The investigations are pithy with Macri | I can not …

The slogan of Mauricio Macri,We return itIt seems impossible. Not a consultant among the twelve who spoke with Page / 12 sees the chances of a rollover or that the vote is necessary. The unanimous opinion is that the tour only consolidates the vote, especially with the kiss to the handkerchief and the calls for drug trafficking or criminal law. As a result, the difference tends to be extended, not reduced, in the context of the economic disaster. These are the diagnoses.

Hugo Haime, de Haime and Associates, is adamant.

"Macri has no chance of reversing the result. The only thing that is under discussion is the level of difference. The latest known studies show that it was developed rather than shrunk. However, you must always be attentive. We remember what happened in 2015. A significant portion of those who had not voted at ASP voted for Macri. But it was an election where, in the first round, there were only three points of difference. We are talking about 16 points here. In my opinion, it is to know how much Alberto will win and what will Macri's fate be. "

Eduardo Fidanza, from Polyarchyagrees that "Macri's chances of reelection are very low. there is no improvement in the indicators that affect the vote: one third supports Macri and two thirds miss him. Secondly, the post-STEP analysis shows that the voting fidelity is very high in the two main forces, which means that There will be no significant changes. There is also no leakage of third party votes to Macri and those who did not attend the vote for the primaries will vote in the same manner as those who attended the vote.. This leads to the conclusion that the tour can have a loyalty effect on the electoral base and can allow the addition of votes, but they can not change the predictable outcome that would lead Fernandez to the presidency in the first round. "

For Roberto Bacman from CEOP"The chances of the election being turned around are very rare, and I would add that our polls do not detect any significant electoral effect on the presidential tour. your goal is more to support your own core after the coup at the polls in August and the potential drainage of angry peripheral voters. This also explains the right turn and the return to the promises. "

Federico Aurelio, from Arescohe sees that "the election differences of the STEP leave the road almost closed, without the need for a vote. Government action and the intensification of the economic crisis do not improve social humor it would require a change. The modality of the Macri campaign, with the squares and discursive axes of its protagonists, does not attract the non-elector of Cambiemos. It's a campaign more geared towards activism and belonging to the electorate itself than to those who did not vote for them. "

Raúl Timerman, from the opinion groupmaintains: "Voting is impossible, especially since there is no chance that FdeT will not get 45%. The president seems to be campaigning, playing the role of candidate and meeting Alberto Fernández with unions and businessmen. Take government decisions. These are reversed roles. Alberto, already on the verge of being president, makes fewer promises and is working more on plans, ideas and concepts. Macri, further and further away from the government, with promises that are risky, hard to keep, that have no credibility. It is a goodbye tour, difficult to add more voters. I think that the July 9 mobilization prepared by Macri tries to imitate the place left by CFK in 2015. "

Analía Del Franco, from DFCargues that "the party in power seems to be mobilized to maintain and respond to its electorate, its right-wing discourse would be part of the same process and would also help to reach a sensitive electorate, that of Gomez Centurión and that of José Luis But the result This attempt will not succeed, given that lost the essential in the electorate that is the trust and credibility. "

Artemio López, from Equis, start pithy. "The game is over, Mauritius The October elections do not allow to change the order of preferences STEP. The FF formula will be a majority exceeding fifty percent. The acts of the president and the right-hand twist of the ruling party's message are legitimate electoral movements that have influence only in the margin. The demand of the unstable electorate, many of whom fell from the ruling party, concerns socio-economic management capacity and not ideology ".

Gustavo Córdoba, of Cordoba and Associates, diagnoses that "the move to right-wing positions is logical, because he is convinced that the electoral result can not be reversed and tries to give an ideological structure to his own electoral core." In more electoral contexts Competitive Change always, I seek the ideological center to develop the election harvest. The tour is a discovery of traditional ways of doing politics and it looks like something very naive and late".

For Ricardo Rouvier"There is no likelihood of canceling the results of the STEP. the FdeT benefit has been extended to more than 45%. The change of strategy of the party in power is due to the awareness of the situation of defeat in front of the public opinion and the factors of being able. The most aggressive style of direct contact and victory in the street seeks to ratify the vote itself and get a weak vote from third party candidates Espert, Gomez Centurion. However, he does not regret the voters of the winning insurance ".

Alfredo Serrano from Celag, believes that "Macri has an irreversible problem: the low credibility (72%), which is partly explained by its great inefficiency.It raises many negative feelings (rejection and disappointment ).And beyond the electoral scenario, Macri has a fundamental political problem: it is impossible for him to agree with the progressive common sense that exists in Argentine society.. This is why his tour has only an effect on his hard core, probably thinking of what will follow. "

Enrique Zuleta Puceiro, from the OPSM, analyze it "yes by turn the choice It is understood that to force the vote, the answer is negative. The polarization has reached the most extreme extremes of Argentine democratic history. That much, the two forces concentrate 84% of the votes and the differences reach more than 20 points. Under these conditions, the FdeT will exceed 45% and in any case will double the difference of 10% fixed by the Constitution. However, the FdeT seems more concerned with consolidating the unity of Peronism than by expressing the overall opposition vote and perhaps Macri's strategists want to progress in this domain.
The tour seeks to reconquer smaller parts of the lost electorate and do it with an ideological base. This effort does not seem to be reflected in the votes. However, at a stage when the reelection dream has been left, it can function as an orderly fiction. "

Shila Vilker, from Trespuntozeroasserts that "the news is bad for the ruling party." The paso's tendency seems to be irreversible, and after the primaries he announced a series of silly and crazy, aimed at helping the most vulnerable sectors. This battery of pseudopopulist ads, full of gears and countermarches has not paid off. This inexplicable trick was intended to capture the natural electorate of his opponent. Unforeseen turns on the roads are generally risky. The last round – kissing the celestial handkerchief, controlling the population, extending civic service – tries to capture the most conservative and avoid the diaspora of its members. It is also an area in which the government feels more comfortable. In the same way, the election is already played at the head of the voters ".

Facundo Nejamkis of Opina Argentina states that "the presidential elections were defined on August 11. Of course, it is possible that the distance is extended in favor of the FdeT formula or also, although less likely, that the gap is reduced. there is no time or conditions for this result to change dramatically. The tour If we can allows the ruling party to face the last stage of the election campaign with an optimistic spirit, a speech that, in the language of football, is called to die with ours. At the same time, he consolidates the nucleus of his alliance, he functions as a compress containing the blood of the electors. "