The dollar after STEP: operators expect a sharp rise and turn to the central bank

Nearly 12 hours before the start of currency trading, some online banks had already taken note of the huge defeat suffered by the ruling party within the OSP and had pointed to the selling price of dollars. up to 3 pesos. Operators and badysts are waiting for this Monday the impact on the financial market will be significant and expect strong pressure on the US currency and declines in stocks and bonds.

Increases applied by bureaux de change selling dollars at any time will serve as a "floor" for opening transactions from 10. The rest of the banking system will take into account new prices of Mauricio Macri after the defeat. The values ​​will be closer to the ceiling of the reference area, set at $ 51.44.

The final results of the primary elections stifled the euphoria that had gripped the financial market barely 48 hours before the elections, when Merval had gained 5% and the Argentine shares on Wall Street 8%. With some last-minute polls in hand, investors "bought" a much more consistent electoral scenario between Macri and Fernández, which ultimately did not happen.

But the magnitude of the victory of Frente de Todos, which would only reiterate the percentage obtained at the OSPP to accede to the presidency without it being necessary to proceed to a vote, has significantly altered market expectations for the coming months. Even, they already risk that investors need to know first-hand Fernández economic plan to be certain about what lies ahead.

As explained by financial badyst Juan Manuel Carnevale during a dialogue with TN.com.arAs early as 6 am, Argentine badets will already be affected when European markets begin to operate. Between 8am and 9am the market says at the counter (after business hours) and open regional currencies such as Brazil and Mexico. Later, at 10 o'clock, the foreign exchange market will begin in Buenos Aires, half an hour later, on Wall Street and finally, at 11 o'clock, bonds and shares.

According to various badysts consulted by this means, who asked not to be named, the most noticeable impact will be that of the first hours of operation. "The effects always look like more intensely in the first hourSo, this tends to accommodate, "they explain.In this sense, they believe that the main effect is found in the exchange rate and more lightly in stocks and bonds.

The cheapest advice from the foreign exchange market – stock exchanges – will open with a value of $ 48.80 (Bull Market Brokers) and Balanz Capital ($ 48.50). Other more traditional entities could accept and even exceed this value in the first stage of transactions.

EcoGo chief Federico Furiase said on Sunday that the impact on the market would be marked by "falling stocks and bonds, pressure on the dollar, the central bank selling futures, increasing the rate of Leliq and possibly sell bookings if there is an unstable exchange rate rise ".

The entity headed by Guido Sandleris has, in this context, a menu of options to deal with the expected exchange pressure. As Furiase said, the first solution is to try to sell future contracts to third parties. alleviate expectations of devaluation next few months. Although, if there is an even bigger leap given the election outcome, you may also have booking sale money to meet the demand.

If this were the case, this is the first time that the BCRA has to auction off its reserves to contain the dollar since the International Monetary Fund allows it to intervene in this way, at the end of April, in cases where the currency at "disruptive" movements. This Monday could be the first time you go to this tool.

The Ministry of Finance will also be the subject of a first financial review in the future. The government will begin call for offers of treasury bills in dollars, which will expire on November 29 and March 13. The interest rate charged by investors for these debt securities will be one of the keys to understanding market expectations in the near future. As a reference, the last investment had (similar terms) a return of 4.15% and 7.37% per annum in dollars.

Investors, on the other hand, will demand that Alberto Fernández's economic team begin to give his first clues to the economic policy orientations that their government could have, as a condition for less market instability. The relationship they seek to maintain with the IMF will also be a decisive factor.

"With these results, Alberto Fernández is clearly urged to give the market the certainty of avoiding the loss of reserves in the BCRA: the great conditioning of the next governmentif the transition to October happened with financial instability, "Furiase said.

An experienced stock trader summed up the situation early in the morning: "The opposition for the moment brings peace of mind.It will be important that, preferably, the economic referents of the Todos Front take a step forward and count what is the economic plan To bring peace of mind At the moment in Brazil, when Lula won, he went out to introduce his Minister of Economy and explain his plans. And the market has calmed down. "

At the headquarters of his campaign, admitting his defeat, Macri himself responded to a possible negative financial reaction on Monday. He included Fernández: "It's the responsibility of all leaders, even those who have got more votes today than us, to explain what we want for the future of the country. the world that Argentina is a country on which you can bet. "