in 2018 and with the average of 90% of the last four seasons. And while the optimal planting window is closing, even many growers are considering the possibility of sowing late because of the appeal of current values, which are the highest since June 2016.

Wheat continues to play an important role in terms of improvements due to the surge of corn on the forage market and the damage that excess moisture can generate on crops. winter.

Soy is the one that is recording the lowest profits because it still has a deadline for sowing, but mostly because the market does not forget that current stocks are record in the United States. United. and because relations with the world's largest buyer, China, remain limited.

Thus, the tug of war that the American climate provoked on the American market led to a change in the price of Argentine cereals. The value of maize and soybean exports (FOB Argentine ports) rose from 10% today to 14.2% and 12.5%, from $ 155 to $ 177 and $ 304 to $ 342, respectively.

The improvement is also reflected in the physical market, ie what producers receive. The value of available maize has increased from 5900 to 7000 pesos and the value of 2019/2020 grain from 135 to 160 dollars, and soybeans from 9366 to 10 500 pesos and from 224 to 245 dollars. "In recent days, the atmosphere of the sector has changed significantly," said Adrian Seltzer, the broker Granar SA. He explained that soybean price improvement comes at a time when "the producer has to sell to pay the rural cards with which he financed the purchase of inputs." Just as the start of the threshing the last lots, it's a combination that excites. "

The right moment extends to wheat. "Three weeks ago, some producers who were far from the ports had doubts about the area to be allocated to wheat while the harvest was worth about US $ 150. Today, they have cleared doubts and started to sell at $ 180. US dollars to close their planting plan, including fine grain "says Seltzer. Yesterday, in Gran Rosario, some 200,000 tons of new wheat were sold.

22.3%

The increase of maize

Between the 10th of the present and yesterday, the value of corn has risen in Chicago from 134.84 to 164.85 dollars