The economy alters the axioms of the electoral race

The persistence of

economic crisis

has an impact on the electoral conflict. Opinion studies reveal a novelty that modifies the strategies of the main actors. The axiom according to which

Cristina Kirchner

I would never come back to a relativized ballot. In the orders of

Bell

this innovation is incorporated. Although the most likely hypothesis remains the re-election of

Macri

, the likelihood that the former president will come back to power is not nil.

In addition, the image of Macri itself undergoes an alarming collapse in the cities that had preferred it in 2015: Mar del Plata, Mendoza, Cordoba, Rosario, La Plata. With a mysterious peculiarity: the consideration on his person falls, but the intention to vote is maintained. This new force has several behavioral changes. Especially in the oficialismo.

On Monday night, one of these relevant changes was recorded. It was in the food of Cippec. There, Macri gave a speech, for several reasons, unusual. The most interesting rarity is that it makes use of history. Unlike the few references to the past that Pro's rhetoric usually has, the president quoted Perón, Frondizi and Alfonsín. All three were portrayed as leaders who tried to thwart a trade blockade that hindered their economic success. The three were therefore portrayed as precursors of the one who evoked them.

This presentation was the late acceptance of a council: that of those who urged the government to show, upon his accession to power, the miseries of the inheritance received. Macri was smarter than these advisers. He explained that his task was not to go back the way for a decade. The knot to be loosed is secular. He provided figures. Over the last 77 years, there has been a budget deficit. Over the past 80 years, average inflation has been 62.6%, with the exception of hyperpolitics. One year out of three, there was a recession. There were eight defects. The last was the most important of human history.

In listing these calamities, Macri sought to forgive himself. As objectives become more difficult to reach, the size of the barriers should be exaggerated. Although the president may not have realized that his inventory denounced, atrociously, the superficiality with which he repeatedly proposed to beat inflation in one semester. In other words: the comparison with history has canceled for the umpteenth time a propensity for optimism, the immediate consequence of which is that therapies are only applied when diseases have advanced too far.

Demonstrating the chronicity of pathologies, Macri recalled the futility of remedies. He talked about fixed exchange rates, customs arrears and currency traps. And he mentioned the price controls of José Gelbard, Ricardo Mazzorín and Guillermo Moreno. He avoided mentioning that Roberto Lavagna was responsible for this commercial policy under Gelbard. A gesture of mercy Or ignorance. The president has condemned these revenues. And it was right. He pointed out that the past lacks answers for the future. And hit again. The surprise however was in his audacity. Because your administration is not moving away from these false solutions, but is coming back. Day after day, Macri is trying to expand its intervention, be it in the food market or in the foreign exchange market.

Before the guests of Cippec, these contradictions were not spared. Macri has ratified its goal: eliminate the skews of muted regulation until the suicide of the Argentine economy. He cited, for example, the extinction of the fluvial fleet. Or the trophy of the aeronautical market, in which the offer of flights per inhabitant is one third of that of Chile.

However, the most striking case for which he called to paint this Argentinian prebendary is the economy of Tierra del Fuego. He compared the inability to develop a natural activity, such as providing a logistics base for Antarctica, to sidereal subsidies that are entrusted to an electronics industry dedicated not to manufacturing, but to the badembly of mobile phones. The lament is unexpected. Firstly because one of the two maximum beneficiaries of this aberrant tax promotion is his "brother of life", Nicolás Caputo. The other is the importer Rubén Cherñajovsky, principal
Fund raising by Daniel Scioli. Second, because the current administration has done very little to correct this gap. On the contrary, it is about to aggravate it by restoring the subsidies for gas exploitation so that Caputo can set up a petrochemical plant near Ushuaia.

Although the greatest incongruity was provided by Governor Rosana Bertone. Repudiated criticism of the badembly of "national" phones with a tweet published on an iPhone.

Beyond the perplexities and the dissociations, Macri insisted, in his interesting speech of the Cippecs, on the urgency to abandon a tradition which generated very painful volumes of poverty and, at the same time, offensive fortunes supported by state decrees.

The exhibition corresponds to its electoral objective: it prefers, until the end of July, to address its most unconditional members. His principle is that the polarization recorded in the country is not the result of political manipulation, but of an ideological duel that takes place within the society. A brand new survey conducted by Poliarquía and the Wilson Center in Washington shows that the vision of international integration, the effects of globalization, the advantages or disadvantages of commercial openness, are contradictory.

The expectation of economic improvement is controversial. The scenario expected by the ruling party's top leaders at the end of February was a resuscitation of the level of activity, a downward inflation and a predictable dollar. In finance, they argue that only the first result has been achieved. Although the interannual indexes remain negative, they boast of a slow recovery, month by month, in the economic activity estimator, the index of industrial production, the register of private employment and sales in big shopping centers.

