The internal government of the United States: they claim that the fight between Alberto Fernández and CFK will complicate the agreement with the IMF

The strong political crisis that has been generated within the government will make it difficult to approve a long-term and flexible agreement such as that sought by President Alberto Fernández and Vice-President Cristina Kirchner.

If until the primary elections the body that directs Kristalina Georgieva – who faces his own conflict over the scandal of manipulation of a World Bank report – was convinced that the signing of an agreement would take place at least after the elections in November, doubts now mounting in Washington.

More than ever, the disbursements that the Fund must make to the country will be subordinated to the effective achievement of the objectives of the program that the Government wishes to sign.

The Fund – the staff and its partner countries – don’t feel comfortable negotiating a 10-year deal – which inevitably includes structural reforms – with a weakened government, anyway. And if there were any doubts about the implementation of the agreement that could be signed before this verbal confrontation between Alberto and Cristina, it will now be necessary to wait for the resolution (or not) of the conflict, beyond the immediate change. cabinet that is expected.

For this reason, the qualified sources consulted by Infobae in Washington and Buenos Aires, they predict that, In the best case scenario, an agreement could be signed before the end of next March, as promised by Minister Martín Guzmán, but they stressed that – more than ever – the disbursements that the Fund must make to the country will be subject to the “track record”, ie the effective achievement of the program objectives.

This is not a technical detail: Argentina is expected to pay the IMF $ 19,000 million in 2022 and in the budget sent this week to Congress not only does it not foresee this expenditure, but it also assumes that it will receive a net funding of international organizations of USD 12,500 million.

This goal – inaccessible to many economists – implies that both the IMF and the multilateral banks transfer this money to the government, beyond the to roll usual. That is to say: it demands that the country respect the new agreement to the letter, or it will be necessary to seek other sources of financing, difficult to imagine with the international voluntary debt market closed for the country.

“It is difficult to think that the president or the vice-president can put on the table a program like the one they intend to sign. And the opposition is not going to play the role that the government imagines either, because the IMF, beyond consulting other political actors, what interests it is to know what the government thinks and what that it can do, including the capacity for cohesion in this case. seems to have been damaged, ”said a former executive of the organization headed by Georgieva emphatically.

“Thinking of an agreement under these conditions is impossible, with a weak government which should have the will and the capacity to implement essential structural reforms such as those required by a ten-year program like the one the country is seeking”

Without providing details, a spokesperson for the Palacio de Hacienda indicated that the minister maintains regular contact with the Fund, while yesterday the spokesperson for the agency, Gerry Rice, I reiterated yesterday that there is dialogue but no deadlines to arrive at a happy ending.

Más categórico, otro ex representative del país indicó: “Pensar en un acuerdo en estas condiciones es imposible, con un Gobierno debil que debería tener voluntad y capacidad de implementar reformas estructurales ineludibles como las that requires a programa a 10 años como el que busca el Country”.

Halfway through, another concerned former official said that “the IMF will not want Argentina to default with such a large debt”, referring to the $ 45 billion loan granted by the government of Mauricio Macri. But he clarified that the agreement “will not be simple as President Fernández imagines”, especially after the incorporation as director of the department of the western hemisphere of Ilan Golfajn, the orthodox Brazilian economist, a staunch defender of exchange rate unification, central bank independence and rising interest rates.

“The problems of the Argentina-Brazil match for the qualifying rounds will seem small next to this confrontation», He added, in a humorous tone, without ceasing to express his concern in front of the delicate institutional situation of the country.

Georgieva’s problems

To this cataclysm inside Argentina is added the complex situation of Georgieva due to the discovery that, during his tenure at the World Bank, would have collaborated in the manipulation of data to favor the position of China in a world ranking of companies (To do business), in exchange for support from that country to capitalize the entity, according to a report from the bank itself.

Recall that the Bulgarian economist occupied the post of managing director of the bank and several experts in Washington stressed that this maneuver could not have been done without his explicit consent, which she categorically denied.

“This makes her weaker and more manageable” was the refrain of sources consulted from Washington, where the US Treasury headed by Janet Yellen He said he “will investigate” this manipulation, mainly because of the anger it provokes in Congress in this country that a multilateral organization funded mainly by North American taxpayers favors China neither more nor less.

So, If President Alberto Fernández or Minister Guzmán imagined that Georgieva could be the key to soften the close of negotiations, now their relative weight has weakened before the staff and before the board.

In any event, An experienced Argentinian negotiator put into perspective that Georgieva could be, with or without this scandal, more condescending than the main shareholders of the organization he heads: “She never told President Fernández that the agreement could be different from that signed with other countries and she just ratified this idea by appointing Ilan to head the region; I repeat: she has just appointed an orthodox economist to lead the negotiation with Argentina, ”said the local economist best connected with officials from developed countries. The rest, he said, are the fantasies that always arise far from the centers of power.

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