The dialogue in Venezuela is broken by the blockade of …

From Caracas

The Venezuelan government announced Wednesday night that it would not attend the new round of dialogues in Barbados scheduled for Thursday and Friday. The decision was made by President Nicolás Maduro, who chose "not to send the Venezuelan delegation because of the serious and brutal aggression perpetrated (…) by the Trump administration against Venezuela, which includes the illegal blockade of our economic and financial activities. "

The resolution was taken with the flexibility of the United States closed after the Presidential decree signed by Trump and accompanied by statements by John Bolton, National Security Advisor, who attacked the dialogue processes. The Trump administration has made it clear: it is not time to speak or to open economic routes, it is time to seek the final badault.

Given this, the government option has been reduced. One of the claims, perhaps the main one, to reach an agreement is that the United States lift the blockade. Washington's response has been the antithesis: intensify to place Venezuela on the list of rare countries in total freeze, such as Syria, Cuba, Iran and North Korea .

Europe and the United States at the wrong time

The turning left the door open to higher uncertainties and voltage positions. Indeed, The reaction of the European Union (EU) has been to warn about the unilateral decision of the United States and emphasize its commitment to dialogue. The International Contact Group (ICG), formed and led by the EU, with the participation of governments such as Uruguay, wrote: "A negotiated exit remains the only conceivable way to overcome this multidimensional crisis" .

Fears about the implications of the embargo are due to a central point: the presidential decree threatens businesses and governments doing business with Venezuela. The American speech is clear, the government must sink and, with it, the economy and the population if necessary to achieve the goal.

The misfortune between the United States and the EU is not just about Venezuela. Another important case is that of Iran, where the Trump administration decided to let the nuclear deal. Europe remained in a gray zone, with no real response to the Iranian government's request to step in to end the economic blockade and the guillotine of sanctions against its companies, many of which withdrew from the country. The result is in view: a blockade and a warlike escalation.

In the case of Venezuela, it is in the US geopolitical vital zone: Is the EU prepared to tighten its positions to compel the United States not to quarantine the country? Is this part of your plans in your asymmetrical relationship with the United States? These are questions that are on the table in every block of strength.

Scenarios after the rupture of the dialogue

The decision of the Maduro government was then to express what had already happened: the breakdown of the dialogues. The United States has produced it, Venezuela has expressed it. As for the Venezuelan opposition in Barbados, the question has always been to know what real strength, what supply capacity do they have in a possible agreement? The answer has always been that this force was American and that its main letter was to unblock part of the economic and financial attack. To redouble was to break.

The scenarios change. However, two American letters seem clear: they are not going to give up their decision to overthrow Maduroand, within the Trump administration, as well as in the intrigues of the deep American state, trends that seek to accelerate operations rather than rely on the so-called "strategic patience" have the ability d & # 39; act.

To this must be added the variable of US internal election times and the way Trump seeks to capitalize a portion of the electorate with these measures.

There were no consolidated badumptions about possible agreements in Barbados. Part of this was due to the Norwegian government's call to maintain caution and great discretion. US spokesmen, such as John Bolton – a part of the sector that seeks to speed up maneuvers and set the country on fire, "said a presidential election is expected to take place without a Maduro government. Never expressed a possible dialogue but a threat.

The breakup of Barbados pushed by the United States means the resurgence of other forms of attacks. Trump has already announced that he is preparing "other tools", Iván Duque's government in Colombia has again predicted a quick exit from Maduro and, down in the country's metro, threats of mercenary violence beaten. As several badyzes have pointed out, embargos do not cause government falls, but when they do, it's because they are combined with other forms of badault .

The government has stated that "it is ready to review the mechanisms of this process (dialogue) so that its pursuit is really effective". The dialogues are open doors to the most uncertain scenarios. Is a negotiation with a total blockade a negotiation? Chavismo will mobilize this Saturday to express his disagreement, his willingness to fight.