The end of the “mash” with the blue dollar and the doubt of those who bought at 195 $

Those who have the opportunity to purchase the US $ 200 quota in December, the solidarity dollar would pay out $ 144.38 per dollar.

By buying this ticket and selling it on the parallel or blue market at the buy rate of $ 140, that person would lose 3.1% with the transaction, which is the most obvious conclusion that the “pure”, consisting to buy the dollar “Solidarity” to sell it in parallel and make a difference, has ended.

The blue around $ 146/148 has accumulated a 25% drop since the iconic October 23 when it hit $ 195 and turned on the red lights on the government’s financial control panel.

The galloping parallel dollar had triggered expectations of lack of control in determining price formation and crippled decisions pending a definition on whether the government would end up devaluing the peso further in the search to stabilize markets. .

Minister Martín Guzmán, who, with Michelangelo Pesce They are winning the currency game, they have chosen to deepen stocks and controls instead of greater devaluation, knowing that the official dollar does not lag markedly and that a jump in the exchange rate would cause a inflation surge.

The obvious question in the face of the new reality of exchange is whether the calm holds or not and for how long.

Three facts work in favor of maintaining the current scenario in the short term: the central bank has gained reserves last week, dollar deposits They stopped falling in November, there are some very experienced traders who started selling the dollar futures for May 2021 betting that the government will avoid a devaluation before the October election.

In addition, there are two important macro-data: one is the negotiation with the IMF to obtain a loan allowing the government to pay the maturities. 44,000 million USD that accumulate between 2021 and 2023 and the other is the “tailwind” that Argentina can receive from abroad due to the sustained price of soybeans and the very low level of the international interest rate.

Between soybeans and “difference” between dollars there is an important game to play.

During a meeting organized by Techint for its suppliers, the former vice-minister of the economy of Axel Kicillof, Emmanuel Alvarez Agis, focused on the inverse relationship between a high soybean price and the blue dollar price.

According to Agis, Argentina could receive the biggest “tailwind” in a decade, but warned: “Yes, in June 2021 soybeans are at US $ 450 per tonne but the difference between the official dollar and the parallel is 100%, no matter what the value of the legume ”, the beneficial effect would be neutralized.

His vision, therefore, is that the favorable weight that an increase in grain prices might have on the dollar income of the Central Bank would disappear if the exchange rate differential was greater than 100%, as happened in the latter. month. The larger the spread, the fewer currency settlements there are.

Regarding the negotiations with the IMF, it is clear that if Guzmán takes measures to channel the fiscal adjustment (end of the bond IFE, approval in the Senate of the new formula to obtain pensions from inflation, etc.) and reduce the trade gap, politics adds clouds.

Argentina’s abstention from the condemnation of the Organization of American States for what it saw as a fraudulent legislative election by the government of Nicolás Maduro, the attack by Cristina Kirchner on members of the Supreme Court of Justice or the applause spouses of the president and vice-president to a confirmation of the Montoneros in the Human Rights Day law, they do not provide a favorable framework for the negotiations that Guzmán will conduct in Washington.

The IMF demands that the deal to be reached has political approval and the government says its intention is for everything to be approved by Congress. In this sense, a time of surrender begins.

The reduction to 72% of the exchange rate differential (wholesaler counted with liquidation), the fact that the Central Bank bought dollars and a slight improvement in Argentinian bonds generate the idea that the government can pass through the exchange bridge until April, when soy dollars arrive. Far from being able to lead, there are market operators who consider that there is a change of scenario.