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Last Saturday, Nicolás Maduro received another bad news. The opposition, posing as the legitimate government of Venezuela, announced the failure of negotiations with its regime, which took place in Barbados with the mediation of Norway. And he was eager to hold him responsible for this failure. The reason is tacit, but known: Maduro did not want to engage in an electoral outing in six to nine months, as claimed by his rivals. Below this dissent operates the true limit. For Venezuelan leaders, there is no way out that does not involve some impunity. But this inconceivable clause is only discussed in sordid conversations with leaders.
The novelty is negative for the Bolivarian dictator. He must always have a permanent dialogue, as a valve capable of preventing the explosion of discontent. Now he will wait until another trading table is reinstalled. The international contact group, which is part of the European Union, Mexico, Uruguay and Costa Rica. The special adviser of Europe, the prestigious Enrique Iglesias, recommended to disable any direction until the result of the Norwegian mediation is known. Europeans defend a strategy different from that of the United States. For example, instead of offending, the gravitational privileges of Cuba compared to Maduro. And rejects additional regional sanctions, such as those imposed by Washington. Even when they are applied against Venezuelans accused of torture.
The frustration of the Barbados exercise adds to other incidents, such as revealing cracks in the diet. The badault of April 30, which allowed the liberation of Leopoldo López, revealed a military dissent. This fragility was followed by another: on August 19, the Associated Press news agency revealed negotiations between the regime's second, Diosdado Cabello, and representatives of Donald Trump's government. The hair, of course, denied them. They happened behind Maduro. And they undertook to promote the release of Cabello as ambbadador to Turkey, with the diffuse promise of a return to take over the country and organize the electoral exit.
Despite these difficulties, which are mitigated in the context of a troubled economy, Maduro could celebrate some changes on the international front. One of them is the departure of John Bolton as a national security advisor, which Donald Trump understood to become a less aggressive diplomat, also vis-à-vis Venezuela. Senator Marco Rubio, guardian of republican electoral interests in Florida, sounded the alarm. And obliged Trump to deny with a tweet this interpretation. He said his vision of Cuba and Venezuela was more difficult than Bolton's and that, contrary to what he supposed, his adviser was holding him back. One detail corroborates Trump's statement: the appointment of Michael Kozak as head of Latin America to the State Department. A renowned human rights defender, Kozak has already supported Elliot Abrams, Washington's strict policy officer with regard to Venezuela. The latest manifestation of this strategy was the convening, within the framework of the OAS, of the Inter-American Treaty on Reciprocal Assistance (TIAR), at the request of Juan Guaidó, President of the National Assembly of the Venezuela, that more than 50 foreign governments have recognized President of the country to the OAS, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, El Salvador, the United States, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Paraguay and the Dominican Republic voted for. Mexico criticized the decision. Costa Rica, Panama, Peru, Trinidad and Uruguay abstained. The appeal to TIAR, in which the possibility of armed intervention appears, has great symbolic power: to leave TIAR was the first slogan of the regional policy of Hugo Chávez. Guaidó came back there.
The main argument in favor of this escalation would be provided by Colombia. The magazine Week He published documents that would demonstrate the protection of the Chavez regime to the FARC and ELN guerrillas to destabilize the government of Ivan Duque. The news coincided with the announcement of a FARC sector, led by Iván Márquez, of a return to the armed struggle. Concerned about the process, Maduro summoned foreign ambbadadors to deny the accusations. His intelligence apparatus counter-attacked by publishing photos of Guaidó in fraternization with two Colombian paramilitaries linked to drug trafficking. Guaidó put these images into perspective. But he suffered the blow.
Alarmed by the ghost of an attack, Maduro mobilized his troops towards the Colombian border. The hypothesis of an invasion ignites the nationalism of the Venezuelan army, to which the dictator looks suspiciously. Even in this case, the idea of an advance by the Colombian army, in addition to that of Venezuela to end the regime, seems unlikely. The isolationist Trump boasts of not involving his country in other military conflicts. And there is another key factor that prevents this solution for Venezuela: beyond Jair Bolsonaro's anti-Chavez, the Brazilian army refuses to participate and considers it's essential to discourage a confrontation between two countries with which it shares the border.
There is another good news for Maduro: in Argentina, Mauricio Macri, anti-Chavez, has entered an eclipse. It is very likely that on October 27 he will be defeated by Alberto Fernández, a moderate Kirchnerist who aligns on the dialogism of Mexico and Uruguay. The clearest sign of this change of position of Argentina was found in Madrid two weeks ago: Fernandez had lunch with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, the character who insisted that the unbearable Venezuelan crisis was to to be overcome by negotiation. This is what the cynical Maduro is waiting for, worried that the Contact Group is replacing the frustrated Norwegians and thus continues the endless nightmare.
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