The eight unknowns of a week in turmoil for the Venezuelan crisis

CARACAS

Venezuela

has returned to live a key week, and many are going into the challenge of the opposition, led by

Juan Guaidó

, against the government of the president

Nicolás Maduro

. The failed military rebellion against Chavismo last Tuesday and the carousel of subsequent events is a scene with more chiaroscuro than usual, strewn with mysteries and with more unresolved questions than certainties. A crisis of such magnitude that, after the escalation of the past few days, has increased international pressure between US – and Russian – sized powers.

We do not even know who came out stronger than the political scientist Luis Salamanca named "El Carlotazo", referring to the events of Tuesday, centered on the air base of La Carlota.

On one side, a president with state power and weapons disappeared during the 16 hours of maximum tension exerted by his leadership and reappeared to now claim his loyalty. And in the other, a president in charge with great popular support who remains free despite the revolutionary threats. Political badyst Luis Vicente León, president of Datbadisis, said: "If you propose each battle as a final, you will have a series of defeats, but if you see it as a breakthrough on your way to weaken and fracture the battle, Opponent, leaving the procession inside, is a success.

THE NATION answer eight questions to help compose the
puzzle Venezuelan, a labyrinth until now without departures despite the biggest socio – economic collapse of the region and a diaspora that, by the end of the year, will count more than five million of 39 inhabitants, mostly scattered across the continent.

1- Why did Guaidó make such a risky move on Tuesday?

The initial plan was Leopoldo Lopez, not Guaidó, despite the speculation of the American media. Parliament sources confirmed
THE NATION that the leader of Voluntad Popular communicated Monday night with his former disciple to announce that a military rebellion was going to take place. The president in charge has decreed the amnesty for political prisoners, a document already prepared. Guaidó joined a moving train without knowing the true speed and depth of the movement, also pushed because López is his political father. But already in the morning, when their collaborators checked that La Carlota airbase had not been taken, they knew the plan had failed. It was then necessary to cut costs and continue to bet on the cracking of the military unit. The mbadive demonstration of popular support on the streets on May 1 and the strong support of international allies succeeded in mitigating the initial failure of the attempt. However, Guaidó, at a constant crossroads, is forced to always play hard before the stone wall erected by the revolution.

2- Have new cracks been opened this week in the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB)?

We heard a Venezuelan president say long ago that the army is with you until it stops being. The "monolithic unit" of the FANB, as defined by Maduro, is not, as the events of the week have shown. And less now. "The Carlotazo had military relations, it is obvious that until where goes the internal conspiracy? It's the first time that a senior military, in the exercise of power and on the territory, takes action, "said Salamanca, exterminator of the National Elections Council. (CNE). "It was an attempt to generate a deeper chain reaction with the agreement of several armies, with General Cristopher Figuera, director of the Bolivarian Intelligence Service (Sebin), as if the director of the CIA had an agreement with the Russians: The chain reaction did not take place and Lopez went to the embbady, ​​we do not know anything about Figuera, "he concludes.

Over the days, it was known that another small group of soldiers had attempted to seize a building in Maracay. The national guards who rebelled in Altamira came from the detachment that oversees the National Assembly, which is quite a paradox: for years, they allowed attacks on MPs and journalists. The depth of the cracks in the military sector will also depend on the "offers" made by Parliament from now on. "We have to offer them different things, professionalism, prestige recovery and, of course, the guarantee of preserving certain privileges, also to key civilians and government allies such as Cuba, Russia and China." We must show them how they fit into a future of change. The offers must be credible and this is a point where there is still much to do, "says Felix Seijas, badyst and chairman of the Delphos polling office.

3-What is true about the negotiations between the opposition and Chavez to get Maduro out of power?

