The double dilemma of Mauricio Macri

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Then, his main concepts:

• The country is in an unprecedented situation because of its complexity for a number of reasons. The first relates to an electoral scenario that no one had planned, in which a candidate would have been consecrated without being officially elected and a government defeated, but the latter will remain a competitor until October.
• Mauricio Macri has a dilemma –although it's not the only one – it's a contradiction between the candidate's condition and the president's condition. The latter, from the political point of view, obliges him to make a transition, which implies to take agreed measures with who could be his successor.
• There is also another reason why the situation is complex. The government and very important sectors of the ruling party were very surprised by the strength of the government
  main result. And what there is a conceptual political crack within
  change: there is a sector, where radical leaders, economists and officials around Vidal meet, who think that it is impossible to reverse the result; while there is another group, headed by Macri himself and whose spokesperson was, in a defective way,
  Elisa Carrio, who still believes that the battle is open and that there will be a reversal of the result.
• Since last Monday, the movements in the market and the new exchange rate suggest an inflationary outbreak difficult to predict, which will have consequences that we still ignore. It seems that this last sector does not take this into account and does not measure the impact of the new economic situation on its plan.
• In this context, the government has made a number of somewhat complicated resolutions. The departure of the Minister of Finance and Finance,
  Nicolas Dujovne, and the announcement of his replacement,
  Hernán Lacunza, recognizes that the government's economic agenda is exhausted. The former Buenos Aires Economy Minister will badume his duties Tuesday and will address the country after announcing a series of economic measures announced last week. Lacunza should refer to the central problem that the government sees today, namely the exchange rate. The possibility that Macri speaks is not excluded.

• The second dilemma that Macri faces – and the central problem – is that we do not know what is the concept from which the government will request the vote here in the October elections and that the economic agenda is unknown today. However, until now, there was only one political answer.
• In the same vein, a second contradiction appears, namely the program launched by the government in the October elections, given that the program approved by the government with the
  International Monetary Fund (IMF) There is more to a certain extent, it did not exist anymore before the elections. However, on the basis of the measures announced last week, the markets are examining the extent to which Macri's economic policy is supported by the Monetary Fund.
• The visit of Roberto Cardarelli – head of the Argentine mission – was suspended. From Washington, they have not decided to send low-ranking officials because, most likely, the IMF claims to have no Washington officials in Buenos Aires as they announce measures they do not share. This is a way for the market to understand that it does not approve a program that is not theirs.
• The authorities hope that the dialogue with the IMF will resume next week. Until this afternoon, the Fund has not spoken with the government, nor with
  Alberto Fernandez Not with its surroundings. We can probably imagine informal conversations with the economists of the so-called Callao group, which are informal conversations that help the Fund to plan an idea of ​​what will happen now with Argentina's economic policy.
• Not only does the corporation not understand how the government is doing, but its main creditor and major funder are not. This is tricky as it raises questions about Argentina's ability to finance itself, the Treasury. This doubt that has the Fund can also have the market, which seeks to know if the maturities of treasury bills are renewed or not. It is important to point out that if the government does not continue to lend money to the government, the government must turn to the central bank, which would again commit large-scale funding from the treasury. In this case, the tax funding would directly affect the foreign exchange market, for example inflation.
• The IMF also made two major disbursements: $ 540 million at the end of September and another $ 1 billion in December. If Argentina is already, de facto, excluded from the agreement, the Fund will not return money in the dark. Not only is the discussion focused on the Macri program, but also on the funding of this program.

• The IMF has an audit office, people who control the fate of applied funds, who have to look very seriously at what they do and at the destination of the resources provided by the Fund's shareholders. Alberto Fernández sees this well, which now congratulates Sandleris for its rationality in the Central Bank's policy on reserves.
• We find ourselves in a complex situation where Macri behaves more like a candidate than a president and Alberto Fernández begins to behave more like a president than a candidate and to be more involved in the program than he imagines himself. for what would be his presidency.
• For example, after the statements of Alberto Fernández, in an interview published Monday in the newspaper Clarín, where he spoke of a renegotiation with private holders of government securities, there was a further deterioration of all Argentine securities on the market from Wall Street We are faced with a balance that depends both on what Fernández says and Macri does (although Macri is embarrbaded to say that there is a virtual president).
• The central problem is that both want to continue to compete when they have to start co-governing. The problem is more serious, because it is not that Macri resists this cooperation because he does not want to act, but because he thinks he can still win the elections, because he is convinced that there will be a ballot .
• Fernando Enrique Cardoso, President of Brazil, has twice formulated an idea: "To govern, it is to explain". The big void in Argentina today comes from an explanation of Macri about what happened from the Friday before the elections to today.
• The energy system of Alberto Fernández is also not known. He makes a very clear speech saying that his project is no longer Kirchner, but that it is "something else". He conceives a system of power with Peronist governors and unions and should be added to entrepreneurs, with whom he wishes to consolidate a government with a less tense relationship between them. The big question is whether this project has the membership of Cristina Kirchner and La Cámpora. The night of triumph, Máximo Kirchner's great importance was seen. What do you think? What is the role of an ideologue like Carlos Zannini, who is alongside the president today? Do you agree that Fernández inaugurates something that is not Kirchnerism or is simply a tactical withdrawal to win the elections and then resolve to an internal power conflict?
• Other questions: What will happen to justice? Some say that Zannini will be in court to secure some results in court proceedings. What will happen with the AFI? Who will control the machines that affect Comodoro Py?
• Today, Alberto Fernández tries to build his presidency against a Macri that he must necessarily consider as a person willing to coordinate a policy. And he is trying to build an energy scheme whose main alliance is federal and whose main stranger remains Cristina Kirchner.

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