The gap is narrowing: only 8 pesos separate the most expensive dollar from the cheapest on the market

In a range of only 8 pesos all dollars accumulate which those looking to save can access. Between $ 142 and $ 150, they are located in MEP dollars, savings dollars, cash with cash and blue.

Last week, the European dollar, the operation which allows the acquisition of foreign currency via the Buenos Aires stock exchange, crossed the line and it was below the savings dollar. At last Friday’s close, it was about prices: MEP at $ 142, savings at $ 143.50, cash with liquidation – the transaction that takes foreign currency out of the country by buying and the sale of bonds – at 145 dollars and the blue at 150 $.

October 23, the day blue hit $ 195, the spread between those dollars was $ 57, the “savings” – the lowest at the time – at $ 138.

What happened to make the gap narrow in this way? Seasonal reasons, government intervention in the financial dollar segment and regulatory changes in the stock market have made this possible.

Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, of the consultancy firm Empiria, says that “companies are looking for disarm dollar positions to meet the payment of wages, Christmas bonuses and December bonuses. There are also active public sector interventions. Many large businesses are still unable to operate. Demand is stifled, appeased. The blue dollar is a reflection of the financial dollar. It’s a market with less liquidity, but ultimately it always ends up arbitrating. “

Nery Persichini, manager of GMA Capital, points out that “the seasonality of the demand for pesos at the end of the year play for a drop in dollar prices. Over the past 17 years, the financial dollar has fallen 0.7% on average in December, which does not happen in other months of the year. “

“For the private sector December is a month of great need for pesos, then there is less appetite for dollarization and there may even be an offer “, explains Jorge Neyro, economist at the consultancy firm ACM. In addition,” the government continues to maintain a certain vigilance in the market. “

This last point is linked to the intervention of official bodies such as the Central Bank and ANSeS which will sell bonds to lower financial dollars. And also to the more important controls – formal and informal – that they exercise over the funds and the brokerage firms.

For economist Gabriel Caamaño, from Ledesma Consultancy, this exchange rate “had an influence direct government intervention in parallel dollars, which was strong and constant, selling dollar bonds for pesos and buying dollar bonds with US dollars for over a month. To this was added “the seasonality of the demand for pesos. And while it was happening, the officer accelerated his march and there have been several regulatory changes “.

Among these changes is the reduction of parking, the requirement to hold bonds purchased in pesos at the MEP for two days before they can be sold in dollars. This amendment entered into force at the end of November and accelerated the procedure, because before that, three working days of waiting were necessary.

In addition, it has also been established that the portfolios of brokerage firms (ALyC) they will be able to reorganize operations as clients in foreign markets without restrictions related to local trading in Cable mode (counted with cash).

For Persichini, “recent regulations relating to movements in ALyC’s portfolio have reduced the volume traded on benchmark bonds. It is more difficult to operate, despite the fact that investors have one day less parking to buy the European dollar. “

Market sources also indicate that with fewer players on the pitch, official bodies can lower the dollar stock market faster sell bonds.

Neyro specifies that “for the moment the additional monetary question which was registered in December does not influence. we will see it later, for now you can see a lot of tranquility “.

From Research for Traders, Gustavo Neffa says much of the gap reduction comes from the sale of bonds for the parking reduction. “There is a sale of AL30 bonds by the Centrale and the ANSeS. Finally, there is the signs of fiscal austerity that December started with. The market sees that there is a will to come to an agreement with the IMF. ”

However, Neffa warns that the current situation, with a distance of only 8 pesos between points, it could be short lived. “The fall of the European dollar below the price of the savings dollar automatically generates a alarm signal which triggers an almost mandatory purchase recommendation from the MEP. “

QA