The epidemic in Colombia: a project that sparked violent protests and deepened a fracture inherited from the peace accords

The violence that has struck Colombia has been hidden in a deep divide and barely camouflaged amid the pandemic of coronavirus it had a big impact in the country. The failure of the tax reform promoted by the president Ivan Duque lit the fuse of protests. The project that expelled the Minister of Finance from his post, Alberto Carrasquilla placeholder image, was the last straw that fell from the social fissure inherited from the 2016 peace accords.

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The result surprised everyone. Popular protests led to the worst political and social crisis after the delivery of arms by the FARC guerrillas that ended more than 50 years of violence. The repression of the security forces and the clashes provoked at least 24 dead and more than 800 injured amid enormous tensions and a health emergency derived from the pandemic that has not yet subsided. According to the NGO Temblores, the fatal victims are around 40. The Institute for Development and Peace Studies (Indepaz) has reported more than 31 deaths.

Colombian political analyst Hector Riveros, a lawyer and director of the Institute of Liberal Thought, said TN.com.ar that this phenomenon is multi-causal and common to several Latin American countries such as Chile, shaken by similar manifestations in 2019.

“There are many factors. It is something very profound that is happening everywhere. There is a change in values, cultural references and ways of understanding authority among young people which is going to have a very strong effect on the functioning of the political system, ”said Riveros.

And he added: “It has happened in Chile and elsewhere. Young people have a way of relating to authority in which the political system does not fit well ”.

For Riveros, “there are other issues that are emerging on the surface that have to do with social dissatisfaction and demands for more education and employment for young people. The pandemic has made this whole picture worse and the result is great social dissatisfaction” in the country.

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But in the Colombian case “there are two additional elements: the first, shared by many, is the illegitimacy of the institutions. People don’t trust their governments nobody believes in parties, neither in Congress nor in justice», He indicated.

Héctor Riveros, political analyst

No one believes in parties, Congress or justice

And he stressed: “It makes things very difficult because there is no desire to tidy up. There is no very visible leadership. Today, in Colombia, it is not so easy to identify who to talk to in order to try to understand or at least defuse the pressure ”.

The crack of society

In Colombia, as in Argentina and other countries in the region, there is also a deep division of society.

Riveros said that in his country “there is a strong slapCaused by the demobilization agreements of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) in 2016 and the subsequent plebiscite that ratified these treaties.

“It has divided us deeply and we are more and more divided. Most people don’t seem to care, but that was the origin of the split. The company was divided into two groups, some are from Boca, others from River», He illustrated.

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In this context, Riveros explained: “the government represents those who were against“Peace accords signed five years ago and”those in opposition and participating in protests were in favor”From these treaties.

“This distinction is still there. It’s undeniable. Nobody talks about it anymore, but we are already aligned, whatever the problem, ”he said.

“A delicate political phase”

French political analyst Yann Basset, Professor of political science at the Universidad del Rosario de Bogotá, acknowledged that Colombia “is going through a very delicate political phase because of the issue of the peace agreements that have caused a deep division of society“.

But “today, the question of peace does not appear so much in the demands. This is not the concern of the day, ”he said.

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However, specifies the French analyst based in Colombia since 2002, the frustrated tax reform “was the fuse that set the bomb on fire»Social protests.

In particular, the project had a strong impact on the middle class through the broadening of the tax base by the collection of income tax from employees who earned $ 663 per month with the possibility of extending it in 2023 to those who received $ 470.

Duque eventually withdrew the initiative, but it was too late. Poverty, according to official statistics, fell from 37% to 45% in one year. The COVID-19 pandemic has so far left over 2.9 million cases and 76,015 deaths, with overwhelming effects on the economy and social situation due to the severe restrictions imposed and the loss of thousands of people. resulting jobs.

The protests led to new demands and were more massive after episodes of police repression. The government, in turn, marked the groups The Terrorists and accused them of promoting violence.

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“The event acquires a more autonomous character. Demonstrators are protesting the effects of the pandemic and the very harsh closures we have had in Colombia for over a year which have caused absolutely disastrous economic and social effects in Colombian society, ”Basset said.

What can happen in the future

Popular protests took to the streets a year after the presidential elections in May 2022.

“It’s very difficult to know what can happen in the midst of this situation. An event of this magnitude can change the landscape, but in a direction that it is still too early to try to envision, ”Basset said.

And he added: “We are in moments which redefine the political panorama but without knowing what will come out of it. Everything will depend on President Duque’s ability to organize credible dialogues this can calm the situation of public order or if we continue in a spiral of violence, from which obviously anything can come ”.

Yann Basset, political analyst

We went back 15 years in social matters in the pandemic

For Basset, social dissatisfaction is essential to understand the crisis. “We went back 15 years to social issues in the pandemic. It’s a real disaster and this is what is manifested today in the demonstrations, ”he said.

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But Riveros, in turn, believes the crisis could spell the end of the Duque government.

“Presidents fall if they lose their majority in Congress, which is the one with the ability to overthrow them and which in Colombia is difficult, although Duque has a precarious legislative majority,” he said.

And he concluded: “I don’t see that there is instability in the sense that the president has trouble staying in government ”.