The first month of Bolsonaro, between several problems and little success

RIO DE JANEIRO.- Suspicions of corruption, a first dull international trip, marches and counter marches, a human and ecological tragedy, internal differences, a surgical operation, some symbolic measures for its support base … the first month of management

Jair Bolsonaro

It was full of problems and bore little fruit.

In any case, the real challenges begin now, with the adoption of the new Congress, which will be decisive in defining the fate of the administration of the ultra-right president of Brazil.

"It was not a good start, January was marked by a series of inconveniences that made it difficult for the government and showed a lack of preparation." It was a new team, with no management experience, and so we were expecting it to be not brilliant.The first signs are not good.The positive point is that there is always a favorable climate, a honeymoon that can cushion the impact and give Bolsonaro time to adapt to Plbadto's palace, "he said.
THE NATION the badyst Paulo Calmon, professor of political science at the University of Brasilia.

The great surprise of the beginning of the new Brazilian administration was the speed with which the first suspicions of corruption in the presidential environment were raised, specifically about the eldest son of the president, the flamboyant Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Even before his father took power, it was revealed that a former advisor to Bolsonaro's son, Fabricio Queiroz, had carried out suspicious cash transactions that were not condemned either with his salary or with his heritage. Investigations later revealed that Flavio Bolsonaro had himself created many curious banking movements when he was a deputy in Rio, and that possible links with the fearsome militias of the Carioca had been uncovered. All this with an elected president with the flags of the fight against corruption and crime, and change with "all that was there".

Until now, doubts about the case are still not clearly explained. However, the headlines on "Zero Um" (01, as Bolsonaro nicknamed his eldest son) were eclipsed by the crash of the Brumadinho mine waste dam. Bolsonaro has been active and determined in the face of the human and environmental tragedy and has avoided, for the moment, a greater political erosion.

The president's participation in the World Economic Forum in Davos, however, was disappointing, which was an excellent presentation to the international company, the elite of investors and world leaders that Bolsonaro was trying to impress. His presentation was very short, very vague and left more questions than certainties about how he would recover the South American giant's economy. And to top it off, he canceled at the last minute a press conference with his senior ministers, which could have served to mitigate his poor performance on stage.

Meanwhile, within the government, the first short circuits began to appear: the president announced a tax increase that was subsequently denied by one of the members of the economic team; The Minister of the Economy, the neoliberal Paulo Guedes, has prepared a comprehensive pension reform, but the military has refused to be included. Bolsonaro announced that he would move the Brazilian embbady in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, although later, in the face of criticism and warnings from the Arab and Muslim world, the vice president, General Hamilton Mourão , badured that there would be no move for the moment. The proposal for large privatizations including the Public Communication System (BCS) was still being "restructured". And Bolsonaro's warning that he would pull Brazil out of the Paris climate change agreement has evaporated after the recalculation of the government's anti-environmentalist rhetoric that forced the Brumadinho disaster, who left more than 115 dead and 248 missing in the mud due to control failures at the Vale mining company.

Arms

Now, with Bolsonaro coming out of his hospital bed after the operation, he was to undergo last Monday the colostomy bag that he had been using since the attack of a knife in the countryside The only major measure approved by the government, by decree, was a relaxation of the rules on the possession of weapons. A campaign promise and a nod to its base was mostly symbolic: it left disgruntled arms sectors that advocated greater liberalization.

There have been other rule changes, some disturbing that alter the law of access to information, others of the restructuring of the functions of the ministries that cause fears among the organizations non-governmental, but nothing has been up to here radical and ideological.

"The government has been cautious, more moderate than it thought, or even hesitant, perhaps because it still does not know what to do, what its strategy will be, maybe because of differences within the administration, "said Fernando Schüler, professor at the institute of teaching and research Insper.

For the academic, Bolsonaro enjoys a "credit" in all voters who voted in October. "He has been very successful in nurturing expectations, especially in the markets, although there is nothing concrete at the moment," he said, explaining that social pressure is currently weak because the economy is in the process of recovering thanks to the reforms and government of Michel Temer, which has significantly reduced inflation (3.6%) and gradually reduces unemployment (12.3%).

The big test for the government will be its working relationship with Congrego. Many new legislators have entered, far removed from the traditional political clbad, young people, it is unclear how they will work in a very fragmented Parliament, in which the ruling Liberal Social Party (PSL) has 55 deputies out of a total of 513 and four out of 81 senators.

"There is a risk that the political articulation will become a minefield, with divisions that hinder legislative activity, but it is hoped that the president, who has served for 27 years as a deputy, will be able to to lead the negotiation process with the Congress. " Calmon, from the University of Brasilia, remarked that, despite his experiences in the lower house, Bolsonaro had only approved three of his own projects.