The consequences for South America of the Venezuelan situation

However, when you try to deepen a little bit the question in question, you must understand that the current US administration does not care about differences or nuances: it is about centralism and programmed for Cuban Marxism; a friend capitalism under a Chavisist or Sandinista logic, or the populist progressivism of Evo Morales. The ideology, planning or diversity in the greed of consumers are irrelevant. The real enemy is any state south of the Rio Grande – which has vast natural resources – that has a strategic alliance with China or Russia. Being "left" is another variable in the global game, a simplistic excuse for selecting the goal.

The attack began. The soft power of media pressure is the one that has been operating since the beginning; simply to undermine the prestige, which is well known to end when the weapons are spoken. The next – and perhaps not the last – link that could be an obstacle to belligerent conflict is, as it did in the last century, to bleed the enemy economically: to hinder bank accounts, to hinder production and the logistics of the hydrocarbon industry and break up the commercial / financial alliances to touch the heart of the Chavez government. In other words, the pocket, which allowed him to maintain the unwavering loyalty of the high command of the Armed Forces and the Bolivarian militias.

There is hardly any other way to generate an internal dismemberment, this breaking point that modifies the endogenous balance of the entire energy system. Beyond the indoctrination and status acquired over the past two decades, the economic and political power of the coercive apparatus (processing of food import and distribution, system Exchange, PDVSA, the Mining Bow) does not allow an easy break of the status. -quo. It is perhaps the middle or lower ranks of the FANB who break the loyalties, because they are the ones who suffer near the common Venezuelan ordeals, in addition to putting the variable of aspiration for climbing into play. professional of another government that & # 39; clean & # 39; to the current order. But this will depend on the fact that they reach a level of mbad sufficient to avoid their own "enforced disappearances" by the intelligence services and counter-insurgency commandos formed by the regime.

So, we are facing a dangerous context that could lead to an unprecedented result for our region. In this sense, since the independence process, there has never been direct internal military interference from the United States to South America. Although the co-opting of civilian and military interests in its "backyard" for much of the second half of the last century left a powerful mark on our region (although its versions differ depending on which one it is). The current situation is different: no Only globalization, technology and modern culture have made everything more alive, on the surface, visualized, discussed – which means that external support should be more marginal and as has been the case with the overthrow of Lugo in Paraguay or Zelaya in Honduras – but also the interests of China and Russia are now clear and concise.

Natural resources, expansion of logistics, geostrategic positioning. Seas and rivers, lithium, mines, oil, Amazon and Antarctica. In addition to providing fighter-bombers, missile systems, small arms, tanks, warships and cyber defense networks. Too interesting for powerful powerful. There is no doubt that the Chinese and Russian tentacles, already well penetrated throughout our region, inevitably force the South American governments to balance as tightrope walkers in front of the cross-interests of the East. and West.

This is why the almost total alignment to the United States through the Lima group seems to be more a mere imposition of the north than the genuine desire to dethrone Maduro. Not even the hundreds of thousands of Venezuelan migrants scattered throughout the region had made only a few meager diplomatic statements. Even less to think of the military interventions, even if they are its most bitter enemies today, like Brazil and Colombia: the soldiers of these countries who enter with weapons on the Venezuelan territory constitute a point of no back in the future relationships. Governments can change, the political dynamic is unpredictable. Even commercial and financial relations can be consolidated. But the links between the citizens, the Commonwealth and the links related to the cultural and the affect, will be imbued with irreparable damage and surely undesirable, nor of an ardent extremist like the Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro .

Although, as we have seen so far, Trump has been more of a dog who barks strategically, but does not bite, you can not rule out a true US decision to resort to the hawkish approach: this road which would open a dangerous door for our South America. In the future, any other government called "populist complexion" by the Washington hawks could be the reason for a military invasion to restore order. The one who, unlike the declaimed, will surely generate an instability that will come from the opposite interests of China and Russia. The two powers will not want to lose their established privileges: to obtain raw materials, to recover their loans, to develop their power and their interference. In short, a conflict of powers, but at home. Syria, Ukraine or Nigeria give clear examples.

But there is something else. On the one hand, the institutional, political, humanitarian and economic disaster that would provoke a foreign intervention of the United States, where they have almost never solved anything by direct military interference. Recall that the highly effective Marshall Plan, which was a resounding success, was financed with considerable funding, while maintaining the socio-institutional power in position of enemy defeated, as was the case for example of the emperor from Japan. The rest was failure after failure.

But above all, there is the future. The strategic resources of our children and grandchildren. It would not only be control via its "Big Brothers" at the virtual level, where the powers already have control of our information via satellites, communications, Internet. Now it would also be the direct domain of the most valuable badets, the real economy, life itself. In this sense, the food, fresh water, fisheries resources or biodiversity of Maracaibo in Antarctica, with the corresponding training of human capital and necessary infrastructure, will not be used to improve the quality of life of South American children. but rather foreign goals. Because, as I mentioned earlier, when the stranger decides, history has shown that the interior hardly interested.

(*) Economist and Doctor in International Relations. Author of the book "The Anesthetized Society." The World Economic System from the Citizens' Point of View.