The government has promised that gas will increase by less than 30% this year

The national government confirmed in December that the expected increase in residential gasoline for next April would be about 35%. The announcement was made by the resignation secretary of energy Javier Iguacel. Things have changed in less than two months, because today, his new successor has denied it. The current energy secretary, Gustavo Lopetegui, predicts that the gas increase will be slightly lower. "Consumers are not going to pay increases of more than 30% this year, and we expect the increases to be lower than this value," said the newly arrived head of Santa Cruz de la Sierra, Bolivia, to whom he went exclusively to renegotiate a $ 1.2 billion contract for natural gas export for 20 years.

After the statements of Lopetegui, TN.com.ar consulted with energy specialists and gas distributors. Not at all out of the record, companies admit that the government is very optimistic when badyzing the situation of public services. "I see it's difficult, unless they have an official resolution in their sleeves this helps the price does not exceed inflation, "says the director of a distribution company.

Experts say, "The gas at the wellhead was more expensive than in 2018. The current price is $ 4.62 for a government-defined exchange rate that will be higher than that of the government." ;last year". Another badyst added that this sum should add to it 22% of the wholesale price of distributors and carriers. "If the agreements established in the global tariff revision (ITR) are met, the annual increase in gas should be greater than 50% in 2019," says another technician on this site.

The Secretary of Energy has badured that his estimates are correct and that the cumulative increase should not exceed 30% in 2019. This figure coincides with the annual inflation ceiling predicted by some economists for this year. But distributors are wary of Lopetegui's badysis and ask loudly whether the government plans to take measures that help reduce the price of natural gas at home.

Another business man insists that the numbers treated in Energy do not close. "It seems to me that they are arguing that today the total variable load (gas, transportation and distribution) is $ 7 to $ 8 per cubic meter (m3) excluding taxes, and for April, this calculation was estimated at $ 10. With these figures, it is virtually impossible that the cumulative increase for the year is 30%, "says the head of an indoor distributor.

In the largest natural gas distribution company, they recalled that their calculations forecast an average increase of 40% for April and a similar increase for October. For one of the experts who knows the details of the RTI, The estimate of Lopetegui is "rare". As he explained to this media, "we will have to see what they imagine, their number," he says.

Consulted by this gradual increase, in two installments scheduled for April and October, Lopetegui confirmed to TN.com.ar that the first increase will be defined after the next public hearing on February 26th. "There will be a first increase in April, well below what was said, and a second adjustment in December.In total, it should be less than 30%," said the number one energy .

The national gas regulatory entity (Enargas) convened a public hearing to discuss the discussed rate hike. The call lasts ten days at the Metropolitan Design Center in Barracas. As usual, there will be three virtual participation centers outside the city: Neuquén, Tierra del Fuego and Bahía Blanca.

Those who know the market are encouraged to predict that the second hike will have been postponed from October to December, so the impact of this hike is not felt on the measure of inflation. 2019. "This increase will be between January and February 2020," speculates a businessman.

Auctions

Gas distributors participated in the first auction on Thursday. It was a price competition regulated by the Electronic Gas Market (MEGSA), an entity that depends on the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. The State's objective is for the purchase of residential gas (housing) to be stable and for the price to be maintained for 12 consecutive months, between April of this year and the same month of 2020. The Energy Secretariat has explained 50% of the bill for residential users.

Increases planned for 2019