the effects of vaccination in 10 countries and the location of Argentina

How big will the second wave of coronavirus be in Argentina? How much could it increase in the coming weeks given the pace of the vaccination campaign?

Because, although the world already has 3 million deaths from Covid (2 million in over a year and 1 million in a quarter) and Argentina is plunged into a dramatic exponential growth of cases, the variable of vaccination and the different approaches to stop the virus are in decline unique trails in this tedious story.

It is handy to know them to estimate what might happen here. Here is a map of the situation in Argentina and 10 countries which symbolically (since all cuts are questionable) represent part of America, Europe and Asia.

Argentina

The mythical “plateau” with peaks in August, October and January has been replaced these days by a climbing wall that worries, more than by size, by the speed of growth. A month ago, the average number of daily cases was 6,740. Now more than 22,000.

Four facts emerge at the end of this note: 1) Compared to the 10 countries detailed below, Argentina is (almost face to face with Brazil) the one who vaccinated the least: 11.4% of the population has received at least one dose, a strategy that has not yet countered the second wave, which has an unpredictable scope.

2) If the rankings are used to understand where on the planet the pandemic strikes the most, it is undoubtedly here: out of 216 countries, World counters positions us in the 10th place in countries with the most severe cases (3,900, at the end of this note).

In addition (3), the weekly average of daily deaths (almost 260) he doubled in less than two weeks.

For all this, it is clear that (4) it was not a good idea to ignore the advice of experts who already at the end of the year indicated the urgency of limit mobility and the use of closed spaces to support open schools. This had to be implemented before and not during the exponential growth.

United States

Gradually, the funeral air is ventilated in the country which in the boreal winter had more than 250,000 cases per day and which accumulated more deaths from Covid: 565,289 at the end of this note. Today, the average number of infections exceeds 70,000 per day. It sounds like a lot, but if you measure per million people, Argentina has 126% more.

Although the United States is experiencing a new business ‘ringtone’, 37% of the vaccinated population (with at least a dose of Pfizer, Moderna or Janssen) already gives another air to the future.

At least that’s what analysts The New York Times They predict that by the middle of this year, 70% of the population over 18 will be vaccinated. And at the end of July, at 90%.

Israel

This Middle Eastern country is hoping for leadership in immunization: almost the 62% of the population received at least one dose (56%, both) and coronavirus cases have steadily declined since January.

The secret? They massively administered doses of Pfizer which they bought quickly, after paying more than double than European Union countries: US $ 28 per injection, according to the agreement published by the Israeli government.

A few days ago, Eran Segal, Israeli scientific reference and recognized communicator of the pandemic, summed up the auspicious effect of the vaccination that began in December: they see 96% fewer infections, 90% fewer severe cases and an 85% drop in deaths.

Sweden

The country that President Alberto Fernández had used as a counterpoint to strengthen local management has seen ups and downs in its curve since the strong peak in January. But since February, cases have increased at a rate that has placed Sweden among the countries with the most daily confirmed cases by population: 606 new cases per day, per million population (in Argentina there are 492) .

It must be said that although this country has applied much less restrictions than Argentina, the “panoramic” figures are not radically different. There, they immunized 15% of the population with at least one dose; in Argentina, 11.4%. Regarding the deaths, no photo is encouraging: here we put 1304 deaths per million inhabitants. There, 1363.

Spain

Although in size the populations of Spain and Argentina are comparable, the “Covid” photo is outdated: they cross the fourth wave contagions, so they carry a 30% more deaths. One thing to project locally is that, although they have vaccinated 18% of the population, they are still unable to avoid another high and growing plateau of infections, with some 8,600 new cases per day.

Like other countries that have gone through several “waves”, they repeat that of “tightening and loosening” restrictions. For example, Madrid, the capital, announced an extension (until April 26) of the limit on social gatherings, as well as the 23-6 curfew, which in Argentina has just been tightened.

