The geopolitical interests of Russia and China in the face of the crisis in Venezuela

The international impact of the situation in Venezuela has been immense. The proclamation of Juan Guaidó as interim president has divided the waters between those who still support Nicolás Maduro (Russia, China, Cuba, Iran and Turkey), who seek a path of dialogue and mediation between the government of Nicolás Maduro and the opposition (Mexico and Uruguay) and those who wish a democratic transition, although preferably without Maduro, including the government of Donald Trump and the Lima group countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Colombia .

The institutional crisis has not only embarrbaded Maduro, but has also affected its two main strategic partners: China and Russia.. Their links are not new. Since Hugo Chávez, the two powers have developed multiple activities mainly related to the hydrocarbon sector.

Russia has been key to Venezuela's international strategy, in which Igor Sechin it is the central figure of the bilateral cooperation program. As CEO of Rosneft (the largest energy company after Gazprom) and one of the men of the restricted circle of Vladimir Putin, simplified investments of millions of dollars in this sector which, along with loans and lines of credit, would add about 17 billion dollars, according to badyst Vladimir Rouvinski. A little more than a year ago, Venezuela was forced to renegotiate part of its debt, while oil production was declining.

Given the level of commitments made, the case of Venezuela was discussed Friday in the Security Council of the Russian Federation led by Putin. It is not a question of political affinity, but of business.

Military cooperation is another of the most controversial areas, for which Venezuela has bought rifles for Sukhoi Su-30 modern fighters. A few months ago, Russia deployed two strategic bombers with nuclear capability in Venezuela, while the Russian press was referring to negotiations on the use of a permanent squadron at the base. from La Orchila. The latest reports speak of the arrival of Russian military "subcontractors".

In the case of China, economic cooperation has been even greater. In the last ten years, according to data from The Financial Times, Beijing lent more than 50 billion dollars between credits and loans, while the debt with this power exceeds 20 billion US dollars. However, he has not shown any intention of increasing his bets in relation to the military factor.

China rejected "foreign interference" in Venezuela's internal affairs. He is very concerned both about the future of Venezuela's current economy's inability to meet its financial and energy commitments and about mistrust of society. a possible regime change that ignores signed agreements.

Beyond rhetoric, the situation is not very favorable for China or Russia. Although the Maduro government has not fully complied with the payment of debt and the supply of crude oil, its biggest fear is that a political change will cause them to lose their important investments, in addition to the loss. from a key partner in the region.

(*) Executive Secretary of the International Studies Center of the Argentine Catholic University (CEI-UCA).