Naaju Breaking News, Live Updates, Latest Headlines, Viral News, Top Stories, Trending Topics, Videos
[ad_1]
The basic idea of the government in the issue of forward currencies is that currencies are available to the maximum for companies that need (and can demonstrate it) inputs to be able to produce and increase lines of investment and use of installed capacity. And for them, the more than $ 15 billion in trade surplus expected to be achieved in 2022 should be derived.
They acknowledge to the government that there is a currency shortage for key industries such as automotive, chemicals, petrochemicals and energy and that in 2022 these sectors will be prioritized in terms of demand for foreign currency.. But it is also taken into account that next year there will be a difficult dollar account to contend with: it is difficult to calculate what the need to import energy will come out, for a growing economy, it is assumed. , above 5% per year-on-year and where in some early in the second half of the year it would recover what was lost during the pandemic.
if you know that the fuel will have to be imported from abroad, on an account that the country must pay in dollars. In conclusion, the currencies generated by next year’s trade surplus will be used to finance imports to support the pace of industrial recovery. But that will not be enough for much more.
Even taking into account the fact that there are no significant private sovereign debt maturities in the calendar for next year and that the only significant maturing to come, that of over US $ 4,000 million in the IMF in March, should be released by agreement with the international financial body. If the extended reloaded facilities were negotiated before the end of the year, the US $ 1.8 billion expected to be paid into the Standby Fund signed in 2018 would also remain in cash.
The “hard” version of the locks will meet the month that begins this week a year. It was at the end of the first half of September, during the most important race suffered by the government of Alberto Fernández and in which the restrictive position of the head of the BCRA, Miguel Pesce, was imposed on the most flexible of the minister. of Economy Martín Guzmán.
The first imposed the need to sit on reserve dollars and defend firepower. Time has proven that this is the right strategy. At least so that the exchange rate policy is credible and defensible in the still difficult arena of the local financial market. Politically, it is also considered that the cepo “hard” it is already accepted by society, and it does not generate major protests from an audience already adapted to the restrictions.
It is also considered within the Government, that the slight outflows of stocks are welcome and that there is no major pressure. In any case, it will be blue and the markets where you have to be careful; especially if in 2022 the demand for foreign currency increases.
All of this was realistically recognized by Pesce. Before a specially informed and decision-making audience (the Council of the Americas), he said last Thursday that “the country needs to export more and it is a permanent invocation when we meet businessmen. As we export more and build reserves, we will continue to ease restrictions. “
Source link
