The distribution of humanitarian aid tests the stability of Nicolás Maduro and the leaders of Juan Guaidó

From Cúcuta. Nicolás Maduro defends his only political support: the generals who manage the troops and the companies in Venezuela. Juan Guaidó advances on military leadership and promises an amnesty. Until now, Maduro successfully protects his tactical advantage, while Guaidó relies on the international community and popular mobilization to impose a democratic transition that shifts the populist regime.

On February 23, for the first time in this historical context, Maduro and Guaidó will measure their forces face to face on the border that separates Venezuela from Colombia.

If Guaidó can open military checkpoints and bring humanitarian aid to Venezuelan territory, Maduro will have suffered a political defeat. On the other hand, if the populist leader blocks aid without death or injury, Guaidó will have to review his plans and devise another strategy to end a regime that has already buried democracy in Venezuela.

Military leaders still support Maduro because he does not trust Guaidó's offers. The interim president has proposed an amnesty for the generals who betray Maduro and protect a democratic transition guaranteeing free and transparent elections. But the generals who run the regime's darkest affairs remember the promises made to Manuel Noriega (Panama) and one Muhammad Khadafy (Libya), two corrupt dictators who dropped their guard and fell without pain or glory.

There are no more loyalty links between the Generals and Maduro. And it is likely that the generals will abandon the populist leader if they understand that the time has come to change trenches. HoweverTreason will only be used when they have political guarantees. And for the moment, Guaidó does not have enough power to reach an agreement that the democratic transition itself can be reversed in a few days.

Faced with the impossibility of guaranteeing an amnesty, the leader of the opposition remains with the people. Guaidó badumed this possibility and therefore called for a popular mobilization that must surround the barracks to ask the army to allow the entrance of humanitarian aid to Venezuela.. It's a strong bet, which has a story in favor happened forty-five years ago.

On April 25, 1974, thousands of Portuguese had to face the remnants of the dictatorship of Antonio Salazar to demand the democratic transition. We called him the Revolution of Clavelesand it was a peaceful event that was astonishing of its political effectiveness. The dictatorship fell and a democratic process was opened which, in the middle of the cold war, surprised Washington and Moscow.

Guaidó thought of this Portuguese pueblada by calling the popular mobilizations that will go to the barracks on February 23rd. And finally, the interim president leaves everything in the hands of the generals: the opening of the border with Colombia so that humanitarian aid can enter, or the repression of Venezuelans who will advance on military units.

The offer between Maduro and Guaidó has its own scenarios. The populist leader has called a two-day concert on Simón Bolívar bridge, which he will also use to distribute "humanitarian aid" given by Cuba. This bridge unites Venezuela and Colombia and Maduro organized the manufacture and distribution of Cuban boxes on Venezuelan territory. "Nothing for the war" and "hands out of Venezuela" These are the slogans of the scheme to broadcast a recital that has not yet confirmed its alignment.

A few kilometers from the Simón Bolívar bridge is the Tienditas Bridge, an international pbad that has not yet been opened and also links Venezuela and Colombia. On the Tienditas bridge, there will be a recital organized by British businessman Richard Branson -Fondateur du groupe Virgin- who is badured of the presence of Ricardo Montaner, Diego Torres, Jose Luis "El Puma" Rodriguez, Alejandro Sanz and Maluma, among other Latin artists. Its slogan is "Venezuela Aid Live" and its political goal is to draw public attention to an event likely to break the stability of the Maduro-led regime.

"Venezuela Aid Live" It will begin on the morning of February 22 and one day later, Guaidó should be in the middle of the Tienditas bridge to force the Maduro military to admit humanitarian aid.

If the agenda does not change, thousands of Venezuelans will move from Tienditas to the center of the bridge, where the border with Venezuela is. Conversely, thousands of Venezuelans led by Guaidó will wait on the other side of the same bridge to receive humanitarian aid provided by Donald Trump via USAID.

At this point, the story will wink at Maduro or Guaidó. If the Venezuelan army opens the border, a process that can end the populist regime begins. On the other hand, if Maduro's generals remain firm and do not let humanitarian aid pbad, Guaidó will have to face his own destiny: to force circumstances or to give himself another chance. Still not resolved He hopes to be on the Tienditas Bridge, in front of the Bolivarian Army, before making a decision that can change the history of Venezuela.