The failed uprising opens uncertainties about the future of relations between Maduro and the army

The wick ignited by the anticoque was not only able to reach important barracks, beyond the air base of La Carlota, in the locality of Caraqueña to Altamira. Neither the street has responded to the measure expected by the young opposition leader. That of May 1 was going to be, he had promised, "the greatest manifestation of history" and a coup de grace for the government. The reality was very different and the sheer obstinacy of challenging the National Guard of radicalized youth groups seemed to keep the movement alive.

In spite of these two relative failures, Guaidó, appointed acting president by the National Assembly, emptied parliament by the regime, He came back Wednesday to show himself after such a challenge at the head of an event, as limited as it is. In another context, Chavismo would have immediately jailed him and accused him of committing serious crimes, as was the case in 2014 with Leopoldo López.

Whether for fear of the reaction of the countries that guard Guaidó, with the United States in the lead, or by the lack of effective control of the state's repressive apparatus, Maduro had to at least today. He was content to watch his maneuvers freely on television and to sign the defense of the head of the Bolivarian National Intelligence Service (Sebin), General Manuel Figuera. In any case, it will be necessary to pay attention in the coming days to the destiny of Guaidó.

If it is Lopez, he was seen in the trip after his release by the action of an insurgent military party the same pattern of loss of control of Chavez. On Tuesday, he showed up in public, gave interviews in the street, was greeted by supporters and protected first at the Chilean embbady, ​​then at the embbady. # 39; Spain. It is clear that the government lost control of part of Caracas for several hours.

Rocío San Miguel, President of the NGO Control Ciudadano for Security, Defense and National Armed Forces, told Ámbito de Caracas that "The situation is a hangover: there are 83 detainees, 69 wounded, two murdered, a closed radio, two international channels without an antenna and 13 journalists attacked."

The military specialist said that "the uprising was avoided … although it is difficult to categorize what happened."

With everything, he insisted, "There is a political approach that has not yet been decided by the military world.Maduro is not able to establish new incentives for loyalty and its influence and control over it." 39; army are exercised with methods that are not pleasant for the institution. " According to him, "he is waiting for important sectors of the National Armed Forces to know what the future will bring them with Guaidó.This plan has not yet been explained."

The conclusion is that the division of the barracks is still latent. Many look, in this sense, at the strong man of the FANB and Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López, as a key player. His loyalty to Maduro allowed him to survive again.

It remains to be seen now how Chavismo is metabolizing this primacy of his military wing and, when confronted with hyperinflation, scarcity, electrical collapse and productive paralysis, he is able to do so. imagine a political transition.