The international soybean price has fallen by more than 8% and is far from the peak of USD 600 per tonne recorded last month

After surpassing $ 600 per tonne on May 12, the international soybean price on the Chicago market today recorded a drop of $ 43.63 in contracts expiring next July and traded at $ 488.60 per ton, or 8.2% less than at the business conference yesterday.

According to market operators, the price of soybeans is feeling the effects of climate improvement in the United States, which also caused the fall of nearly 16 dollars for corn, whose contract expiring in July was trading at 249, 20 dollars per ton. Finally, in cereals, wheat fell by 8.73 USD and the July position was 234.79 USD per tonne, due to the effects of the decline in corn and soybeans, and also due to an increase in exports. of wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan in 2021/22 showed by a Reuters poll.

The soybean market is also affected by reports of a biofuel policy change that could take some relief from refineries, but operators are watching the initiative with fear due to the size of the sector in demand. In addition, the strength of the US dollar has been added by the decisions of the Federal Reserve.

In this context, the Rosario Stock Exchange yesterday published a report in which it pointed out that with the current level of prices, agro-industrial exports would generate revenues of $ 35,058 million, or about $ 1,687 million less. than expected in May. In this sense, the soy complex’s exports would reach $ 22,325 million, with soybean cake / pellets standing out as the main export product, contributing 53% of the total. And if current values ​​are maintained, the aforementioned sector would bring in $ 8,025 million more than in 2020.

Regarding “net” exports from the Argentinian agro-industrial sector (excluding temporary soybean imports), they would reach 32,825 million USD by 2021. This represents a decrease of 1,737 million USD compared to the estimate of May and 10 800 million USD more than the value of net exports. exports achieved in 2020.

On the other hand, in its weekly report, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange today updated data on the progress of the agricultural campaign. Compared to the big 2020/2021 season, the maize harvest reached 42.3% of the planted area and the production estimate remains at 48 million tonnes, or about 3.5 million tonnes less than in the previous cycle. In addition, the soybean harvest has already reached 99.4% of the area, with yields of 26.7 quintals per hectare and an estimated harvest of 43.3 million tonnes.

The Buenos Aires Stock Exchange survey also highlighted the progress of the sowing of winter crops for the 2021/2022 cycle. Wheat plantings have already reached 57.4% of a projected area of ​​6.5 million hectares, and so far 19.3% of the projected barley area of ​​1.15 million hectares has been sown.

Corn campaign

And for the 2021/2022 season, corn could be turned into a crop with a nice expansion. This was reflected in the latest Rosario Stock Exchange report, which highlights the great commitment of the producer. “At the moment, a great investment by the producer is showing, betting on the next corn. It is very likely that we are facing a new technological leap: there is a tendency to add more lots with advanced technological management, ”they indicate in the report. The objective, they stress, is to conquer a new level of yield if the weather is nice or, on the contrary, to lose as little as possible with a well-nourished crop.

“El horizonte productivo es 54.1 millones de toneladas, es decir, a 5% más de volumen que el record productivo del 2018/19 y 2019/20 (ambas campañas obtuvieron una cosecha de 51.5 millones de toneladas)”, señaló The document. In this sense, the specialists clarified that without the La Niña scenario, like last year, it is estimated that there will be an interannual growth of 5%, therefore, the area planted with maize for the 2021/22 season would reach a total of 7.73 million hectares, 6.73 of commercial cereals, the average yield of which is estimated at 80.4 quintals per hectare.

Alberto Morelli, president of the Maize and Sorghum Association, said that in the middle of a year considered “neutral” for crops, it is believed that the scenario could be favorable and clarified that there is no report indicating that it is difficult to find seeds. “It may be a specific hybrid, because the pre-campaign has already passed. The truth is that there will be no shortage of seeds and it is expected that this season the area planted to maize will increase between 3% and 5% because you have an international price “, He said.

“Maize had a good price in the market, due to a situation of international stocks, where Argentina dropped expected tons, Brazil fell by 10 million tons, China went out to buy 15 million tonnes and there is talk of buying 18 million tonnes. This extremely tight market is what is now starting to move the producer, “he said.

For Morelli, the climate scenario will be decisive for the next season, where the yield should drop by 6%, despite the fact that the areas are very close. And although corn is better positioned than soybeans, he said, that could reflect an unfavorable 12% return in a “neutral” year. “This growth in the region has to do with everything that is happening internationally, but the price is due to the intersection of growth in supply and demand. Producers are betting a little more because they see the positive international climate, ”he explained.

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