The foreign exchange earnings of the soybean complex will fall by US $ 1,400 million this year

The Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) subtracted US $ 1.4 billion from its forecast foreign exchange earnings from the soybean complex, bringing it to US $ 14 billion, due to falling international commodity prices. of its by-products. the trade war between the United States and China.

"Although there is a 40% increase in the export volume of the soybean complex for the 2018/20 season, the sharp drop in export prices of all components of the product makes the income of Foreign exchange External sales of beans, flour, soybean oil and biodiesel add $ 14,000 million to the new cycle, "said yesterday the entity's specialists, Desire Sigaudo and Emilce Terré.

This figure represents 18% more than last year's exports, while foreign sales were strongly affected by drought. At the same time, the decline in foreign exchange earnings was US $ 1,400 million compared to the foreign exchange earnings projected by developing country exports. soybean complex in early 2019.

"The Argentinian economy is very sensitive to this result because the soybean complex is by far the main foreign exchange contributor to the external balance," he said in a report written by specialists, since 30% of all foreign sales Argentina manufactures products and services derived from soybeans and its derivatives throughout the year.

The commercial dispute

The drop in the international price of oilseeds and their derivatives is the result of the trade dispute between the United States and China since last year, which has seen renewed vigor following the rise in tariffs. 10% to 25%. hundred percent by the North American country to some Chinese products worth 200 billion US dollars.

The price of oilseeds in the Chicago market then dropped, and last Monday, it reached minimum values ​​in more than a decade, below $ 300 a ton, even though the price of beans was in January. about $ 340 a ton.

Similarly, the escalation of the conflict has led to China's retaliation, which has reduced its tariff rate to 25% for the importation of certain US $ 60,000 million worth of goods. adding to the 25% duty applied to the country's soybeans. US tax since June of last year.

"In the midst of escalating trade tensions between the world's two major economic powers and ultimately the world's largest seller and consumer of soy, stocks have begun to accumulate on a mbadive scale. and prices have collapsed "and pbaded from 12 million to 27 million tons explained the entity.

Added to this is the swine fever epidemic of the Asian giant, which has reduced feed requirements, "adding downward pressure on the price of soybean meal."

"The United States wants to offer very cheap soy, not only have their values ​​in the international market been under a downward pressure, but also the US factories find that it is profitable to turn a larger volume, To export flour and oil, "explained the work.

According to the entity, "the largest US competition in the export markets of oil cake and soybean harms the local processing industry, eroding the margins of business ".

"This is very worrying for the health of our public accounts because soybean meal is traditionally Argentina's main export product," he added.