The problem is that inflation is still very high. The leaders of Cambio who, six months ago, were waiting for a resignation today are satisfied with its acceleration. It suffices that, driven by rising prices and the fear of a Kirchner ebb, the dollar will not go off.

These fears induce new behavioral changes. Marcos Peña, who, in tune with Jaime Durán Barba, was tired of challenging the alleged representativity of the institution, now devotes a good deal of his time trying to influence the expectations of the so-called "red circle" with a disdain often very justified. .

He has already met bankers' chambers, industrialists, owners of large companies and builders. He visited Catholic bishops and evangelical pastors. It is unclear if this will correct the image of the future of these leaders. But perhaps he could lessen the dislike that they felt towards him.

As Macri began to explain the legacy and Peña became more interested in elite opinion, Casa Rosada extended the table of political decisions for the umpteenth time. Horacio Rodríguez Larreta returned. And above all, Maria Eugenia Vidal returned. The governor is the main victim of the misfortunes of Cambiemos. She leads the district where the recession is the most corrosive, which impresses: "For the first time in my political career, I hear that they ask me to eat," she ventured in front of a collaborator . In addition, she participates in a competition in a district where Cristina Kirchner succeeds so well that she could, by drag, dedicate a governor. Axel Kicillof as President of Dardo Rocha? As in 2015, Vidal needs a wave of ticket clippings in his favor. Between 8% and 10%, which is the difference compared to Macri.

Negotiating with radicals is another sign of behavior change. They must celebrate their ratification agreement or break the alliance with Pro, as they will after May 12, election day in Cordoba, where they will be divided as a result of an intervention of the Casa Rosada, promoted by Larreta and Elisa Carrió. This decision seems more unfortunate over the days. Not only because Cambiemos was broken, but also because the government's favorite candidate, Mario Negri, no longer benefits from the polls conducted with Mayor Ramón Mestre, which had to be invalidated.

It is almost impossible for Juan Schiaretti not to re-elect himself. On the other hand, it is questionable whether the US citizenship maintenance program retains capital. In a poll conducted by local consultants Opinions and Trends, Rodrigo De Loredo, candidate for the succession of his ally Mestre in the capital, recorded 19% intention to vote, against 30% of the Peronist Martin Llaryora. But De Loredo has a strength: the vote of the PJ is very divided.

And Negri's candidate, Luis Juez, identifies more with the Peronist electorate than the radical electorate. Provisional balance sheet: De Loredo can still avoid, with a triumph in the municipality of Córdoba, that the radicals ignite against Macri at the convention of his party.

Also against this risk, there is a change of sensitivity within the government. As Santiago Dapelo reported in LA NACION, Macri had lunch last Friday with Martín Lousteau. He also had a long telephone conversation with him the same week. What did they talk about? Economy, politics, international situation, everything. Does Macri study Lousteau as a future Vice President? A relative of the president replied: "We did not talk about it, but I did not exclude it completely, and three weeks ago I did not do it." There is objective data. Macri has always liked Lousteau's style, especially his ability to explain complex problems in the press. It has been at least three months since one of his former Newman partners is betting for this election.

The return of Vidal, Larreta and the radicals to the console of the electoral decisions has a direct effect on the economy. They will begin, including Vidal, to demand a more flexible agreement with the Fund. They have already embarked on price politics: Gelbard, Mazzorín, Moreno … now, Sica. The second frontier is the monetary frontier. A shrewd economist, who was a government official, says: "With high inflation, derived from costs and currency uncertainty, the only thing that is achieved with this monetary prescription is to worsen the recession."

However, the real discussion with the Fund is variable. The authorities hope that Christine Lagarde and David Lipton, who are decisive examples of the agreement, admit to having lowered the entire non-intervention zone. In fact, it would reduce it. Because, given that the peso is struggling to appreciate, the real floor would be the dollar's daily rating, with a smaller distance from the ceiling.

Among pro-government economists, different ways of addressing this change are discussed. One of them, very gravitational in radicalism, says: "Lagarde and Lipton must understand that if they return, the Kirchnerists will defend the floating exchange rate in a university, because their career in the Fund will be completed before the late 2000s of Macri. "

The relationship with the Fund is the great trauma of the electoral dispute. It also mortifies Cristina Kirchner. She knows that if she returns to the government house, she will not be able to break this contract. Here is the problem: to maintain it would force to face reforms, inconceivable for its supporters: work, social security, taxation. Memories of his Greek friend Alexis Tsipras, who won a referendum in 2015 rejecting an agreement with the European Union and the Fund, but had to resign himself to accepting a plan of adjustment worse than that repudiated by the people.

The former president could well get out of the situation if she found her voice, she would moderate her speech. But there is one detail that prevents metamorphosis: Florencia heals her legs in Havana. It is the central seat of Bolivarian populism. Mecca of Maduro. Maybe it's convenient to find another hospital.