The dollar made another leap forward and closed at nearly $ 40, as early as the groups – 26/11/2018

Yesterday, the dollar resumed the momentum it had charged last week and rose by 1.45 USD to close $ 39.97, according to the average of the Central Bank. In one day, he gave a jump of 3.63%. In some banks, the retail currency has exceeded $ 40, but has closed at $ 39.90 in the country. Thus, the North American currency has returned touching the price it had reached the first week of October, when the direction of Guido Sandleris at the Central Bank was created and that the flotation system has been launched.

October 1, the dollar has reached $ 40.73, the highest value to date when managing Sandleris. After slight losses in the following days, on October 4, he closed at 39.44. And from there, he started to slide to 37 dollars.

Yesterday in the middle of the morning, the dollar had lost 7 cents versus Friday's close, while it had risen by more than a peso to close at $ 38.50. But over the hours the trend is reversed and showed that the G20 start-up week will be marked by turbulent trade.

This rise in the dollar puts an end to the stability that the currency had demonstrated in recent weeks. The advance of the dollar is pushed by the uncertainty it's been hitting the market in recent days. More precisely, the new jump that gave the country a risk, that is to say that after the trough reached in November when it seemed to settle in the 600 points zone, has gone back to 700 points.

This rebound is explained by what is happening with Argentine bonds that continue to generate high rates of return, which implies that the doors of international financing remain closed for the country. In addition, the last Lebac call for tenders last Tuesday, in which the plant did not renew 120,000 million dollars, toppled the pesos in the market that now pushes the dollar.

With this rebound, the wholesale exchange rate was $ 39.05, almost 4% above the flotation floor. On the last five wheels, the dollar has accumulated an increase of 7.2%. Yesterday, there were cash transactions for an amount of 723 million US dollars, well above the average of last week, about 500 million US dollars a day. An amount of USD 219 million has been traded on the MAE futures market.

The Argentine peso has evolved in the same direction as other currencies in the region. In Brazil, the dollar appreciated by 2.48% against the real, while the Mexican peso fell by 1.15%. "The Brazil Effect" was the reason why they chose at the Treasury Palace to explain the dollar's rise for a fifth consecutive day.

"Brazil is dragging usbut we are calm because it was already clear that the politics of the exchange groups worked ", they declared before the minister Nicolas Dujovne.

On 1 October, the Central Bank set up a flotation band system and committed itself to do not intervene as long as the currency has moved within these limits. Today, these bands range from $ 35.89 to $ 46.45.

For PR Cambios' operator Gustavo Quintana, the dollar's rise over the past few days is due to "the strength of demand and the inadequacy of supply."

For economist Martin Alfie, a consultant at Radar, "the amplitude between the ground and the ceiling of the band is that, in case there is a" change of mood ", Volatility is high. There is a difference of 30% when the BCRA can not buy or sell. "

Matías Roig, director of Portfolio Personal Inversiones, points out that the rise in the currency results "from the excess liquidity from the Lebac maturity, which is consistent with the end-of-month offsets, as well as the sustained decline in the interest rate on the central bank's liquidity bills (Leliq) ".

The eyes of the market are placed on the decision that the Central Bank will take with regard to rates. Yesterday the monetary authority the rate of Leliq fell again, the instrument that replaced the almost extinct Lebac, 61.23% against 61.40% Thursday, with an investment of $ 134.579 million.

Yesterday, international reserves ended in $ 51,591 million, 145 million less than Friday.