the gap was triggered with the "relied on liqui"

The foreign exchange market ended the week with a slight rise in prices of most of the segments that make it up, but there is no doubt that what attracted the most attention from investors was the cash, which has long surpbaded the $ 70 mark, is leading to a surge in liquidity following rumors that the new IMF payment would be delayed and the difficulties faced by some companies in converting their foreign currency.

More precisely, while the Central Bank maintained the official dollar price, the "cash bill" reached $ 74, following the last measures with which it had stopped operations known as curl.

Like this the difference in the retail exchange rate of Banco Nación reached 28%.

In addition, the obstacles faced by companies in meeting their obligations in the usual way have forced some companies to use the "cash account" option to take their money out of the country.

Another factor that would have exerted additional pressure was the payment of Letes by the BCRA today, to the savers for 100% of their possession and to the legal entities for 15% of the invoice, as a result of the rebalancing. In the city, they badumed that part of these dollars was going to foreign accounts, by cable or by "cash".

On the other hand, in Buenos Aires, the average price of the currency resulting from iProfessional's usual survey of the principal entities operating there is $ 58.44.

How does the "counted with liqui"?

In the "Liqui account", a stock or bond is purchased in local currency in the city of Buenos Aires and resold abroad in the form of greenbacks, where it is listed as ADR, leaving the money deposited outside the country.

It's a legal mechanism, so it can not be "persecuted" in the same way as blue. ADRs (American Depositary Receipts) are certificates that represent the shares of a particular company.

Although the company operates outside of the United States (eg, Argentine companies), these certificates can be purchased and sold in the New York market.

The number that follows in the city

The difference between the two courses was lower until, during the last week, it began to grow until it reached the current level.

"The counted with the liquidation was more taker.It seems that there are deadlines in pesos and that the gap is widening because all the funds that have obligations in pesos abroad do not can not come out other than through this mechanism, "says Santiago López Alfaro, partner and director of Delphos Investment.

In the same vein, Cohen's research department commented in its weekly report that they consider that "the exchange differential between the official dollar and the CDC could widen in the coming months, as the payment of peso bond coupons takes place by institutional investors from abroad who, if they could not access the foreign exchange market, would be forced to use the CCL exchange rate to repatriate the coupons collected. "

According to their calculations, 50% of the deadlines for the rest of the year (about $ 930 million) are concentrated in the month of October, before the general election.

The gap between the official price and the cash settlement is a figure they monitor in the city and some are already calculating what should be a price of equilibrium.

"Between 2012 and 2015, this exchange rate has tended to converge towards the convertibility exchange rate," says the director of Investing in the Stock Exchange and adds: "It is important that the relationship between monetary commitments and reserves the BCRA does not deteriorate, so that the gap does not increase and no longer generates inflationary pressure ".

In Consultatio, on the other hand, they tend to think "that a balance exchange difference of about 10% would seem reasonable".

Anyway, they point out that one element must be taken into account: "Up to November, a total of 2,500 million US dollars between coupons and amortization of bonds in pesos, with a significant participation of foreign holders may have cash pressure with short-term liquidation ".

It is essential to monitor this gap for the exchange rate observed by the market, as the official price tends to converge as soon as possible on the shadow price in dollars.

"The dollar will still jump"

In this context, a report from Economy & Regions warns that "the dollar will jump even earlier, but this time, it will jump faster (and stronger) than on the last two occasions. "

What are they based on to draw this badysis? In the dynamics of the interest rate, which decreases less and less in the phase of stability and goes up more in the phase of exchange and monetary imbalance ", which results in a lower credibility and a faster anticipation of the other instability. "

"According to our vision, the real exchange rate has an upward trajectory in Argentina. you have to expect a dollar more expensive in real terms. That is to say, we must anticipate a near future in which it will cost more to Argentineans to buy the American currency.", they put.

For the consultant's badysts, "the adverse effects of the current monetary economic policy, that we could summarize as follows:" bank the dollar at any price and whatever the cost and stocks that matter more ", do not there are no others that increase the likelihood of the risk of hyperinflation, making it closer in time ".

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