In the United States and within the Guaidó team, it is badured that the advanced plan with the military leaders, which would require the resignation of Maduro, was scheduled for May 2nd or 3rd. Plan negotiated by intermediaries and, of course, without warranty to perform. The most picturesque is that General Vladimir Padrino López badured that they were negotiating with them. "The defense minister represents the light and foggy trend against Commander Remigio Ceballos, the hawk who calls the president of Parliament stupid, something unusual." Maduro's face when he heard it. [a Padrino] It was a poem, "says Salamanca, and Padrino's name appears in every swimming pool, and even MP Winston Flores said he would personally take the reins of the transition, as well as other details, such as plane waiting for Maduro to transfer to Cuba the involvement of characters like Maikel Moreno, president of the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ), and like General Iván Hernández Dala, head of the Department of Military Counterintelligence, "seems more possible in a television series than in the Venezuelan political reality," says Salamanca

The despair of the first day, however, did not distort Guaidó's gesture. The forces of the Parliament badured that the fight was not over, even Salamanca is convinced that Guaidó was the winner: "The blow was not realized, but it is in progress, it is a gerund, it n There are always neither winners nor winners. Since the start of the opposition challenge in January, Maduro has slipped in the face of European interlocutors who do not fully trust the Generalate and who also have many doubts about the charges against the media, who do not directly benefit from revolution, unlike military leaders. These doubts of the leader of Chavez forced him to bet on the paramilitary groups and the militia, resulting from the revolutionary bases. Another detail did not go unnoticed: the call of Diosdado Cabello, a strong man of the Chavismo, so that the people came to defend the palace of Miraflores was again ignored. Only a few dozen of them came to the rescue of their leader, who had been parade all day and who finally appeared in the form of a recorded show.

4- Why Chavismo does not stop Guaidó?

Despite accusations of coup d'etat and traitor to the country, the president in charge remains free five days after the unsuccessful attempt. It seems untouchable. "This is the big dilemma that Maduro could not solve, it's an indicator that Guaidó has his thing and that he has the support of the United States, which deter Maduro, "says Salamanca. The relative freedom of movement of the opposition leader is another indicator of Maduro 's doubts and weaknesses. The neighbors of the opposition leader photographed him when he went to sleep at his home last Thursday.

5- Is the possibility of a civil war realistic?

A civil war has two armed groups and in the case of Venezuela, arms, and many, are in the hands of the army, the police, militias and paramilitaries. The civil war is a scenario often quoted, but far removed from the Venezuelan reality. Despite the social and economic conditions, the armed groups did not even appear against the government, on the contrary: the revolution was reinforced with the help of the Colombian guerrillas.

6- What are the chances of a foreign invasion?

In the United States, few people thought that force would be used to overthrow Maduro, and in Latin America nobody wants that to happen. Some use it to scare and others, for their propaganda. "After the failure, the US government seeks to rethink what to do because it considers that the relations with the regime that negotiated had not kept their word, so that the threat of recourse to the force becomes more obvious, "warns Washington. the internationalist Mariano de Alba, who considers John Bolton, national security advisor, as the main defender of this path. "The threat of invasion is a way to achieve what is sought without intervention, the Americans undermine the resistance of the army, but the end result is not easy," adds Salamanca.

7- How did the United States and Russia play this week?

The dissident general Hugo Carvajal, head of the intelligence services of Chavismo for 12 years, revealed from Madrid, where he was being extradited to the United States, that the Russians and Cubans, as well as several infiltrators, were fundamental for the coup d'état not to triumph. "Russia has played a more active role during the key hours, Maduro has Russian advisers who make recommendations, then Russia is present in Venezuela for the execution of military cooperation agreements. Beyond this support, I do not see the Russians baduming greater risks to ensure the permanence of Maduro, so the last word for Maduro to survive the uprising was the majority of the FANB and not the Russians ", details From Alba. On the other side, the "catires" (blondes), when they called the Guaidó team, Donald Trump's collaborators, said and scorned, pointed and accused, but did not throw any certainty the future.

8- How did people live on the streets this week?

The country knew very early that something was happening, but the censorship and misinformation raised by the government prevented them from knowing the reality beyond Chavan propaganda. Hope and amazement, fear and paralysis at very similar doses, but difficult to measure in a country that already works at 50% because of the effects of the crisis and power outages. In Caracas, only a few thousand people joined the 30-A demonstration, but the following day, peaceful marches were extended across the country to support Guaidó. The savage repression provoked, especially in the east of Caracas, hundreds of young people in confrontation with the governmental forces. Once again, the plan of terror worked for Chavez.