The impact of climate change on key areas of the global economy

"The economic implications of climate change" evaluated the effects across six impact channels. First of all, he badyzed how the sea ​​level rise This will reduce usable land on the coast by erosion or flooding. The extent of the area that could be lost and the resulting economic damage will depend mainly on two factors: the composition of the shoreline, as cliffs and rock formations resist better than sandy areas and wetlands, and the part of the this coast that is currently occupied. used for productive purposes.

Secondly, he revealed that rising global temperatures would increase the heat-related mortality and expand the geographical range of mosquitoes, ticks and fleas, insects with diseases such as malaria and dengue fever. In addition, when climate change forces people to migrate, the risk of spreading to new areas will also increase.

The increase in temperatures will also reduce the labor productivityas workers will need more days of sick leave and health care expenses will be increased. The effects of "heat stress" will vary from one country to another, with a higher incidence in those where the workforce is essentially working outside. Thus, agricultural activities will be among the most risky because of exposure to extreme heat.

Changes in precipitation patterns will also have a direct impact on the world crop yieldsalthough they are not uniform in all countries and crops, as growing seasons will be prolonged in colder and shorter climates in warmer climates. But, in general, agricultural productivity will decline in more areas than it will increase.

The tourism, a major source of income for many economies, is another variable that will be directly affected by climate. It is likely that the number of travelers increases in very cold places and decreases in those which become too hot. And that another sector of potential tourists, if the local climate improves, renounces international travel and stays close to home. They will be one of the few winners on a stage with many losers.

As a side effect, changes will occur in the demand for energy houses, where the electricity needs for air conditioners will increase. But as in general more energy is used to heat rooms than to cool them, rising temperatures will cause a sharp drop in energy demand which would drive down prices.

As the report points out in conclusion, "In the absence of comprehensive pollution mitigation measures, anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide into the Earth's atmosphere will cause global temperatures to rise and changes in rainfall patterns will affect agricultural production." and will be universally harmful to the health and productivity of the people. " workers ".

"The most frequent and intense extreme weather events will increasingly disrupt and damage infrastructure, and rising sea levels will threaten coastal communities and island nations." will intensify during the century, leading to profound changes in weather conditions around the world. "he adds.

In this scenario, an overall economic injury of u $ 54 billion in 2100 in a warming scenario 1.5 ° and of 69 billion dollars In another 2 ° above pre-industrial levels, the two barriers that limit the 195 signatory countries to the Paris Agreement 2015 to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The countries that will be seriously affected fall into two groups: hot climates to emerging economies such as Malaysia, Algeria, Philippines and Thailandand the oil producers Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman, which will face falling prices of their main product due to declining demand. India will be the hardest hit since its GDP will slow by 2.5% for "Thermal stress", its farm yields will decline and it will face higher health care costs. In Argentina, the brake could reach 0.33% of gross domestic productalthough the survey does not provide details on this figure.

In general, the the most dramatic effects of climate change on global economies will occur in the second half of the century. In percentage terms, for the powers of the northern hemisphere, the decline in productivity will be lighter and, to some extent, offset by other variables, but this report does not address the problem. One of the main threats they will face: the drastic increase in the frequency and severity of natural disasters.