The IMF provides less consumption and less investment | A …

The International Monetary Fund expects a contraction of 1.3% of the Argentine economy this year. The updated estimates of the multilateral agency represented a 0.1 percentage point reduction from the April forecast. "The Argentine economy has contracted in the first quarter of the year, though at a slower pace than in 2018. Growth forecasts for 2019 have been revised slightly." and a more moderate recovery is now expected for 2020, "he said. the IMF by updating the projections of its report on the outlook for the global economy. The figures had been anticipated in the report released last week on Argentina allowing the next disbursement of the loan. The strongest contraction is due to a larger collapse in domestic consumption and private investment, with declines of 4.8% and 17.5% respectively compared to 2018. The report confirms that the country will end the year with one of the deepest recessions in the world. And, by 2020, the Fund estimates that the economy will grow by only 1.1% from the 2.2% expected in April.

The IMF refers to Argentina as one of the few emerging economies not to control prices. "Underlying inflation has been lower than historical averages in many emerging and developing countries, except in a few cases such as those of Argentina, Turkey and Venezuela," said L & # 's 39; agency. The report released Tuesday also warns that a "worsening of tensions in major emerging markets currently plunged into difficult macroeconomic adjustment processes such as Argentina and Turkey" could trigger new episodes capital outflows from emerging economies.

The agency now expects global growth to reach 3.2% in 2019 and reach 3.5% in 2020. Both measures are 0.1 percentage point lower than forecast in April. According to the American agency David Lipton, in Latin America, "activity has slowed significantly at the beginning of the year due to idiosyncratic factors." As a result, the Fund expects only 0.6% growth in the region in 2019, 0.8 percentage point less than expected four months ago.

The most violent cut was for Brazil. The agency has reduced its estimates for this country from 2.1 to 0.8%. Such an adjustment in the projections is not due to the lack of demand or the lack of investment, but rather to the delay in approving the reform of the pension system. by the Brazilian government, in accordance with the logic of the financial markets. "The climate has deteriorated markedly due to persistent uncertainty surrounding the approval of pension reform and other structural reforms," ​​says the IMF report, underlining the need for continue the transformations of the system which, among others, increases retirement age. What is sought is to reduce budget spending, to the detriment of retirees.

The claim is similar to that contained in the reports of the Fund for Argentina. In the run-up to the presidential elections, the agency's technicians redouble rhetorical efforts to hide the planned structural reforms. The reform of the pension system is evoked elliptically in a pbadage missing from the fourth review of the confirmation agreement, as part of a package of measures needed to "improve the quality of life of Argentines" . "The trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union should help remove barriers to trade and barriers to investment. But the continuous improvement of the living conditions of the Argentine population will require a new impetus in certain areas, including the establishment of a less disruptive tax system; increase competition in national product markets; strengthen the financial situation of the public pension system and step up efforts to strengthen governance and fight against corruption, "said the agency in the document released last week. The IMF's program on the retirement system in Argentina provides for an adjustment of the initial retirement and sale of the badets of the Sustainability Guarantee Fund for the development of ANSES (FGS).

IMF estimates confirm that Argentina will record one of the world's worst recessions in 2019. The expected contraction for the country will only be overcome by falls in countries such as Venezuela, the United States. Iran, Zimbabwe, Nicaragua, Equatorial Guinea, Turkey and Sudan. Of the 195 countries surveyed by the multilateral agency, only a dozen will show negative results. The Venezuelan Economy Fund's projection projects a 35% collapse, 10 points higher than previous estimates. "The deep humanitarian crisis and the economic implosion in Venezuela continue to have a devastating impact," warned the IMF.