The dramatic prognosis for the pandemic in Brazil …

Brazil’s death toll from coronavirus, which surpassed 300,000 on Wednesday, could reach 400,000 in two months or even earlier. This has been warned by health officials, who have stressed that this progression could decrease if the government of President Jair Bolsonaro changes its attitude by refusing to impose a national quarantine.

The worsening pandemic in Brazil this year, with a record number of deaths and a borderline or directly collapsed health system in some states, is putting every country in the region under control and threatening the whole world. “Unfortunately, the terrible situation in Brazil is also affecting neighboring countries,” said Carissa Etienne, director of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO). Last Tuesday, adding that it is “crucial” to adopt measures to stop the advance of the coronavirus.

The agency highlighted a rebound in covid-19 cases in the Venezuelan states of Bolívar and Amazonas, as well as in the department of Pando, Bolivia, and Loreto, Peru, all adjacent to the South American giant.

The massive circulation of the Brazilian variant or P.1, the mutation of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that emerged in the Amazon and has proven to be much more virulent, is at the center of this new wave. After its detection in the city of Manaus at the end of 2020, many countries have closed the passage by air and land to travelers from Brazil in an attempt to stop it.

However, three months later, the variant has already been identified in 32 US countries and territories as well as other parts of the world. Argentina is one of the places where it is present.

Last Tuesday, Brazil broke a new record by registering 3,251 deaths in 24 hours. A day later, it crossed the 300,000 death range by adding 2,224 more, while 12.2 of its 210 million people were infected.

The pressure led Bolsonaro, skeptical of the virus and stubborn opponent of containment, to form a crisis committee “to decide how the fight will unfold” for the pandemic. But the decision comes when 23 of its 27 states report 85% occupancy of their intensive care units and reports of shortages of oxygen and other medical supplies mount.

“The rate at which the number of deaths is increasing is serious,” said doctor and researcher Carlos Machado, director of the Covid-19 Observatory at the Fiocruz Institute in Rio de Janeiro., state center for research and manufacture of vaccines.

“If this rate continues in two months or perhaps less than two months, we can calmly reach 400,000 deaths. It’s a real tragedy“he added.

By announcing the creation of the crisis committee, Bolsonaro supported a campaign of “mass vaccination”, but did not endorse the social isolation decreed by various governors, which he compared to a “state of siege”.

The government’s position is “wrong” because “Containment is a bitter cure, but the only effective cure for the pandemic”Machado said.

The researcher pointed out that in the absence of “national containment” and the “low number of tests”, the P1 variant from the Amazon can mutate, giving rise to “a more aggressive variant requiring new vaccines”.

One of the states that has taken action is Rio de Janeiro, the most visited by foreign tourists, which decided a few days ago to close beaches and other restrictions. Its governor, Claudio Castro, has said the transfer of tourists will be discouraged during the “vacation” which begins tomorrow and ends on April 4. The isolation was passed by the Legislative Assembly of Rio de Janeiro, which brought forward several public holidays so that the period of inactivity could be extended and joined with Holy Week.