France

A similar fate is unfolding in France, where a few days ago a package of mobility restrictions was relaunched in much of the country: curfew from 7 p.m. to 6 p.m., closure of schools and non-essential shops, among others. , until the first days of May.

The reason is clear: with the dominant British variant (more contagious and virulent), France, which in December had fallen to 150 new cases per million inhabitants, now has 521.

With 17% of the 67 million inhabitants vaccinated with one dose, the Institut Pasteur Research Center has predicted that restrictions will not be relaxed until Septemberas long as you ‘get enough immunization’. That is (they consider in this institute), 90% of over 18 years.

Italy

It is tempting to say that Italy “anticipates” what will happen here: they have come for weeks with more than 23,000 cases a day and now they have fallen to 15,000, in a very harsh context in terms of social conflict because of the claims of sectors (especially gastronomic, forced to close at 18) that require special attention to their financial situation.

But there is a point where the comparison makes water: Italy has a population 33% larger than Argentina and a backpack 1,917 deaths per million inhabitants, 47% more than here.

Although the vaccination strategy parallels those of France and Spain (between 16% and 18% of these populations have received a dose), and although infections seem to be decreasing, in Italy the lethality is worrying: with more of 439 daily deaths, weekly average, no one expects restrictions to be relaxed until May.

England

With 49% of the population vaccinated with a single dose, the country that vaccinated the most after Israel was played by the equation that Argentina also emulated: prioritize the administration of a dose to reach more people.

Public Health England assures that with the 15 million injections administered to adults over the age of 70, averted 10,400 deaths in this segment. And in phase with the third confinement, infections in the third month of the year they fell 60%.

Another damning fact is that by the end of January, they had recorded over 1,200 deaths per day (weekly average). Now they are under 31.

Of course, to achieve this, the closing was long and intense. In some jurisdictions, schools started operating in March, but in others they only opened these days (mid-April), as well as food establishments (open air) and shops in other non-essential items.

Brazil

If Brazil and Argentina are tied in terms of vaccination, the position of denial in the face of the pandemic, of a strict “antiquarantism” on the part of President Jair Bolsonaro, has resulted in a data that sums up the differences between these neighbors: the population of Brazil is 4, 7 times bigger than here but, per day, the coronavirus deaths 11.3 times higher.

The outlook, with 90% of ICUs occupied by Covid patients in 16 states, is bleak, a situation that has undoubtedly accelerated the variant P1 (“From Manaus”), 40% more contagious. Thus, Brazil has positioned itself as the second country in the world with the most deaths for the coronavirus, 365,954, just below the United States and above Mexico.

Chile

A few weeks ago, Chile generated a great regional pale: the vaccination strategy seemed enviable (they reached almost 40% of the population with at least one dose), but the infections, which had already increased since December (effect ” summer vacation ”), acceleration of severe cases, deaths and they tightened the fragile health system by 95%.

Such a contradictory scenario can be explained on the basis of two hypotheses: 1) the lower efficacy of the Chinese Sinovac vaccine (54%) and, 2) a certain “relaxation” of the population, which “Pause“ hastily in vaccination.

Based on the latter, there are those who warn (and it would be good to broadcast it here) that the Chilean photo of the last few weeks could be a provide of what will happen in Argentina in about a month.

Uruguay

The place Our world in data builds a percentage index based on how tough governments are against Covid. The variables on which they are based are, among others, the closure of schools, non-essential stores, the home office, mobility limitations …

Uruguay is at the head of the countries of the selection proposed in these lines, with the 87% hardening. Argentina, at 72% (figure which should increase this weekend). The most “relaxed” are the United States (58%) and Israel (51%).

The reason? A month ago, the country that seemed to have a “Covid-free” reality recorded an average death of around 8 deaths per day. Now they have 8 times more, and the curve is rising at the rapid rate of contagion.

However (small country advantage), they have already vaccinated 28% of the population. And, color data, they were able to close with Pfizer.

AS