The IMF maintains its 30.5% inflation calculation for the year and warns that the country remains vulnerable to global risks

The Argentine economy is facing not only internal demons such as inflation, recession and the need for further cuts to meet the government's balanced budget goal, but also will have to navigate this year in rough seas, in which the global economy will develop less than in 2018, but it will resume over the year and will remain in 2020, according to the new projections of the International Monetary Fund.

In fact, according to these same estimates, contained in the semi-annual report on the outlook for the global economy (WEO, in English) presented today in the US capital, "the gradual stabilization" of the situation in the US. emerging economies They face difficulties, "including those of Argentina and Turkey", they will contribute, along with other factors, to the resumption of global economic momentum.

"The conditions will improve in 2019 as long as the stimulus packages maintain activity in China and recessionary tensions will ease in economies such as those of Argentina and Turkey. ", according to the WEO project. The global economy is expected to grow by 3.3% this year, a figure the new report is revising downward. In 2018, growth was 3.6%.

This does not mean that the IMF paints a necessarily optimistic picture for Argentina. Calculations may fail "if trade tensions intensify" between the major powers and the most vulnerable economies represent a new risk drain. The triggers for greater global uncertainty can be many, and in the midst of these dangers the country should try to stabilize its economy when an election process full of unknowns is taking place.

However, The WEO makes no mention of this year's elections in the uncertain context of the economy. Reiterates the projection of a 1.2% GDP decline this year already contained in the technical report of the third review of the program to be listening signed last year with the IMF. This report was presented last week with the approval of a new disbursement of 10 800 million dollars and, just like the projections presented today, it stresses that it is only in 2020 that the Argentine economy will experience a new growth, at a rate of 2.2%, to accelerate to 3, 6% by 2024.

Only Nicaragua, with a 5 percentage point drop in GDP, and Venezuela, with a 25% meltdown, are posting lower results than Argentina this year for all of Latin America. At the regional level, the product will grow this year by 1.4% and 2.4% next year.

The WEO also forecasts an inflation of 30.5% for 2018, as forecast by the staff report. In other words, the Fund's correction was 10 points from its previous forecast. The regional average, on the other hand, will be 5.6%. In 2020, inflation in Argentina is calculated at 21.2%. Another element to take into account is the current account deficit, which this year will be 2% and 2.5% in 2020 and up to 2024, compared to an average of 1.9% in Latin America in 2019.

"The risks for the economy are always important, andor the materialization could lead to a change of preference of the investors to distance investments in pesos and increase the pressure on the currency and the capital account"The report immediately recommends the" continued implementation of the stabilization plan "agreed with the Fund itself, which" is essential to enhance investor confidence and restore sustainable growth, "he said. .

It adds a repeated recommendation in all its badessments: "Achieve the target of primary fiscal balance in 2019 and 1% of GDP in 2020 is essential to reduce financing needs and avoid new pressures on liquidity"And with regard to inflation, he emphasizes that" the continued achievement of monetary objectives will be crucial in anchoring inflationary expectations and recreating the credibility of the Central Bank ".

The WEO was presented this morning at Fund headquarters at the start of the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings. For five days, these meetings will serve as a venue for a permanent parade of finance and finance ministers from around the world, along with senior Washington-based multilateral organizations, representatives of major investment funds, social leaders and representatives of different sectors. and economic badysts.

The Minister of Finance, Nicolás Dujovnewill arrive tomorrow in the North American capital to attend the meeting, although it has not been indicated whether it will hold a new meeting with the IMF holder, Christine Lagarde.

After the recommendations of further adjustments to balance the budget and the "disappointment" expressed by the last staff report due to persistent inflation, speculation has been made that IMF technicians may be maintaining over the next few days the ability of the central bank to intervene more decisively in the currency market , which point could be determining government's Mauricio Macri in this election year. In fact, the president of the BCRA must also go to Washington, Guido Sandleris.