The contradictions of a government that believes winning, even if it is at a complex crossroads

There is a tumult and a bit of melancholy at Casa Rosada. Its inhabitants do not know how to explain it. On the one hand, they blame politics and not the economy for the problems, whereas in fact, these are the two factors that have been reinforced to lock the wheels.

They remain convinced that they will win the next elections, despite the misapplication of public policies and beyond the fact that a significant portion of the population is mired in distress. They say that it was not the torrent of optimism displayed that betrayed them, nor the arrogance that some wanted to see, but that the force of will they expressed to the government was erased by events that could not not be measured in advance (international crisis, for example). But these strong winds also touched other Latin American countries, but did not cause as much damage as in Argentina. That is to say that the Argentine government has failed, not the Chilean, nor the Brazilian, nor the Uruguayan.

The moment is a complex crossroads. On one side, there is a government that has lost its popularity due to the tightening of the recession, inflation through the clouds and the drowning of men. business, who do not know how to get a white flag. In his years in power, Cambiemos respected the democratic institutions, tried to approach the voter, did work that did not do those who had preceded him in power, never complained to the press or journalists and had generated good contacts at the international level despite the ongoing mistrust that now prevailed towards the considerable investors

On the other side is Kirchner's desire to return to Balcarce 50 and take revenge. They are not among the K respectable sectors of a fragmented Peronism; it's more an archipelago than a firm island. Until the end of 2015, they demonstrated what they are capable of doing: a berreta populism and a childish leftism that questions the "owners of the world". For them, the most powerful countries are always willing to hurt Argentines. The perfect populism: "a people struggling with a leader who represents him, who is his voice", crushing anything that tries to demolish the project.

The book signed Cristina Fernández ("Sincerely") omits all the faults of the past, boasts of popular fervor, ignores the enormous judicial accusations of corruption and abounds even in certain sincerities that submerge: no handed Mauricio Macri to the presidential team in December 2015 "so that it does not look like a capitulation". He does not talk about his badets. He continues to badert that his marriage already had riches before the exercise of the larger mandate.

They confused the demands of the campaign with the "mujiks" owners, fought by the Kremlin forces in the 1920s. They took the country into a situation of fault, the paralysis of public services, attacked the media, badaulted the coffers of the state without shame. The "notebooks" were not necessary. Just make a list of the properties they own or claim to possess and the benefits they receive to know that they are not "successful entrepreneurs", but speculators and generous friends with their friends.

The great confusion comes from the fact that a third option has emerged, with the exception of governors grouped in the Federal Alternative, of independent leaders such as Sergio Mbada or cowardly leaders who are not or do not intend to be part of the electoral race.

Only if Juan Schiaretti wins the lessons in Cordoba, a decisive province for its economy and its electoral volume, Roberto Lavagna would engage on the path of the struggle for the presidency. Schiaretti and Lavagna are allies and, although they are not so much as the journalistic chronicles emphasize, they want the same thing when thinking of the future.

What is behind Lavagna? Does he represent Mbada or cut himself off? Lavagna does not lack a prestigious aura because he was able to continue the work of his predecessors, Jorge Remes Lenicov and Jorge Todesca, which has weathered the perfect storm of the beginning of 2002. And it has achieved good results based on the savings achieved by small and medium-sized enterprises and the improvement of international prices of products exported by the country, until Kirchner is out of jealousy or denounces corruption in the country. public work ended up throwing it away. Now that we have had a nice harvest, the dollars do not get into the pace that Balcarce wants to reach because there is speculation on better prices and we are expecting at a convenient time.

Lavagna has a virtue: he is not known for his political prejudices and engages in negotiations with radical opponents of Cambiemos and with the Socialists. He has a supposed flaw: he has been living for 77 years and is attacked by those who believe that adulthood precludes the presidential exercise, while there was in recent history and the ancient cases of the same age that have led the destinies of the world.

If Lavagna starts the race, he will receive significant civilian support (among them those who were expelled from the vote appropriately attributed to Macri) and unions.

To know where we are, it is necessary to inject patience because the wait is long. In the meantime, we will see how the dollar will react, taking into account the Fund's willingness to act without regard to trade bands. This fact can further increase uncertainty.

This national binary economy where the dollar is the safe haven is directly related to governance. This is no longer the "brick" the good to get at any price, thought and action of our grandparents. The dollar has been around for decades because the peso is understated and subject to the vagaries of uncertainty. The binary economy is not Macri's responsibility, she's been lagging behind for 70 years.

As some experts say, Argentina is currently suffering from an IMF stabilization plan that does not take into account the historical volatility of the exchange rate that strikes the country in an election year.. This has had an impact in all areas, plunging the country into more than just financial problems.

Industrialists know it well. The Macri government did not take into account the manufacturing problems and did not know how to badociate them with the elementary to avoid an additional recession: employment, consumption. The industry has dropped 50% over the previous year. There was no help in the emergency, nor any emergency plans. On the contrary, the authorities introduced a kind of taxation that prevented any movement towards a small or large company. With an aggravating factor for the future: the national external debt is 156,000 million dollars. The government has not imposed a limit to their daily needs and has plunged the country into a very difficult situation to overcome for the one that will continue at Casa Rosada, whatever its sign.