The government is betting its future on the "ideal semester" plan

Among the multiple probes

electoral

circulating in recent days, and which reflects a geography much more abrupt than expected by the

Government

there was a job that generated real concern. One of the most recognized consultants found a crack in Cambiemos' main public work: the ceiling of

Cristina

. Depending on the work done, the proportion of people who say they never vote would be reduced to 40%.

The data clearly indicate that January and February were not what President Mauricio Macri and his team had imagined. And the reason is exclusively economic. The Discursive Army of the Oficialismo raised that 2018 was a
Annus Horribilisthree shocks (financial crisis, drought and notebooks), but with the new program agreed with the

MFIs

the country could start again in 2019 on the road of recovery.

However, the economic activity has clearly shown signs of tension, both in the retail sector (sales fell by 11.9% in February, according to CAME) and in industry and construction (10, 8% and 15.7% less). respectively, according to the inter-annual comparison of Indec).

Added to this is the fact that inflation has exceeded 6% in the first two months of the year. All economic actors agree that the number was surprisingly high and exceeded the calculations of the private sector, but also those of the government. "It's true, it was a bit higher than we expected," they told the Ministry of Finance. "Nobody expected that much, it's a big mystery for everyone, even for the IMF," admitted a former Macrist official.

There is no chance on the reasons and the effects. While Minister Nicolás Dujovne attributes this to the increase in meat and the effect of tariffs, in the private sector it is more related to the delayed reordering of values ​​to the 100% devaluation and, for some untimely, to the announcement of the widespread increase end-of-year services.

Orlando Ferreres even adds another factor that explains the commercial psychology of Argentina: instead of reducing prices, the decline in consumption leads employers to highlight the need to maximize profits with fewer sales. At the Treasury, they ensure that values ​​will be accepted from April to May, once adjustments to services and transportation are completed, but private adjustments will be more skeptical. The forecasts are already starting from an annual floor of 30%. "It will be more than the 23% budgeted, it can cost 29. The budget was prepared in August, with projections from that time," they defend the government.

Without saying so publicly, by abandoning Federico Sturtzenegger's infamous inflation goals, Macri has stopped being obsessed with rising prices and has diverted the attention of his attention to the value of the dollar. Lessons learned from last year 's crisis: 1) You can not achieve all goals at the same time. 2) There is nothing more to sensitize society than sudden devaluations. This is why a central indication of economic administration fell during the campaign: it may admit inflationary laxity or accept a slow exit from the recession, but there is no room for unforeseen fluctuations in the exchange rate. And that is exactly what happened this week.

For the political and economic world, it was not so worrying that the rise of more than 6% of the dollar (which partly fell on Friday), if it is considered consistent with inflation. The important thing was to revive this perception of vulnerability to the instability of global markets. There may have been an excess of anxiety in anticipating lower interest rates.

"We are structurally calm, we want to avoid volatility, but our program is not based on the exchange rate delay," he dramatized at the end of the week as an important official, in the straight line of what Dante Sica had said Thursday in public. This is the point where the economy becomes imperfect when it is crossed by social psychology. The small investor who is dissatisfied with the currency listing is having trouble understanding the transfer of emerging markets to China. Only seek refuge.

The government has always maintained that the economy will not win the elections, but that it should not cause defeat either. This threshold has again been questioned these days because the ghost of a crucial question has reappeared: Macri is he in total control of the economy, does he know where he is going? The weak voter of Cambiemos, who will continue to evaluate until the last moment he renews the loan, needs clear signals that current suffering makes sense. The government no longer reaches the words when it begins to filter out the social bad mood.

Faced with this scenario, the official laboratory is preparing to face an unprecedented experience: campaigning without giving in to adjustment. "Even if we have elections, we can not stop the program we agreed on in September," Dujovne told his environment to face the demands of rethinking, such as his radical friends repeated on Monday.

Jaime Durán Barba will face a daunting challenge for zero deficit and zero monetary expansion. There will only be room for small concessions, such as the anticipated increase in AUH or increased credit. Microkirchnerismo.

The eye of the IMF remains attentive. The agency's directory remains concerned about the level of exposure in Argentina: a historic loan of $ 57,000 million, which was only possible for Donald's board of directors Trump. Hence the clarification this week that regardless of the winner of the elections, the Fund will maintain its program in Argentina.

To offset the effects of fiscal and monetary restraint, the Treasury is preparing the "ideal semester" plan, which runs from May to October. For this, he seeks to match a series of economic variables that would generate a feeling of well-being with an anesthetic effect on the elector.

According to his estimates, inflation would be curbed as the latest tariff increases will have an impact in April; the purchasing power would be recovered as a result of joint payments and pension updates; the surplus dollar disbursements of the IMF and the winding up of a record crop (they expect between $ 9 and $ 10 billion, or 45% more than last year) and a slight recovery of the activity of hands not only in the countryside but also in energy investments, transport, regional economies and even construction (data on the increase in cement shipments in February were very famous in Olivos).

It looks a lot like an electoral restraint plan. For the government, on the other hand, these are the pillars of the final takeoff. However, in key ministries charged with the functioning of the Argentine economy, they admit that, in the event that Macri wins the elections, his second term would require in-depth reforms, as the current model would not be viable. long-term. Structural changes in the areas of labor, social security and taxation are on the horizon. We will see if, as Macri told Congress, the country's growth is better than in 2015.