The economy could play against the elections

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The economy has just fallen for the first quarter, with a 5.8% decline from one year to the next, when domestic demand collapsed. of 12% and private consumption of 10.5%, as well as investment (-25%). Chinese seismic tariffs. Analysts believe that the recession has hit its bottom. The recovery will be evident in the second quarter. Sweet, but recovery finally. The best would be to come to the third and especially the fourth quarter. So when people go to vote, the "thermal sensation" of the "square meter" would be a relief. To a large extent, the adjustment of pension badets and social schemes as well as consumer loans underlie the anemic domestic consumption. But it is also hoped that once the agricultural sector ceases to play, that is, it will no longer increase the level of activity (which would be from August), it will be building that will show improvements and something commercial. make an offer in favor. The other area that is in perfect harmony is Minas y Canteras, mainly from Vaca Muerta, and it is continuously updated. But what is lagging behind and worrying is Brazil, which does not finish. Some recovery of the Brazilian economy was expected, but experts have lowered, month after month, the estimate of growth already below 1%.

Then the agriculture and the badociates are still good, the cattle a bit late, so that could work in favor of more; consumer-related sectors, with the exception of textiles, posted rebounds; construction and related, too; The worst is chemicals, plastics (for Brazil) and financial intermediation (decline in credit). Wholesale trade, electricity, gas and water are improving. With regard to the retail trade, private measures show that it has stopped falling, which is also reflected in the improvement of consumer confidence in recent months. Polls show that people say they are "bad" today, but think they will be "better" in the near future.

Salary adjustments have already started to take place. But, since incremental adjustments are agreed, the improvement in real wages will be gradual. As the monthly inflation rate continues to decelerate, real wages will regain ground and sluggish domestic consumption. For example, for the third quarter, the JFJ consultant estimates that the growth of the economy would be greater than 2%, which would accelerate above 5% in the fourth quarter. The improvement should therefore be noted at the "square meter" level. Neither a strong recovery nor a sidereal improvement is expected, but simply the fact that key variables such as real wages, consumption or employment cease to fall and even show slight increases. Some think this will help the government in the electoral battle. This does not mean that the level of activity and employment becomes a positive factor that can contribute to increasing the electoral chances of the party in power, but plays a neutral role in this regard when it votes and considers it as encouraging.

The semaphore of the economic indicators of the Broda study (expanded on the basis of that which guides the government) shows an inevitable improvement. For example, in April, 71% of the indicators surveyed had a positive balance. Thus, since the last EMAE record, which improved in the margin in April, at the Ferreres IRE and the Fiel IPI, it can be said that the floor was affected and the level of activity affected. Of course, this trick is not at all abrupt. For priests of recessions, the release of it (one of the worst since it exceeds in duration to that of 2009, 2012, 2014 and 2016) will not be a "V", that is, to say, no rebound occurs, but more Well, there will remain an "L" of stagnation with a slight improvement.