The dollar has taken a breather, but the undisturbed rate continues to rise

The note fell 0.8%, but the cost of Leliq reached 63.4%

Favored by a quieter scenario on world markets, the
dollar quoted yesterday downstairs although the
central bank (BCRA) – to try to ensure this trend – has revalidated a 45 basis point increase in the benchmark rate, leaving 63.30% per year, its maximum level in 45 days.

These latest data once again reveal the delicate balance in the local market, as a large number of central banks around the world have embarked in recent weeks in a dispute to reduce rates.

On the other hand, the peso (which remains one of the most devalued currencies in the world – a table it was in the lead in 2018 – yielding close to 20% the year) shows once again that it does not manage to equilibrium against the dollar with anabolic drugs (rate allocation or official interventions on futures contracts), because the uncertainty that adds to the economy of the current electoral process is also a factor of control.

The note closed at $ 46.47 and $ 45.29 for retail and wholesale sales, respectively, representing a decline of 33 and 20 cents (0.8% on average) in each sector. activity in a small volume wheel: only in US $ 633 million in cash transactions (-12% the previous day) and the equivalent of $ 925 million in futures contracts (-38%), an amount that was partly reduced because the BCRA took advantage of the downward trend in the bill to stay out of this spot, after the intense activity posted in recent weeks.

"The improvement in the international scene has been reflected in the domestic market, which has been on a downward trend since the beginning of the wheel, allowing wholesale to move to the lowest level of the week. , even in a wheel with a negotiated lower volume "said Gustavo Quintana, PR Exchange Brokers operator.

The tariff, without margin of calm

The international benchmark mentioned by operators is linked to a further stabilization of the yuan (favored by data showing a 3.3% increase in China's exports in July), which helped reduce the downward pressure on investors . emerging currencies, in general, in the last days

"The dollar remained offered to the entire wheel, closing almost to the lows of a day during which it operated between $ 45.19 and $ 45.50 wholesale," said Sebastian Cisa, head of the operating table of the SBS group.

The world's greatest monetary calm, however, has not allowed the internal benchmark interest rate to suspend its bullish career.

Indeed, the BCRA is not only seeking to withdraw the dollar in this way, but must also withdraw pesos from the market in order not to stay out of its monetary base objective (BM), which ends with an overflow (auto -permitted) by 3, 8% in July and remains overwhelmed until now this month.

For both reasons, the leading entity Guido Sandleris took care yesterday not to release more pesos, after four wheels of monetary expansion, placing new liquidity warrants (Leliq) to 7 days to $ 248.1 billion at the end of the $ 244.3 billion. As a result, it has managed to draw some $ 872 million from circulation (the rest of the difference is due to interest payments to banks, which exceeded $ 2,800 million).

This effort forced him to raise the average rate from 62.93 to 63.38% per annum, after having paid average yields of 63.233% and 63.585% respectively in the morning and afternoon auctions, and constitutes the fourteenth consecutive retouch. at a rate that is moving away more and more from the 58% "floor" set by the BCRA until the middle of the week, when the market was moving in the opposite direction.

The steady rise in interest rates, however, yields few results in terms of foreign exchange and monetary targets.

After all, despite yesterday's respite, the dollar rose 3% during the month (9% from its July 12th low), while the 467 basis point paid by the Since July 17, Leliq has failed to reorganize the BM, which is exceeded by about 60 000 million at this time of the month.