The eight countries, including two from Latin America, are showing signs of a possible global recession

The global economy is doing well. Or maybe not so much?

The IMF predicted July global GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2019 and 3.5 percent for 2020. These figures are not insignificant.

However,
The prevailing climate on the international markets is not a satisfaction but an anxiety that "deepens every day"according to
The Economist magazine noted in a recent editorial.

The nervousness of the investors becomes more visible in the behavior of the stock exchanges but especially in the types of operations that they carry out.

The price of gold, refuge par excellence capitals,
It is at its peak of the last six years.

And while the United States has the lowest unemployment rate in half a century and the longest period of economic expansion in its history, the voices that anticipate the end of the good journey are multiplying.

At the same time, the demand for government bonds from strong and predictable economies such as Germany and Switzerland remains
offer negative interest rates.

And while the United States has the lowest unemployment rate in half a century and the longest period of economic expansion in its history, the voices that anticipate the end of the cycle are growing.

Some of them point out that the US economy has recorded a reversed yield curve (or "yield curve") for five months, a phenomenon that occurs when the bond interest rates Long term condition are lower in the short term and generally anticipates the onset of a crisis.

"Recession" seems to be the buzzword among badystsBut why are these negative expectations due if world GDP continues to grow and no serious crisis has yet erupted?

The answer seems to be in the problems presented by some key economies of the world. BBC World tells you what these countries are.

1. United States

With a growth forecast of 2.6% for 2019 (the highest G-7 rate, which includes the most industrialized countries), the United States seems to be doing well.

"Our economy is by far the best in the world. The lowest unemployment ever seen in almost all categories. En route to strong growth after the conclusion of the trade agreements, "Donald Trump said Sunday on Twitter.

However, badysts fear that the trade war with China will eventually tip the country into recession.

Apparently aware of the possible "collateral damage" of this confrontation, Trump postponed last week to December 15 the expected increase in tariffs on products from China.

Despite this,
the shock between Washington and Beijing has impacts that go beyond these two countries and it is considered a central element that can be decisive in provoking an international recession.

2. China

The Chinese economy continues to record a significant growth rate of 6%. However it is
the youngest that this country has recorded in the last 17 years.

The slowdown is partly due to the efforts of the government of President Xi Jinping to try to develop the country in higher level sectors such as services and high technology, but also because of the
reduced returns derived from its model of state capitalismwhich shows what some badysts consider "signs of exhaustion".

In recent years, the state has increased its control over the economy to the detriment of private actors and most of the new bank loans were to public enterprises.

In addition,
industrial production fell in July to its lowest point of the last 17 years, something that can be partially attributed to the tariffs imposed by Trump.

The measures taken by Washington have also led to a slowdown in exports, with consequences for the global economy.

United Kingdom

During the second quarter of 2019, the British economy contracted by 0.2%.

Faced with this phenomenon,
badysts attribute their economic difficulties to doubts related to the exit process of the country of the European Union (EU), called Brexit, originally scheduled for March 29th.

The promise of the current Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, to materialize the Brexit on Oct. 31 – whether or not there is an agreement with the EU – and the attempts current British Parliament to avoid an exit without agreement add gasoline to fire. d & # 39; uncertainty

Since the tight referendum in which it was decided to leave the UK from the EU in June 2016,
the pound sterling rose from 1.46 USD to 1.21 USD.

4. Germany

Considered for decades as the economic engine of the European train, the German economy fell by 0.1% in the second quarter of this year.

Recognized for its high export capacity – especially for machinery, trucks and vehicles – it is precisely in this sector that the downturn in the German economy has been caused by a sharp drop in sales, particularly for to China.

Year on year, German exports fell by 8%.

This situation led some badysts to predict that the country was headed for an impending recession.

If this happens, the world's fourth largest economy has a good budget surplus of 7.4% of GDP, which would provide it with the funds needed to stimulate the economy.

5. Italy

With a debt exceeding 130% of its GDP and a stagnant economy down 3% between 2008 and 2018, many people think that Italy can become the new source of economic instability within the country. 39, European Union.

Its banking sector, in which financial institutions have interests in other parts of Europe, seems burdened with debts that are difficult to recover.

During,
the manufacturing sector is trying to fight – although with unsuccessful results – before China's competition.

6. Brazil

Ten years ago, Brazil was named as a member of the Brics, a group of emerging economies with accelerated economic growth rates (the other members being Russia, China, India and India). 39, South Africa) which would surpbad developed countries in 2050.

The results of the last decade, however, have
seriously doubt this possibility.

In the months leading up to Jair Bolsonaro's election to the presidency, the markets have raised favorable expectations for the country.

However, less than a year after coming to power,
the prospects for significant growth have been postponed to 2020.

A substantial part of the bad prospects that Brazil faces is a consequence of the problems elsewhere.

Among these, there is the economic crisis in Argentina, its neighbor and partner of Mercosur; slowing growth in China, which
now, we need to import less raw materials from Brazil; as well as fears that their sales in the United States may also decrease. as a result of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.

7. Argentina

After the last primary elections in Argentina, whose results suggest a very likely return to power of Peronism, the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange (Merval)
It has suffered the second largest fall in the world since 1950.

In addition, the price of the nation's bonds dropped to 54 cents per dollar, which means that the markets
They consider that it is very likely that the country incurs a default on its debt.

Between 9 and 14 August, the ratio between the Argentine peso and the dollar rose from 45 to 1 to 60 to 1.

But the economic difficulties did not begin with these election results.
Argentina has been in recession for a year and has an inflation rate higher than 50%.

The poverty rate is already 35%, compared with 27.3% in the first half of last year, according to the Social Debt Observatory of the Catholic University of Argentina.

These factors seem to have played a fundamental role in the electoral defeat of President Mauricio Macri.

However, the eventuality of a final triumph of the Peronist candidacy formed by Alberto Fernández as presidential candidate and Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as an aspiring vice-presidential candidate, arouses lively fears in the markets, where many start to badume that Argentina default your debt.

8. Singapore

The possibility of a recession rises in the near horizon of the Singapore economy after its GDP has declined by 3.3% in the second quarter of this year.

Analysts attribute the poor results mainly to
decline in exports of manufactured goods, as well as the decline in sales due to the decline of Chinese tourism.

Thus, Singapore would be another collateral victim of the trade war between Washington and Beijing.