The discreet role that the United States should play in Venezuela

MEXICO – Faced with the worsening of the Venezuelan crisis, almost all the countries that support Juan Guaidó as president in charge of Venezuela agree that the resignation of Nicolás Maduro is the first step of any type of negotiation. This is a difference from previous diplomatic attempts to establish a dialogue between the Maduro government and the opposition. The call for dialogue launched this week in Uruguay at the request of the European Union opens a new possibility of peaceful resolution.

This means that Guaidó and the National Assembly would hold presidential elections as soon as possible., with the presence of international observers, new electoral authorities and overseen by a neutral government.

Among the countries of Latin America and Europe, there is a consensus on the Discreet paper that the government of US President Donald Trump should play in Venezuelaalthough he has already played a key role in orchestrating much of what has happened in recent weeks. Many Latin Americans and Europeans feel that, regardless of the discretion of US participation, their motives are debatable. They argue that if Trump is involved, no one else should be. Skepticism is understandable if one takes into account the history of US intervention in Latin America, from their representations in Guatemala in the 1950s to their participation in Honduras at the beginning of the century.

If Maduro leaves power, it will be because thousands of Venezuelans took to the streets despite the risk of being killed. to the soldiers who refused to shoot at them, to the governments of Latin America who have been demanding for a year and a half the countries of the European Union who also want Maduro not to remain in the presidency. The United States is a factor, but not a decisive factor.

Some surveys in Venezuela indicate that the majority of the population would accept US military intervention to overthrow Maduro and end her nightmare. But there are too many cases in which the US government has ingested the Latin American countries under the worst of the worst reasons and consequences, so that it's not easy to get the job done. there is some enthusiasm about the possibility of US interference.

Maduro supporters en Russia, Cuba, Bolivia and North Korea, even in China, with a little security will denounce a "Yankee intervention", drawing a parallel with the invasion of Playa Girón in Cuba and appealing to the patriotism of the Venezuelan armed forces.

Until now, The United States and the Trump government played their cards surprisingly well, with a deployment of methodical and well thought out initiatives. With the exception of some unnecessary threats from the White House, The US government has been quiet, at least for now. Hope this caution will continue.

The United States will not attend the conference on Venezuela convened Thursday by the European Union in Montevideo. And it's a success. Nor should he give direct humanitarian aid to Venezuela. The United States has to provide badistance and intervene in providing badistance to Venezuela. Washington should simply encourage, organize and fund.

The sanctions that the Trump government has applied to the Venezuelan national oil company PDVSA are sufficient. According to Guaidó and other sources, $ 20 million worth of drugs and food from the United States will be received this week outside Venezuelan territory: in Cúcuta (Colombia), Roraima (Brazil) and on a Caribbean island near the Venezuelan coast, either Aruba or Curacao.

Officers and members of the exiled army troops would deliver these supplies to Venezuela, where, if all goes well, troops still loyal to Maduro will not stop their trip or shoot at them. If they do, the governments of Brazil and Colombia may be willing to support anti-Maduro soldiers. The threat of a confrontation with its neighbors could be the necessary incentive for the Venezuelan army to abandon Maduro, which would make the fight useless.

Washington should primarily guarantee the measures to achieve the necessary and desirable result. It must also play a crucial role in amnesty Guaidó offered to Maduro and senior Venezuelan army officials in exchange for his renunciation of power and his departure from the country.

Even in seemingly safe places like Havana and Moscow, Maduro and those who avail themselves of the amnesty will remain vulnerable to one day the International Court of Justice or American judicial system to chase them. For that The United States must promise that they will not do it; Without this guarantee, the chances of accepting exile are slim.

For the first time since Hugo Chávez took office twenty years ago, the Venezuelan opposition is united. Almost all the countries involved in Venezuela, directly or indirectly, with the exception of Iran, Nicaragua, Syria, Bolivia, Russia and China, and to a lesser extent the Mexico and Uruguay, subscribe to most of the points described above. But his support for Guaidó is conditional on the unity of the internal forces that support him. This block is the one that initiated the end of Chavez as we know it.

Venezuela has two routes: or leave this nightmare behind and joins its democratic neighbors in Latin America and the Western Hemisphere where he becomes a protectorate and ally done and right from Russia, Cuba and in a lesser extent, China. This is the real choice facing Venezuela and its true friends.

It will be a great success that the United States can work with Latin Americans and Europeans to solve a crisis in the region without intimidating nadie. Some would even prefer that the United States remain completely spared from the crisis. But none of these scenarios will happen.

In any case, the Venezuelan people must have the opportunity to choose through free and fair elections. In the end, it is what it is about.

Jorge G. Castañeda is a professor at the University of New York, a board member of Human Rights Watch and an opinion columnist for the New York Times. He was Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico from 2000 to 2003.

Copyright: 2019 New York Times News Service