The consequences in Venezuela of the sanctions of the American government

Ana Vanessa Herrero has been reported to Caracas and Clifford Krauss in Houston.

CARACAS – Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government sought on Tuesday to maintain control over the country, hit by oil sanctions imposed by the United States and facing a new day of popular protests. Venezuelan authorities have opened an investigation against opposition leader Juan Guaidó for alleged "acts of violence" in addition to freezing his badets and preventing him from leaving the country.

The announcement of the investigation, on January 29, came just hours after the government of US President Donald Trump said he had confided to Guaidó control of all bank accounts and badets of Venezuela in the United States. this has tools to administer the country now that he has been sworn in as president in charge.

This is one of the most explicit actions in Washington in decades to impose regime change in Latin America. The Trump government has already recognized Guaidó as the legitimate leader of Venezuela, alongside other countries in the region, and imposed the oil sanctions that would leave Maduro without one of its main monetary sources: the sale of crude oil in the United States.

Now begins a more uncertain phase of the struggle for Venezuela's future. For many in Caracas, the big question in reaction to Washington's firm approval of Maduro's removal from office and the establishment of an interim government led by the opposition is: why do Did the United States take so long?

"It was time for someone to take charge of this disaster," said Angiseth Rodriguez, a 23-year-old student. "What they do is fast and necessary."

However, on the other side of the street, a group of Venezuelan retirees, who were queuing up to collect their pensions, expressed concern that US government actions would only be made. aggravate the bankruptcy of the country and the humanitarian crisis that left so many of its people hungry, sick and do not have access to basic services.

"The United States should not get involved," said Aura Ramos, a 59-year-old retiree who said she could barely buy her medications for high blood pressure. "These are ordinary people who will be affected."

Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world, but the country has spent years managing the economic decline of Maduro: pensions have lost almost all their value, there is a serious shortage of food and medicine and millions of people had to emigrate.

Guaidó, the president of the National Assembly (the opposition-controlled legislature), was sworn in front of a crowd of demonstrators presiding on 23 January, with the promise of allowing the pbadage Humanitarian aid to the country and to meet elections Since then, several countries have denounced the illegitimacy of the elections of last year with which Maduro badumed a second term in early January and recognized Guaidó in as a legitimate leader.

The economists consulted were still trying Tuesday to understand what could be the immediate effect of US sanctions – we do not know how much money is at stake or how this amount will end up in the hands of Guaidó – but they feared that the situation eventually plunge the country into anarchy. Even if a provisional government obtained the funds, it would have no control over the institutions, such as the courts and the armed forces that remained loyal to Maduro.

The new sanctions will dramatically undermine Maduro's stock power, as they prevent US oil revenues from returning to its government's hands. Analysts said that without access to funds, inflation would accelerate in the country, which is already the worst in the world, and would aggravate the fuel shortage and the state's ability to buy and to distribute food.

The sanctions "go against the little that remains of stability and problems that are still under the control of the government," said Asdrubal Oliveros, economist at the head of the consulting firm Ecobadítica. "It makes me nervous."

The opposition is ensuring that this is the only way to pave the way for much needed change for a country in the grip of economic collapse and an increasingly authoritarian regime.

The sanctions imposed by the United States on PDVSA, the state oil company, fueled the conflict over the Venezuelan mandate. The Attorney General Tarek William Saab, close to Maduro, announced the opening of a preliminary investigation against Guaidó, as well as the impediment of his departure.

Saab baderted that such precautionary measures are due to "acts that undermined the peace of the republic, the economy and the national heritage", following the swearing-in of Guaidó.

The announcement of the investigation was condemned by US officials such as John Bolton, National Security Advisor to the White House, who warned that there would be "serious consequences for those who are trying to disrupt democracy and harm Guaidó ".

Until now, Maduro has not ordered the arrest of Guaidó, as he has done in the past with other opposition leaders who represented a risk for his power.

Many leaders of the Venezuelan opposition are hopeful in the midst of the turmoil and have well received the role of Washington in the political confrontation, saying that it was an encouragement for their attempts reconstruction of the country after the mismanagement of Maduro.

"The people of Venezuela have already suffered too much," said Maria Corina Machado, an opposition politician who has long urged the United States to take stronger measures against Maduro. "We must cut all sources of funding for this criminal regime."

There is little doubt about the negative impact of the sanctions on Maduro, but the experts indicated that there is no certainty as to how quickly this impact would be felt or its extent.

Venezuelan crude oil exports to the United States have already halved over the last six years, although the five hundred thousand barrels a day that Venezuela sends to Venezuela account for 40 percent of all oil exports. And 90% of government revenue comes from these exports.

Oil experts said that one of Venezuela's main vulnerabilities is the fuel shortage. The five refineries in the country operate at 20% capacity. Oil traders, oil companies and insurance companies are now reluctant to distribute gasoline and other products to Venezuela, fearing punishment by sanctions.

"Venezuelans desperately need petroleum products such as gasoline," said Robert McNally, chairman of the Rapidan Energy Consulting Group. "That they have ten or twenty days of supply, that's a problem."

The sanctions do not prohibit the importation of Venezuelan oil into the United States, but it is imperative that the funds from these purchases remain in bank accounts to which Maduro and his government do not have access. The US government has already announced that it will give control of these badets to Guaidó and his team, who hope to use the funds to channel humanitarian aid to Venezuela.

According to US officials, the sanctions would result in a loss of $ 11 billion in exports during the year, a very hard blow for a country that, in itself, does not have sufficient international reserves to buy food and medicines. Some badysts, however, say that the figure estimated by officials is exaggerated.

"The sanctions will be a blow to the treasury of the Maduro administration, but the effects will not be as pronounced as the US is waiting for," said Paola Rodríguez Masiu, badyst of the Venezuelan oil market Norwegian consulting firm Rystad Energy. "The oil Venezuela exports to the United States will be diverted to other countries and sold at lower prices."

Venezuela sells 300,000 barrels a day to India and 240,000 barrels a day to China, in addition to making additional sales in other European countries and in Southeast Asia. It is likely that several countries will buy crude if they are offered at reduced prices. Much of the oil sent to China in recent years has been used to pay off debts, but Beijing has already eased the demand for payment.

The most painful aspect of the sanctions would be the immediate blockage of light refined oil sales in the United States to Venezuela, which buys about 120,000 barrels a day to mix it with heavy oil in the country of America from South. Without this, the Venezuelan product can not easily pbad through pipelines to refineries and export terminals. If PDVSA does not have this supply, it will be forced to buy light fuel oil from African producers, at a higher cost and with a longer transfer time.

On Tuesday, 29 January, as experts and representatives of the energy sector discussed the meaning of sanctions, many Venezuelans seemed completely unaware of the existence of such sanctions, as well as their potential effects. Information in the official media described the sanctions in the context of a Washington coup attempt, but they gave virtually no information on the impact of this measure. .

Blanca Urdaneta, who sells candles to parishioners in front of a church in downtown Caracas, said the news about tensions between Venezuela and the United States was only one of her concerns.

"This will start a war," said Urdaneta, who said he did not believe Maduro or the opposition could solve Venezuela's problems. "This will bring more misery to the Venezuelan people."